2012 NFL Mock Draft: Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars May Cause Shake-Up

As in most others, there are no trades in my mock—impossible to predict. I will be making picks based on what I think is most likely to happen, and in my write-ups I will try to say what I would do if I were the GM. I’ll offer some possible trades and predictions at the end as well.

To start you off:

Players I’m Down On

Melvin Ingram: He's a mid-teens prospect.  Short with short arms, Ingram is an athletic freak, but a bit of a “tweener."

Fletcher Cox: A mid/late-teens prospect, Cox is not particularly better than other DTs.

Riley Reiff: Here's a late-teens prospect; he's a fairly safe RT, but with limited upside. What you get in year two is what you’ll get in year six.

Michael Brockers: Brockers will go mid/late-first. He is limited as a pass-rusher with an alarmingly poor bench and 40-yard dash. He is being overrated because of team performance and “upside."

Ryan Tannehill: Like everyone, basically, I think he is a marginal first-round QB being pushed up by the media overplaying the need for QBs. Wouldn’t surprise me to see an Aaron Rodgers/Jimmy Clausen fall.

Players I’m high On

Trent Richardson: I was going to use this for some lower guys, but I really want to stress that I think he will be a top-five RB very soon.

Luke Kuechly: Same as above, he's as close to a “can’t miss” as we’ve seen in a while at LB.

David DeCastro: He's the Kuechly version at G.

Cordy Glenn: Look for him to go higher than expected. Glenn may be a bit heavy and not “agile” enough to play LT, but he could be an impact RT or G.

Janoris Jenkins: I hope he goes to a good locker room because on the field, this guy is one of the best CBs we’ve seen in years, and he isn’t too far behind Claiborne. Jenkins plays much bigger than he is, has amazing ball skills, can play bump and run…he's a Pro Bowler in the right locker room.

Coby Fleener: I think he’s more athletic and talented than he’s being given credit for. Don’t be surprised to see him drafted higher than everyone is mocking at 30 or 32.

Devon Still: Perhaps I’m a homer since I saw him play over 10 games in person, but Still's a complete stud in all facets of the game. He can fit in any scheme and is very good both as a pass-rusher and run stuffer.

Brandon Weeden: I seem to be echoing what everyone else is saying about him being just as good as Tanny, and I really think he is better. Don’t care about age.

Random later round guys who I can see being future Pro Bowlers or impact players: Nigel Bradham, George Iloka, Nick Toon, Jonathan Massaquoi, Michael Brewster, Donte Paige-Moss, Cliff Harris.

1. Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

No explanation needed. I promise there will be plenty to come, though.

2. Washington Redskins

QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor

Moving along...

3. Minnesota Vikings

3. CB Morris Claiborne, LSU

They may indeed be dumb enough to not take Matt Kalil. It does make some sense to shore up that secondary in a division with Rodgers, Cutler and Stafford, and their secondary may even be worse than their O-line. I’d take Kalil, but I see the Vikings taking Claiborne and shaking this draft up a bit.

4. Cleveland Browns

RB Trent Richardson, Alabama

They didn’t bring Ryan Tannehill in for a workout, sent their GM and HC to Richardson’s pro day, and only sent Childress to Tannehill’s. Richardson is a can’t miss, and when you’re picking in the top 10, it’s more important to go for safe guys than risky picks. It's much easier to lose your job picking a bust than it is to keep it with making a good pick.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

LT Matt Kalil, USC

I really do hope that they go with Kalil if Claiborne is off the board as I’m predicting. I think the Bucs' board would be Claiborne, Kalil and Richardson in that order (not including the top two).

They have spent the last two drafts shoring up their defensive line, and while you can argue whether or not it has worked, I don’t think they would be looking to spend another first-round pick on a DT like some are predicting. I don’t see any other CB here either; the value simply isn’t there. The new coach will likely go with as safe a pick as possible.

6. St Louis Rams

WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State

I don’t see the Fletcher Cox talk here either. I understand that DT may be a need, but you have to help out your biggest investment in Sam Bradford. I think Blackmon is a great talent and don’t see him being a bust as some suggest.

Fisher will likely have more security than most new head coaches, but again I’ll say that you can’t be making bold picks like that. DT is definitely a big impact position, but I think you’re more likely to see the production immediately from a WR than you are from a DT.

Also, the Rams signed Kendall Langford and Trevor Laws, who should join an improving defensive line (with Chris Long, who had 13 sacks last year, and 2011 first-round pick Robert Quinn) and make it a formidable unit. Blackmon is simply the better prospect.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars

WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

I'm throwing a wrench in the draft here a bit. Melvin Ingram and Fletcher Cox are the two “likely” picks, but I don’t think we’ll see them here.

I’d like to point out that the next few picks are awful spots to be in, as the top six in the draft in my opinion are all considerably better than the following group.

I understand the injury to Terrance Knighton, but I don’t think you take a DT seventh overall just because a guy is going to miss a year (though it may be worse, I don’t exactly know quite yet).

In real life if the top six all go as predicted, I’d really expect the Jaguars to move down and then select from Floyd, a defensive end, or maybe Cox when the value is greater. But if I had to project them staying, I think Floyd is the pick because you really have to help Blaine Gabbert out as much as you can.

Laurent Robinson is a solid receiver but much better served as a number two, and the same for Mike Thomas a number three. Floyd, in my opinion, can be a bonafide number one that you want your QB to grow with.

8. Miami Dolphins

DE/OLB Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

I'm not a huge Ingram fan, but I like the fit here. Ryan Tannehill is an option here if nobody moves up to No. 7 to take him, but even with him on the board, I think the Dolphins aren’t quite as interested as they are made out to be just because of the Sherman association.

You can pair Ingram with Cameron Wake either in the 3-4 or the 4-3 since they are projected to run some sort of hybrid system. Ingram would benefit greatly from this, and the Dolphins could properly assess if he is a better fit with a hand in the ground or not.

9. Carolina Panthers

LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College

This is an incredibly hard pick to make. It seems as though Fletcher Cox is the popular pick, and there's even some Stephon Gilmore talk, but I think Ron Rivera would love to get his hands on a guy like Kuechly.

Personally, I’d like Mike Floyd here too, but he’s off the board here.

The Panthers defense is deplorable and could use upgrades on the line and in the secondary. But there are several DTs and CBs to be found at the top of the second round (though I don’t like to make picks based on what “could be”), and the Panthers have had some awfully injury-prone LBs lately.

Adding Kuechly would shore that up a bit and give Carolina some flexibility to perhaps switch to a 3-4 if Rivera wants.

10. Buffalo Bills

CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina

I’m not sold on this pick, but I am fairly sure that it won’t be Riley Reiff, who we’ve seen almost everyone pencil in here. Gilmore is clearly moving up the big boards, and No. 10 isn’t out of the question.

The Bills added Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, but their secondary is still awful, and they would welcome a CB like Gilmore with open arms to try and shut down Tom Brady and the Pats in the division.

11. Kansas City Chiefs

QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

With no trades, I see Tanny falling to the Chiefs. Come the actual draft, I could see them moving up for him. The Chiefs have a good amount of talent on both sides of the ball, particularly with the addition of Peyton Hillis and Eric Winston, and they may just be a QB away from being perennial AFC West contenders.

If Tanny is gone, then I would expect them to take David DeCastro to try to protect their investment in Matt Cassel and get another mauler for Charles/Hillis.

12. Seattle Seahawks

DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State

I’ve been waiting for a spot for Cox, and though I’m not sold this is the best fit, it’s how it turned out. The Seahawks have lost Tony Hargrove and signed Jason Jones, but there is still a need for pass rushing on the line. Quinton Coples could be a bit here, but Cox is the better value here and less of a potential risk as far as effort is concerned.

I think we could see Jones sliding over to DE in this situation to make room for Cox on the line with Brandon Mebane, who is a very good run stuffer and is worth having on the field even if he does not generate sacks. This would make him a great complement to Cox.

13. Arizona Cardinals

OT Riley Reiff, Iowa

I don’t see Reiff as a particularly game-changing offensive lineman, and this is lower than most people have him going. But I think he is a good fit for the Cardinals, who have a completely deplorable offensive line.

Whether they decide to go forward with John Skelton, Kevin Kolb or someone else at quarterback, they have to give him some protection. With Floyd off the board, Reiff is the highest-ranked prospect and good fit for the Cards.

14. Dallas Cowboys

S Mark Barron, Alabama

You’ve got to have a good secondary in the NFC, especially when you’re trying to beat Eli Manning to win the division every year. Throw in Michael Vick (who I don’t like, but still need to mention) and RG3, and you’ve got a pretty good passing division going forward.

The Cowboys haven’t had a good safety in quite some time, and think it’s about time for them to look for one. However, if Gilmore is available, I would slot him here above Barron.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

DT/DE Quinton Coples, UNC

We’ve seen DE rotations be quite successful, and the Eagles don’t have to look much further than their division rivals and defending champion New York Giants to see that.

Coples is an incredible talent, and with guys like Trent Cole and Jason Babin on the defensive line, I think this would be a good locker room for him to be in and succeed. He can switch inside to DT, as well and allow the Eagles to have all three on the field at the same time.

Don’t be surprised to see the Eagles move up for Cox or Gilmore, however.

16. New York Jets

OLB/DE Courtney Upshaw, Alabama

I don’t quite get the recent love for prospects such as Chandler Jones and Shea McClellin. I am not denying that pass-rushers do go early and often, but I don’t see either of them overtaking studs such as Courtney Upshaw.

I think Rex and the Jets are more likely to go after the big-time, big-stage performer in Upshaw and groom him to be the explosive pass-rusher that the Jets have desired for the past few seasons.

17. Cincinnati Bengals

CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama

I'm going a bit against the grain here, as most would project Dre Kirkpatrick, but I think Jenkins is the superior prospect and that it’s perfectly reasonable for him to go ahead of Kirkpatrick (who I still like, by the way). Jenkins is more of a playmaker at CB, and I could see that being a reason for the Bengals to prefer him over Kirkpatrick.

18. San Diego Chargers

G David DeCastro, Stanford

I really wanted to slot him earlier and would be surprised if he did make it this far on draft day, but this is the way my draft has played out. DeCastro is a stud, flat out, plain and simple.

Marcus McNeill’s injury really crippled the Chargers, and stud guard Kris Dielman was forced to retire as well. DeCastro would help shore up their offensive line, which is a bit shaky now.

I understand the need for other positions such as CB, OLB and even WR, but the value here in my opinion is too much to pass up. Though, the Chargers have always been the kind of team to fall in love with later prospects (see Larry English) and take them.

19. Chicago Bears

T/G Cordy Glenn, Georgia

Many are projecting Chicago to take a DT here, and Michael Brockers would be a good fit for the Bears. But I think the need for an offensive lineman far surpasses the need for a run-stuffing DT like Brockers.

The Bears are committing to revamping their offense with the addition of Brandon Marshall, and I expect them to keep it going, perhaps adding more WRs. But they HAVE to protect Jay Cutler.

20. Tennessee Titans

DT Dontari Poe, Memphis

In a division with MJD and Arian Foster, you better have your run defense straightened out.

I think what we saw with Poe is that he was overrated so much because of the combine to the point where he is now a bit underrated, similar almost to Bruce Campbell. While he is a much better prospect than Campbell and should still be a first- or at worst early/mid-second round pick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Poe slide to this juncture of the draft despite the pundits mocking him at No. 9.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

WR Kendall Wright, Baylor

Yes, they took A.J. Green last year, but don’t be surprised if the Bengals double up on WRs to try and help out Andy Dalton as much as possible.

Some project them taking offensive linemen to help him out, but they have addressed the position (somewhat) by signing a couple of solid guards in Travelle Wharton and Jacob Bell. Wright provides both good value and a good positional fit for the Bengals.

22. Cleveland Browns

WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech

The Browns have to help Colt McCoy (or Tannehill, bleh) out as much as possible in this draft. After this season, there will be no doubt about whether or not they have their QB—but let’s give him a chance to succeed with a new RB and deep threat.

23. Detroit Lions

CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama

I’ll admit that I did not want to mock him here because of the weed reports, but the charges against him were dropped, so it is not as much of an issue.

You absolutely have to have a good pass defense to win the NFC North going forward, and the Lions have not been good in this area in the past. They have clearly upgraded their pass rush, but it’s time to address the secondary, and Kirkpatrick is a great fit and great value.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers

LB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama

This seems to be going cookie-cutter here, but this was a match made in heaven. A born leader, Hightower fits right in to an incredibly physical defense with a spot open next to Lawrence Timmons. Hightower seems to be almost as easy a pick as Cameron Heyward was last year, so that means I’ll probably be wrong.

25. Denver Broncos

DT Michael Brockers, LSU

I wanted to slot him earlier, but I just couldn’t find a fit that I was comfortable with. The Broncos definitely should be looking at DT, and Brockers really fits the bill here perfectly. I’m not a huge Brockers fan, but at this point the value and potential are too great to pass up.

26. Houston Texans

WR Rueben Randle, LSU

I definitely think the Texans are in play for a WR here. Every year that seems to be the case, and everyone is mocking that the Texans need a complement to Andre Johnson.

But they don’t just need a complement, they need a competent replacement for when Johnson inevitably misses time, as he always seems to do (just ask my fantasy team…). Randle could be that impact playmaker.

27. New England Patriots

OLB/DE Chandler Jones

OK, I’ll bite and put him in the first. It’s basically useless mocking for the Pats, as they’ll likely trade one or both of their firsts, so this is more of a positional projection as opposed to specific player projection. I think the Pats have to address their pass rush and secondary in this draft, and Jones is the highest ranked pass-rusher I have available.

28. Green Bay Packers

OLB/DE Whitney Mercilus

Mercilus is the best pass rusher available, and the Packers could definitely use one opposite of Clay Matthews. Safety may be a need, but I feel more confident in Mercilus as a first-round prospect than I do in Harrison Smith. The Packers seem to be building a dynasty, but I think this draft is very crucial for them to get right in order to keep the team on track.

29. Baltimore Ravens

WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina

He does seem to be dropping, but I think the questions of attitude and effort would be eliminated in a locker room with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, etc. Whether you like what Joe Flacco has said or not, you’ve got to help him out and give him a red-zone target, which, at the very least, Jeffery has the potential and ability to be.

30. San Francisco 49ers

T/G Jonathan Martin, Stanford

I really like Martin and don’t quite see why he has fallen so much, but that’s the draft process for you. I could easily see Coby Fleener here, but the 49ers have already addressed their weaponry in signing Mario Manningham and Randy Moss. It’ll be difficult to get them involved with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore all demanding a steady diet of targets.

The 49ers can use an upgrade at guard, and Martin is certainly that and even a possible tackle. And he is a Stanford guy for Harbaugh, too.

31. New England Patriots

DT/DE Devon Still, Penn State

I don’t think the Pats stay here, but if they do, I like the fit of Still. He can play in both their 3-4 and 4-3 and contribute on every down. They should be looking to shore up the secondary, but Still is a better value here than any DB available.

32. New York Giants

TE Coby Fleener, Stanford

The Giants are always a BPA team, so this pick will be whoever is ranked highest on their board. But this year, I think they combine BPA with a need at TE. With Mario Manningham gone and Jake Ballard out for the year, the Giants have targets to replace, and Fleener provides a good value here for the Giants.

Thanks!

Thanks for reading! I appreciate ALL comments and CRITICISMS and look forward to some heated discussions.

Trades to Look For

Jaguars to move down (Chiefs/Jets)

Panthers to move down (Jets/Eagles)

Patriots to move either way (goes without saying)

It's the draft, there will always be surprises.