NFL Draft 2012: After the Top 10 Picks, When Should Teams Draft QB Prospects?

Pop quiz, hotshot. Name the most successful starting NFL QB who was drafted in Rounds 2-4. Fine, I'll wait while you Google it.

If you said Drew Brees, you are correct. But remember, Drew Brees was the first pick of the second round (Pick 32 back in 2001). That's as close to being a first-round pick as you can be without being one.

The remaining starting (or competing to start) NFL QBs drafted in Rounds 2-4:

• Kevin Kolb (ARI) (Round 2 - Pick 36)
• Tavaris Jackson (SEA) (Round 2 - Pick 64)
• Andy Dalton (CIN) (Round 2 - Pick 35)
• Colt McCoy (CLE) (Round 3 - Pick 85)
• Matt Schaub (HOU) (Round 3 - Pick 90)

Neither Kolb nor Jackson is a lock to start this season. Kolb will have to beat out John Skelton (Round 5) and Jackson will have to beat out Matt Flynn (Round 7).

Kolb and Schaub were both drafted by teams that had solid starting options (Donovan McNabb and Mike Vick, respectively) at the time. Both Kolb and Schaub were eventually traded, even though neither McNabb nor Vick would up being the long-term starters for those teams (Eagles and Falcons).

Tavaris Jackson was regarded as quite a "reach" in the second round. That was Vikings coach Brad Childress trying to find his McNabb. As we all know, it didn't work out that way and the Vikings bent over backwards (twice) to sign Brett Favre.

Andy Dalton is very similar to Drew Brees in this case. Dalton was the third pick of the 2nd round. When the Chargers drafted Brees, he was their second selection behind an offensive star, LaDainian Tomlinson. Dalton was the second selection of the Bengals after A.J. Green.

Last year, the Bengals got lucky. Teams reached for the likes of Jake Locker and Christian Ponder in the first round while Dalton slid to the beginning of the second round. Who knows if the Bengals still pick Dalton if all three QBs are still on the board.

Just because you take a QB in the first round doesn't mean that he is a first round talent. The high-impact nature of the QB position in the NFL has placed a premium on the position. This is a QB league. The have-nots don't have a franchise QB and the haves do. It's really that simple. Teams will draft a QB a round (or multiple rounds) above where should be drafted simply because he plays QB.

The problem is, there is no formula for developing a QB who isn't a "blue-chip" prospect. For instance:

• Do you play the QB early to gain experience, or do you let him learn from the bench?
• When the QB plays, do you lean heavily on the run and have him just manage the game, or do you let him air it out and live with the mistakes?
• If you can't acquire both, is it more important to give your young QB offensive weapons or a solid offensive line?
• Do you encourage the QB to be a locker room presence or do you just let nature take its course?
• Should you shield your young QB from media and fan criticism or should you make him step up and take responsibility, even for things that aren't his fault?
• If the QB doesn't exactly fit your offensive system, do you try to force a square peg in a round hole or do you change your system?
• If the young QB doesn't start, do you let him be the backup or do you relegate him to third-string?

Quite frankly, the list could go on and on. It seems to take a perfect storm of factors to develop an elite QB, unless he's just so talented (and driven) that he can overcome more pitfalls than most. You can be sure that Peyton Manning or Cam Newton would develop in almost any situation.

Teams that are looking for a (possible) starting QB after any later than say the first five picks of Round 2 are probably screwed. It seems that you are just as likely to find such and options in Round 5 or 6 than you are in late Round 2 or Round 3.

Most of the teams that are searching for QBs in the second or third rounds usually fit a certain bill. They are usually decent teams that either need to replace an aging starter or a busted first-round pick or free agent bust. These young QBs might end up on better teams than those drafting in the top 10, but the expectations are often much higher and the margin for error much smaller.

With such a premium placed on the QB position, if a QB isn't worth of a first round selection, there are most likely some holes in his game that most scouts/coaches can agree on. That means that it is very important to put a QB in a system that minimizes those weaknesses. For instance, asking Mike Vick to primarily throw slants and curls is not playing to his strengths.

Just drafting a QB because you need a QB is a recipe for disaster. Nine times out of ten you're going to be better off going with a current in-house option so long as he's in good standing with the coaching staff and locker room. Is there a chance that Ryan Mallet (third-round pick in 2011) turns into the successor to Tom Brady? Maybe. He was a first-round talent, but he had high bust potential. But one thing is for sure, Mallet wasn't ready to be a starting NFL QB. He probably still isn't. But in two years? We'll see how Bill Belichick's magical QB development formula really works.

Is your team in the Danger Zone (Archer reference) of drafting a QB in the second or third rounds just because they're not comfortable with their current options? If your team is on this list, the answer is yes.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Kevin Kolb and John Skelton

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Tavaris Jackson and Matt Flynn

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Josh Freeman

BUFFALO BILLS

Ryan Fitzpatrick

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Matt Moore and David Garrard

DENVER BRONCOS

Peyton Manning

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Matt Cassel

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Colt McCoy

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Blaine Gabbert

So what would I do if I'm one of these teams? I would draft two QBs in Rounds 5-7 and hope to get lucky. If not, then my team will probably be lousy, giving me a high draft pick next season and a shot at one of the elite QB talents. Teams will waste three seasons on a QB bust just because they blew a second-round pick on him. If you miss on a QB in Round 6, move on see if you can maybe poach another prospect off of waivers or another team's practice squad.

For the record, four current starting QBs (five if you count Matt Hasselbeck) were drafted in the sixth round or later (undrafted even):

• Tony Romo
• Tom Brady
• Ryan Fitzpatrick
• Matt Cassel

I would take those four over any four you want to pick from the list of QBs drafted in Rounds 2-4. Why not take a shot (or two) late(r) in the draft? There's lower expectations, less pressure and you can take your time in developing him.

Thanks for reading. If you have anything to add or any questions, please use the comments below. 

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