2012 NFL Draft: The Dust Settles on Day 1 for the AFC South

After a few hours of sleep and reflection, here are my thoughts on the first round of the draft.

Do What We Do

Two teams in the South defied expectations by doing exactly what they always do. The Houston Texans' pick of Whitney Mercilus should have been utterly predictable. No team in football has gone defense in the first two rounds more than the Texans. Of their last 12 first- and second-round picks, 10 have been defenders. When a team is winning, they tend not to change course.

The Tennessee Titans also stayed true to form. They've had a thing for skill players on offense (check out the picture on that one), and that continued with the addition of Kendall Wright. There are ways in which the pick doesn't make a ton of sense if you view it by need, but I get what the Titans were thinking.

Wright is the perfect receiver for a new age of quick-hit seam passing. If Kenny Britt is healthy, Wright will have an obvious role as a slot receiver early in his career. He could become the new Wes Welker. I look at him and wonder if he doesn't have a little Marvin Harrison in him. I do believe this was a classic "best player available pick."

Stop Doing What We Do

I have no idea if Justin Blackmon will be a star. I think at worst the Jacksonville Jaguars got a very good second receiver who will have a nice career. In the end, it doesn't matter. For the relatively cheap price of a fourth-round pick, the Jags joined the rest of the NFL in the 21st Century. After years of Del Rio ball, the Jaguars have decided to try and field a passing offense. I said last week that they had to change their tactics in the draft, and they did.

The future of the Jaguars is very much in the hands of Blaine Gabbert. The front office has done everything they can to make him a success. He has two legitimate receivers in Laurent Robinson and Blackmon. He has a new offensive-minded coach. They have given the tools for success in the NFL, and they will know very quickly what he's up to.

Worst-Case Scenario

My good friend Tom Gower of Total Titans summed Andrew Luck up nicely:

"

The worst-case scenario for the Colts is somebody every bit as good as the Falcons' Matt Ryan is right now, but with better pocket presence. The best-case scenario for the Colts is he's just as good as Peyton Manning, or to use somebody who has Luck's level of athleticism, Aaron Rodgers.

"

He is dead on the money. It echoes the famous Bill Polian quote about Peyton Manning's floor being Bernie Kosar. I'm not convinced that Ryan is an elite quarterback, but he's a good solid 7-15 range quarterback, along the lines of Eli Manning before 2011. In other words, at worst, Luck will be a guy you can win the Super Bowl with.

Grade Inflation

The lowest first-round grade I gave out last night was an A- to the Texans. I don't feel good about that, but I'm not going to apologize for it. All four AFC South teams got better at passing the ball or stopping the pass. No one wasted picks on running backs. They all got what was in my opinion the best player available. I would love to criticize these moves, but honestly, how can you?

If I were to compare each team's first day pick to a TV show, this would be my lineup:

Indianapolis: Justified. The worst episode of Justified is as good as most shows' best episodes. When it's working, it's compelling, dangerous and makes you pump your fists and high-five everyone in the room.

Jacksonville: Star Trek, Deep Space Nine. They re-wrote an old script that was a little tired. It took some time to find its footing, but when it did there were a lot of fireworks, genuinely entertaining moments, and a satisfying conclusion.

Tennessee: Grimm. At first glance it doesn't make any sense and you can't see how or why it works. But the more you look at it, the more you realize it's very, very good and even a little scary.

Houston: Mad Men. It's a high-quality show. I don't love it because I find the characters difficult to root for, but any idiot can see that it's a great program. Not being in love with it is a matter of taste, not criticism.