Why the Top Seeds Will Go Down in the Next Round of the NBA Playoffs

Every year in the NBA playoffs there are a number of high-profile upsets.

Just ask the San Antonio Spurs if they remember last year's first-round series with the Memphis Grizzlies that resulted in an early exit from the 2011 NBA playoffs.

With that being said, this year's playoff picture is stacked with exciting and competitive matchups across the board, from the Dallas Mavericks against the Oklahoma City Thunder, to the Chicago Bulls (now without Derrick Rose) facing off against the Philadelphia 76ers.

While the top seeds in the 2012 NBA playoffs might very well make it out of the first round, they are all set up for challenging second-round matchups that could very well end in upsets for those top seeds.

From the lockout-shortened season to the depth of talent across the board, ahead are reasons why the top seeds will go down in the next round of the NBA playoffs.  

NBA Lockout Shortened Regular Season

We've already seen the impact of the 66-game NBA lockout-shortened season on the 2012 playoffs, courtesy of Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert's torn ACLs.

While those injuries could've happened during a non-shortened season, there's no doubt that the rugged schedule this season played a large part in both of those players going down with torn ACLs and missing the rest of the playoffs.

With that being said, we've yet to see the full impact of the shortened regular season on the playoffs, as other players and teams will feel the impact of the regular season. 

As we progress into the second round of the 2012 NBA playoffs teams that go the distance in the first round will certainly be more worn out and beaten down than usual, which is in large part thanks to the shortened season.

We will see the lockout-shortened season take it's full toll on the playoffs in the next round, as the talent gap between the top teams and the lower seeds will be lessened thanks to the consumption of the regular season catching up to them.

Depth of Talent Across the Board Will Wear the Top Seeds out in the First Round

The talent in the 2012 NBA playoffs is very deep across the board, and because of that we will see a number of six or seven game series in the first round that will have an impact on the second round of the playoffs.

The only top seed that might not see their first-round series go past four games is the Miami Heat, as they absolutely obliterated the New York Knicks in the first game of their playoff series.

With Derrick Rose out, the Chicago Bulls will have a more difficult time handling the Philadelphia 76ers, which will result in their first-round series going past the five-game mark.

We've already seen the kind of competition the Mavericks are ready to put up against the OKC Thunder, which will undoubtedly wear them out as they move towards the second round of the playoffs.

While the top seeds' first-round playoff series could certainly end in five games, there's a high likelihood that they will go the distance, and that means more time on the court and more wear and tear on the player's bodies.

All of that added together equals a higher likelihood that the top seeds will all go down in the second round because the wear and tear of their first-round series will certainly catch up with them.

The talent that exists in the bottom four seeds of each conference this season is going to have a larger impact on the playoffs than you might think.  Watch and see, as the second-round of the playoffs will result in a high-number of upsets. 

Top Four Seeds in Each Conference Are All Legitimately Talented

Let's just say for the sake of this argument that all of the top seeds in the playoffs move on to the second round of the 2012 NBA playoffs.  

That would give us a playoff picture like this:

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 4 Boston Celtics
No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Indiana Pacers

Western Conference

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 4 Memphis Grizzlies
No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers

Just looking at those potential second-round matchups might not seem like games that would lead to upsets, but at a second glance the talent in these matchups isn't too far apart across the board.

With Derrick Rose out for the Chicago Bulls, the Boston Celtics certainly have the advantage over the Bulls, as Rajon Rondo would absolutely dominate the Bulls' backcourt.

The Heat against the Pacers is the only matchup here that would, more times than not, not lead to an upset, as the Heat have dominated the Pacers in all but their last game in their four-game regular season series.

I don't think I need to remind the Spurs' fans of last year's debacle against the Grizzlies, when they got knocked out by the eighth-seeded Grizz.

Finally, the OKC Thunder certainly are a dominant team, but the Los Angeles Lakers know how to take them down, as evidenced by their most recent double-overtime "knockout" loss at the hands of the Lake-show just two weeks ago.

There's no doubt that the disparity between the top seeds and the lower seeds is not that high, and because of that there's a high likelihood that the top seeds won't make it out of the next round.