Serie A: Predicting the Top Six with 3 Games to Go

After this weekend's Serie A action, Juventus is holding on to the top spot by three points over AC Milan. Behind them, no less than five teams are vying for the remaining four automatic European qualifying places.

To make things even more complex, the UEFA Europa League awards an automatic place to the winner of Italy's domestic cup competition.  Juventus and Napoli will face off in the Coppa Italia final in Rome on May 20. Juventus is already qualified for the Champions League group stage and Napoli may yet qualify (albeit into the playoff round), which would completely alter the Europa League qualification picture.

Here's what the top of the table looks like with three fixtures remaining in the 2011-12 Italian season:

Pos.		W	D	L	GD	Points	Qualification Spot
1	Juventus	21	14	0	44	77	Champions League Group Stage
2	AC Milan	22	8	5	40	74	Champions League Group Stage
3	Napoli	14	13	8	19	55	Champions League Playoff
4	Udinese	15	10	10	12	55	Europa League Group Stage
5	Inter	16	7	12	5	55	Europa League Playoff
6	Lazio	16	7	12	5	55	Europa League Third Round

With three matches remaining, there's nine points available to each of the five squads I believe are still in contention. So here's my outlook on how the rest of this exciting season is going to play out and who will be in and who will be out of European competition next year from the Serie A.

The Pretenders

Parma/Catania

Parma is on a really nice late-season roll; they've won five of their last six matches to climb from 16th position only four weeks ago to ninth. However, the eight-point gap between them and the final spot is too much to overcome.

Catania haven't been quite as hot lately, but 2011-12 was a steady campaign under the guise of first-year coach Vincenzo Montella.  The Sicilians are also eight points off the final spot and will fall short of Europe this year.

Roma:

(Last Three Games Prediction: D, D, W)

5 out of 9 points

The Romans are a difficult team to figure out, recently defeating Udinese 3-1 only to get dismantled 4-0 away to Juventus the very next week.  Only Fabio Simplicio's 88th-minute strike on Saturday to salvage a 2-2 draw with Napoli has kept Roma in the conversation. Their remaining fixtures are favorable and they already own wins over last-place Cesena and 12th-place Chievo in the league.  

The home match against Catania will likely prove vital to Roma's faint hopes of getting back into Europe.  But, this team is, and has been, wildly inconsistent this year. Luis Enrique favored a new philosophy at the Olimpico, modeled after Barcelona's tiki-taka, so these growing pains were to be expected.  

Provided the club and its supporters have enough patience to keep the young Spanish manager, I see a bright future for I Lupi. But four points back from the sixth spot is too much to ask, and I see Roma missing out on the UEFA Europa League next year.

The Contenders

Lazio:

(W, L, L)

3 out of 9 points

Roma's bitter city rivals, Lazio, currently sit just above them in the table.  After three loses in their last four matches, the capital club has dropped from third to sixth place.  They've lost their Brazilian playmaker Hernanes to a thigh injury for the rest of the season.  That recent form—a home draw to Lecce followed by an away 2-1 defeat to Novara, both clubs who are destined to be relegated at season's end—doesn't inspire much confidence. 

Lazio does tend to play better against the bigger clubs and with Inter looming on the final day of the season, they should have something on which to rely.  That match will likely represent a playoff to get the final Europa League spot if Napoli fails to finish in the top three.  

Inter:

(W, D, W)

7 out of 9 points

Inter's late-season schedule is the primary hurdle between them and finding a way into Europe again.  All of their remaining fixtures are against sides in the top half of the table.  The Milan side have displayed impressive resiliency after their early-season troubles.  However, the path towards what would be considered a remarkable success this year is blocked by none other than their city rivals, and co-San Siro tenants, AC Milan.

The Milan derby in the penultimate week of the season will be the pivotal point for Inter's season.  If they grab a point or more from the derby (Inter did win the first meeting on Diego Milito's lone goal), then Inter may go to Rome only needing a draw to claim Italy's last European spot. But, I honestly think AC Milan has too much to play for and they've still got an outside chance of claiming the title. Any slip from Juventus and the Rossoneri could capitalize. 

Udinese:

(W, W, L)

6 out of 9 points 

Udinese's road through the final three weeks is considerably easier than Inter's.  They face two relegation-threatened sides in Cesena and Genoa before traveling to Sicily to face Catania.  The northern club should like its chances to pip Napoli to the third spot and the final Champion's League place.  

But, should Udinese and Napoli finish even on points, as they are now, Napoli holds the tiebreaker based on their head-to-head record.  Antonio Di Natale will be looking to finish his 21-goal campaign strongly to further his case for inclusion in Italy's Euro 2012 squad.  However, this club occasionally struggles to score, Di Natale has singularly accounted for close to 45 percent of their offensive output, and that may cost them a spot in the top three in the end.

Napoli:

(W, D, W) 

7 out of 9 points

Napoli hold not only their own fate in their hands, but where they finish will also determine how many Italian teams will play in Europe come next fall.  Should Napoli finish third in Serie A, not only would they qualify into the Champions League for the second straight year, but it would allow for a third Italian team to gain entry into the Europa League next year.  

So, the Partenopei are presented with an intriguing finale to the 2011-12 season. They have an opportunity to claim a domestic trophy for the first time since their Supercoppa of 1990 and make it back to Europe's premier continental tournament after their admirable run to the round of 16 this year.

Two home games at the vaunted San Paolo versus bottom-half teams and a sticky away contest to Bologna are all that's left for Walter Mazzari's men.  It was clear their European campaign took a toll on their limited resources, losing their first three matches to start the month of April.  But, I think they've rebounded, showing pace and regaining the potency in their dynamic attack in taking seven points from their last three matches.  I think Napoli has enough left to grab the final Champions League spot over Udinese, but it's definitely going to be an exciting conclusion to this Serie A season. 

The Heavyweights

AC Milan/Juventus

As for the top two, Juventus carries a three-point cushion and an undefeated record into the last three weeks.  While they do have the Coppa Italia final also on their mind, I believe the Turin giants have sights firmly set on winning their 28th scudetto.  AC Milan, Juve's only pursuers all year long, probably lost their chance at the title when they dropped a home game 2-1 to Fiorentina back on April 7.  Should the two clubs finish in a tie, Juve's head-to-head record, having beaten Milan 2-0 last fall in Turin and benefited from dubious officiating in a 1-1 draw at the San Siro back in February, would see them triumph. The remaining fixtures for both squads also favors Juventus.  

	Juventus	AC Milan
2 May	Lecce	Atalanta
6 May	@Cagliari	@Inter
13 May	Atalanta	Novara

My season end Serie A table would look like this:

Pos.		W	D	L	Points	Qualification Spot
1	Juventus	23	15	0	84	Champions League Group Stage
2	AC Milan	24	9	5	81	Champions League Group Stage
3	Napoli	16	14	8	62	Champions League Playoff
4	Inter	18	8	12	62	Europa League Group Stage
5	Udinese	17	10	11	61	Europa League Playoff
6	Lazio	17	7	14	58	Europa League Third Round