2012 NFL Draft Analysis: Fantasy Impact of First-Round Results

In hindsight, Roger Goodell could have had Vin Diesel announce all the picks for the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft.

After all, they came fast and furious.

And with that fast and furious first round of the draft in the books, it's time to assess how the picks impact the fantasy football landscape.

Who's worth targeting in fantasy drafts this year?

Who should you avoid?

I've ranked all impacted players from the first round results for each of the three offensive positions drafted, from most fantasy value to least fantasy value.

My thoughts—including my secret choice for a fantasy home run—are inside.

Quarterbacks

1. Robert Griffin III, Washington

Compared to Andrew Luck, RG3 has a few more bullets to shoot with.

With newly signed Pierre Garcon, a re-signed Fred Davis and Chris Cooley complimenting what could be a rejuvenated Santana Moss (a la Steve Smith when Cam Newton arrived in Carolina), Griffin has some options on offense. He also has a better running game (at this point in the draft) than Luck has with the Colts.

And if all else fails, Griffin has his legs to help fantasy owners.

2. Alex Smith, San Francisco

Say what you want about whether first-round pick A.J. Jenkins was a reach. But for fantasy purposes, Jenkins is a very solid receiver being added to a offensive group that already includes Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and Michael Crabtree. After seeing Smith play well against the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants in last year's NFC Championship Game, Smith's fantasy stock soars with all these added weapons.

3. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay

Adding a guy like Doug Martin can do wonders for a quarterback who already got an early Christmas with free agent receiver Vincent Jackson and free agent guard Carl Nicks. Now with a balanced offense and more weapons than he ever had, Freeman has a chance to be the 2010 Josh Freeman instead of the 2011 Josh Freeman.

4. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis

Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie are still on board but Dallas Clark is showing his age. What's more, the Indianapolis run game is still non-existent. The Colts will need to draft an impact wide receiver to give Luck a chance for offensive success.

5. Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville

Let's face it: Gabbert stunk last year. But perhaps a big reason for that was his lack of receiving threats. Do you recall who the Jacksonville receivers were last year? Exactly.

Don't forget Gabbert was the tenth overall pick in last year's NFL draft, so it's not like he's got nothing to offer.

Now that Gabbert has both Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson to join Maurice Jones-Drew, he has a big-boy offense and he could be a real sleeper pick in this year's fantasy drafts.

6. Jake Locker/Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee

Adding big-play receiver Kendall Wright to big-play receiver Kenny Britt along with Nate Washington is a big boost to the value of whoever calls the signals for the Titans. Tennessee's quarterback still won't be any better than a fantasy QB2, but he would have more upside than other QB2s—especially if Locker gets the starting gig over Hasselbeck.

7. Kevin Kolb, Arizona

The addition of Michael Floyd helps Kolb quite a bit, considering Kolb performed better in Philadelphia with multiple passing options than he did last year in Arizona with just Larry Fitzgerald. Even so, the jury's still out on Kolb so he is ranked the lowest among the quarterbacks impacted by the draft's first day results.

8. Ryan Tannehill, Miami

Need the Dolphins to draft a couple receivers to be relevant in fantasy as even a QB2.

9. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland

See Tannehill comment above.

Running Backs

1a.Trent Richardson, Cleveland

Richardson is The Man for the Browns. He'll get the ball early and often, and that's all you can ask for as a fantasy owner.

He will likely have an ADP around the fourth round.

1b. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers recovered from missing out on running back Trent Richardson by trading back into the first round to grab Doug Martin. I am likely the only fantasy football analyst who will say this but you can take this to the bank: the former Boise State running back will be every bit as good as Richardson for fantasy purposes, if not better.

With newly signed Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks paving the way, Martin joins receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams in what is suddenly a big-boy offense.

You heard it here first: Martin will produce like a Top 10 RB by the end of the 2012 season. He will be a steal in the projected middle rounds of your fantasy draft.

3. Pittsburgh's running back

Adding stud guard David DeCastro to your line is a big boon to your running back. If only Pittsburgh had one, considering Rashard Mendenhall's major knee surgery could cost him the 2012 season.

4. David Wilson, NY Giants

A solid runner but trapped in a committee situation with Ahmad Bradshaw, I'm personally avoiding the Giants' running backs in this summer's drafts.

Wide Receivers

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona

With the arrival of Michael Floyd, Fitzgerald will once again get a little less defensive attention. Fitzgerald still put up 11.6 FPPG with all defensive eyes on him last year, so he should see a little bump in production now that defenses also have to account for Floyd.

2. Kenny Britt, Tennessee

Britt averaged a whopping 15.0 FPPG before hitting injured reserve. With big-play rookie Kendall Wright on the field with him, Britt—like Fitzgerald—should also benefit.

3. Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville

An impact receiver, Blackmon is sure to also impact fantasy leagues considering he landed in a pretty good situation in Jacksonville. He may not be as good as A.J. Green but at least he'll have another receiver in Laurent Robinson to help take some defensive heat off, unlike Green who has to shoulder the entire defensive focus in the passing game for Cincinnati.

4. Michael Floyd, Arizona

Floyd should be able to contribute immediately. Due to questions surrounding Kevin Kolb's viability, expect Floyd to have just slightly less than Julio Jones-type numbers for fantasy in his rookie year—around 9 FPPG.

5. Kendall Wright, Tennessee

With his big-play ability, he should notch Torrey Smith-type numbers—around 8.4 FPPG.

6. Santana Moss, Washington

I've written about this before, but it bears briefly repeating now that RG3 is officially a Redskin: the similarities between RG3-Moss and Cam Newton-Steve Smith are uncanny. Expect Moss to get a slight bump in productivity in 2012.

7. A.J. Jenkins, San Francisco

I like Jenkins a lot. But there are too many mouths to feed on offense now. It's very possible that Jim Harbaugh gives Alex Smith more pass attempts, especially as Frank Gore isn't getting any younger, but fantasy owners would also need Randy Moss to be a bust and Michael Crabtree to remain irrelevant in order for there to be enough targets left for Jenkins to make a significant fantasy impact.