Pittsburgh Pirates' Losing Record May Be Explained by Strength of Schedule

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 10-12 overall. But they're 0-3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-2 against the St. Louis Cardinals and 2-2 against the Atlanta Braves. That's 3-7 against the three teams that lead their divisions (or in the case of the Braves, were tied for the division lead going into last night's game).

Notably absent from the Bucs' schedule so far, are games against cellar dwellers: The Chicago Cubs (followed closely by the Houston Astros), the San Diego Padres and the Miami Marlins. Maybe THAT's the reason Pittsburgh doesn't have a winning record.

The Pirates opened the season 2-1 against the Philadelphia Phillies, the team that won the most games in 2011. They are  5-4 against the three teams from the NL West—San Francisco, Arizona and Colorado, in the middle. The winning record against such teams suggests better things ahead for the Pirates.

The most encouraging sign for Pittsburgh so far was the 2-2 series against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field, which included the 9-3 victory in the final game that knocked the Braves out of first place in their division. Not only did the Bucs hold their own away from home, but they scored nine runs, finally breaking their previous high of five, in the 22nd game of the season.

This is not to trivialize the Pirates' upcoming games against other members of their own division, the NL Central, which is arguably the weakest in Major League Baseball. Teams like the Milwaukee Brewers and even the Houston Astros, fodder for squads outside the division, have given the Bucs plenty of trouble in the past.

But Milwaukee, for one, seems to be weaker this year than in previous seasons. They have always been a light-hitting team as a whole, and the loss of Prince Fielder, their former best hitter, has moved them closer to the Pirates in this department.

But the real deterioration has come in their pitching. Randy Wolf and Yovani Gallardo have not been their 2011 selves so far.This may finally be the year when Pittsburgh wins more than five games in the season against Milwaukee.

The Houston Astros have been hitting (and winning) unexpectedly well (for them), despite trading Hunter Pence to the Phillies last year. But the Pirates' pitching is among the best in the National League, meaning that they might be able to suppress Astros' hitting.

The Pirates' record against division leaders suggests that they they are not yet strong contenders. But with two Wild Card spots available this season, the Bucs might yet make it to the playoffs through the back door. This may be particularly true if Pittsburgh finds its way to second place in the admittedly weak NL Central.