UFC on FOX 3: Info and Predictions for Every Fight on the Card

This weekend the UFC returns to network television with UFC on Fox 3 from the Izod Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Headlined by a lightweight fight between Jim Miller and Nate Diaz, the card is built around exciting fights that will leave fans in awe. 

The card features some quality prospects as well as an interesting middleweight fight between Alan Belcher and Rousimar Palhares, which could have title implications for the winner. 

The 12-fight fight card kicks off at 4:00 PM ET and will run until approximately 10:00 PM ET. 

Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola

Opening up UFC on FOX 3 is a middleweight fight between New Jersey's own Mike Massenzio againt Karlos Vemola.

Mike Massenzio entered the UFC with some hype, as he was one of the top prospects in the IFL. Unfortunately for Massenzio, he's never fully reached expectations.

A solid wrestler with above-average grappling, he's been a middle-of-the-road fighter in his seven-fight UFC career. The last time fans saw him, he was getting thrown to the sharks in his fight against Rousimar Palhares at UFC 142. 

Karlos Vemola is an absolutely massive middleweight and like Massenzio, he entered the promotion with a bit of hype. A huge selling point on Vemola has been that he's a six-time Czech wrestling champion. However, any fan that has seen Vemola fight knows that his skills are vastly overstated. He has decently heavy hands and is very strong for his size, but he has shown that his biggest weakness is his wrestling. 

I expect that Mike Massenzio picks up a win in front of the Jersey crowd by using his wrestling and ground skills to wear out the Czech before finishing the fight with a submission. 

Prediction: Mike Massenzio by submission in the second round

Roland Delorme vs. Nick Denis

In the second preliminary fight of the evening, Canadians Roland Delorme and Nick Denis meet in bantamweight action.

Roland Delorme was a cast member on Season 14 of The Ultimate Fighter as a member of Team Mayhem. Delorme is a very lanky submission specialist who is equally dangerous working from an opponent's guard. He has pretty basic striking, but his reach allows him to work from range. This will be his second fight in the UFC after successfully defeating Josh Ferguson at the The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale. 

Nick Denis has fought at both bantamweight and featherweight in his MMA career and found some success overseas while fighting in Sengoku. Primarily a stand-up fighter, Denis possesses the power in his hands to put his opponents to sleep at any time. His submission game is mostly used for defensive purposes in order to stay out of danger when on the ground. 

This is an interesting matchup between two rangy bantamweights. Delorme has the clear advantage on the ground, while Denis has the striking to put Roland away early. 

Prediction: Roland Delorme weathers the early storm and finishes the fight with an arm bar in the second round

Dennis Bermudez vs. Pablo Garza

In the opening bout of the Fuel TV broadcast, Ultimate Fighter veterans Dennis Bermudez and Pablo Garza square off in a featherweight fight. 

Dennis Bermudez was not expected to make it on the 14th installment of The Ultimate Fighter when he was matched up against Jimmie Rivera in the elimination round. Rivera gassed in the first round and Bermudez came back to win in the second. Bermudez is the typical wrestle-boxer. He has strong takedowns and heavy ground-and-pound. His submission defense and striking defense on the feet remain big holes in his overall game, however. 

Pablo Garza was expected to be a contestant on the Season 12 of The Ultimate Fighter but was eliminated in the opening round by Michael Johnson. As a touted prospect, he was still given an opportunity to fight in the UFC and has impressed fans with his style in the Octagon.

A very tall featherweight, Garza has a dynamic submission game and dangerous knees from the clinch. A huge concern is that he lacks submission defense and is prone to tap-outs.

Based on what we've seen so far in their UFC careers, this should be a fairly even scrap between two young fighters. My expectation is that Garza is just too creative in his offense and won't let Dennis Bermudez establish his game.

Prediction: Pablo Garza by submission in the first round

Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish

In the second fight of the Fuel TV broadcast, Danny Castillo takes on John Cholish. 

Danny Castillo has quickly become one of the most reliable fighters in Joe Silva's rolodex, as he's willing to step up on short notice to fight anyone in the division. A member of Team Alpha Male, Castillo is a strong wrestler with solid takedowns against the cage.

He's worked on his striking since his days in the WEC and has made himself into a complete fighter, though he's still most dangerous when working ground-and-pound from an opponent's guard. 

John Cholish is a member of Team Renzo Gracie and a student under John Danaher. After losing his first pro fight, Cholish has reeled off eight straight wins, with only one going to decision. He's a very dynamic submission specialist and is known for breaking down his opponents' submission defense. His striking is still very rudimentary, which will become a major issue as he progresses in his career. 

I think at this point in their respective careers Castillo has too much experience. He has a very solid fight IQ and won't put himself in a position to get submitted. This is a case of too much too soon for Cholish. 

Prediction: Danny Castillo defeats John Cholish by unanimous decision

Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker

Flyweights Louis Gaudinot and John Lineker meet on the Fuel TV broadcast. 

Louis Gaudinot made his way to the UFC like many fighters as a competitor on The Ultimate Fighter. A member of the 14th season, he fought above his natural weight class for the opportunity to receive a UFC contract. He was bodied in his UFC debut by Johnny Bedford but showed that he's incredibly tough in that performance. He's a solid wrestler and is active on the ground.

John Lineker is making his UFC debut after ruling the regional scene in Brazil and is a relative unknown. The former bantamweight champion of Jungle Fights hasn't lost a fight since 2009 and has 11 finishes in his 19 wins.

He makes his flyweight debut after fighting at bantamweight, where he used his speed to his advantage to outwork opponents. He doesn't really have any noticeable holes but those may be exposed when he no longer has the speed advantage on Saturday night. 

Lineker has never faced as tough of a wrestler as Gaudinot, and there's also the very real possibility that fighting on such a big stage will cause those awful "Octagon jitters."

Prediction: Louis Gaudinot by split decision

John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss

In welterweight action, John Hathaway meets Pascal Krauss on the Fuel TV prelims. 

It's been over a year since John Hathaway has fought in the UFC Octagon due to some extensive undisclosed injuries. Hathaway is part of the new breed of British fighters that are solid all-around instead of having those gaping holes in their wrestling.

The big concern for Hathaway is his health. Undisclosed injuries could mean absolutely anything, but if he's entering the fight at less than 100 percent, he could be in for either a long night or an incredibly short one. 

Pascal Krauss is one of the top fighters out of Germany and is a keystone of the UFC's advancement into that market. Like Hathaway, he's part of the new breed of complete fighters that are coming out of Europe and he's known for his ability to finish fights both on the feet and on the ground.

The only real concern regarding Krauss is that he doesn't have any big-fight experience. Not having that to fall back on when faced with adversity could be what gives him his first career loss. He also is coming off of an injury and hasn't fought in a year-and-a-half. 

I'm legitimately interested in this fight as they are both highly touted European prospects. I like Krauss in this fight due to his finishing ability on the ground and feet. The big concern is ring rust, and based on how long they've both been out, we could see a very sloppy fight. 

Prediction: Pascal Krauss by submission in the second round

John Dodson vs. Tim Elliot

In flyweight action, Ultimate Fighter winner John Dodson takes on UFC newcomer Tim Elliot. 

John Dodson made a name for himself on the 14th season of The Ultimate Fighter as a member of Jason Miller's team. Undersized as a bantamweight, he was able to use his speed to great advantage over his opponents.

His ability to keep his balance on his opponents' takedown attempts is a huge asset, as are his heavy hands. The big concern with the drop down to flyweight is that he will not longer have a speed advantage over his opponents. 

Tim Elliot is relatively unknown to casual fans but does hold a win over former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver. Unfortunately, a win over Pulver no longer has the same impact as it once had. He's a strong wrestler and has developed a submission game to complement his ground control. The big question is how he will react to fighting in the UFC as his entire career has been spent fighting on the Midwestern regional scene. 

This is a decent challenge for Dodson, as Elliot is currently ranked the seventh-best flyweight in the world. I don't think that means much, though, as the UFC knows they have a future star in Dodson and this is likely part of the TUF treatment. 

Prediction: John Dodson by TKO in the second round

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson

The final fight of the Fuel TV prelims pits Michael Johnson against Tony Ferguson. 

Tony Ferguson was the winner of Season 12 of The Ultimate Fighter as a member of Team Lesnar. He is one of the better boxers in the lightweight division and has been known to throw many different combinations with power.

He's fairly well-rounded as well and has the ability to keep the fight on the feet should his opponents attempt to get the fight to the ground. The question in my mind is his athleticism, as he sometimes seems plodding in his footwork. 

Michael Johnson is a member of the Blackzilians and has a very similar style of fighting to teammate Rashad Evans. Both are solid wrestlers with good boxing. Johnson's ability to keep the fight standing has been an asset in the past, but on Saturday night he will need to get the fight to the floor. He sometimes makes mental errors which calls into question his cage IQ. His chin, however, should never be questioned. 

This is a fairly even fight. On the feet the advantage is clearly Ferguson's but the takedowns should go to Johnson. In my mind, this fight will come down to Johnson's ability to stick to his game plan. If he falters even in the slightest, he will lose this fight. 

Prediction: Michael Johnson by unanimous decision

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson

The FOX maincard kicks off with a heavyweight battle between Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson.

Pat Barry has been the definition of inconsistent in his UFC career. A very creative kick boxer, Barry has always had to try and mask his lack of a submission game. He has brutal leg kicks and power in his hands, but as one of the shorter heavyweights, his reach has been a concern. He's made improvements in his ground game since joining Team DeathClutch, but he's essentially an overweight light heavyweight. 

Lavar Johnson was the first Strikeforce heavyweight to make his way over to the UFC after the announcement that the division was being absorbed. He's essentially a brawler with crazy heavy hands and an above-average chin. His lack of wrestling shouldn't be a concern in a fight with Barry. who hasn't displayed an ability to take down opponents with any real consistency.

This fight will be a slugfest until one of these fighters drops. Don't expect to see any slick submissions here—these two guys will stand in front of each other and trade.

Prediction: Pat Barry by TKO after softening Johnson up with leg kicks

Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher

Middleweights Alan Belcher and Rousimar Palhares meet in the second fight of the FOX broadcast. 

Alan Belcher was once viewed as a top prospect in the middleweight division. He was a different kind of fighter with dynamic kickboxing and an above-average ground game. He was sidelined due to an eye injury but has bounced back and reestablished his place in the division.

During his time off, it seems that he added some vicious ground-and-pound to his repertoire. He doesn't really have any holes in his game, but we've never seen him face a strong leg lock specialist.

Rousimar Palhares is a one-trick pony that is incredibly good at that one trick. While people focus on Ronda Rousey's ability to break arms with an arm bar, Palhares is ruining knees with his leg locks. He's very small for the division and doesn't have the reach to stand and trade with Belcher.

The Brazilian does have some pretty nifty takedowns and isn't afraid to get hit in order to roll for a leg. There is a question of his fight IQ as he doesn't seem to know when to let go of a submission. 

At first glance I was going to pick Palhares. I think that he may be the best leg lock guy in MMA, and he's shown he has the strength to cause legitimate damage to ligaments. However, I think that Belcher is coming in prepared and will be able to keep the fight standing long enough to put Palhares away. 

Prediction: Alan Belcher by TKO in the second round

Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

In the co-main event of UFC on FOX 3, welterweights Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks clash. 

Josh Koscheck recently made news when he split with his long-time team at AKA, citing differences with the coaches and trainers. He's set up his own camp in Fresno and has said he believes it's the best camp he's ever had.

He is a strong wrestler with heavy hands and has shown that he's developed into a fairly technical striker. Unfortunately, he still has a tendency to leave his face unprotected and often takes unnecessary damage when standing in the pocket. 

Johny Hendricks is essentially a younger version of Josh Koscheck. As a strong wrestler with heavy hands, he became the first fighter to stop Jon Fitch in the UFC with a very early knockout. A two-time NCAA champ for the powerhouse Oklahoma State, Hendricks actually has the slightly more impressive wrestling pedigree and has been able to pick up a very solid submission grappling game, which makes him a more complete fighter in my eyes. 

This is an extremely close fight and really it comes down to who is able to strike first. I'm not completely sold on Koscheck's claims that this new camp has added "years" to his career but it's very possible that he's getting the proper instruction for the first time in a long time. Hendricks has plenty of time to develop, I just don't think he's ready for the top yet. 

Prediction: Josh Koscheck by unanimous decision

Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller

In the main event of the evening, Nate Diaz and Jim Miller square off in what could be a No. 1 contender's fight. 

Nate Diaz is very similar to his brother Nick in that they are both high-volume boxers with an aggressive style of jiu-jitsu. He also has some solid judo and has been training with Strikeforce champion Ronda Rousey to further develop those skills.

He has a tendency to get frustrated when opponents out-wrestle him on the ground and work control over damage. This usually leads to him leaving openings for those opponents to exploit. 

Jim Miller is the incredibly tough fighter out of AMA Fight Club in New Jersey who has solid wrestling and incredible positional control on the ground. He has developed his boxing as well and is a threat on the feet due to his ability to take a punch. He will be at a reach disadvantage on the feet and will have to work diligently to remain outside of Diaz' guard. 

This is essentially a pick 'em for me. Both fighters have clear paths to victory and have shown an ability to mentally break opponents. I think it comes down to Miller's toughness which will earn him the victory. 

Prediction: Jim Miller by unanimous decision