2012 NFL Mock Draft: Teams That Can Afford to Gamble on Project Prospects

For most teams in the NFL, they can’t afford to whiff on their first-round pick.

There is too much at stake, too many holes to fill and not enough young talent.

But for a select few, the heavy-lifting has already been done. Whether the team stocked up in free agency or is returning the majority of a strong team, some organizations are looking at the draft as the cherry on top.

They are the teams that can allow a talented, but raw player a chance to develop.

If only every team could be so lucky.

(Teams That Can Afford to Gamble in italics)

1. Indianapolis Colts, Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Has Luck bought a house in the suburban Indianapolis region yet?

What’s he waiting for?

2. Washington Redskins (via St. Louis Rams), Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

After watching the John Gruden QB Camp RGIII edition, I’m convinced more than ever he is the smoothest player to come along in a while.

My favorite Gruden/RGIII exchange:

Gruden: Why are you wearing a sleeve on your left (non-throwing) arm?

RGIII: Because it’s a party on the left and business on the right.

3. Minnesota Vikings, Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Vikings GM Rick Spielman told PFW that his team is considering moving out of the No. 3 spot, but I think that is a smoke screen. Expect them to take Kalil here.

4. Cleveland Browns, Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

I was a Blackmon-to-the-Browns guy for the longest time until I realized…Greg Little is virtually the same player with a tad less athleticism.

While adding receiving depth is certainly a priority, landing a can’t-miss running back with all the talent in the world should be the goal for Cleveland with this pick.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

This is about as close to a lock as there is in the top 10 aside from Luck and RGIII. The Bucs secondary was a joke last season, and Claiborne is the best graded corner by virtually every scout.

6. St. Louis Rams (Washington Redskins), Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

The Rams and Blackmon were connected by reporters' speculation, but a king’s ransom from the Redskins later and they still have a great shot of still landing their guy.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars, Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

There is a lot to like about Cox, who is rapidly flying up the draft board. His relentless motor, consistent improvement throughout college and NFL-ready frame make him worth a top-10 pick.

With Jags DT Terrance Knighton likely to miss the entire season with an eye injury, Cox can step right in and the defense won’t miss a beat.

8. Miami Dolphins, Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Dolphins decide to put their 2012 season in the hands of whatever QB’s are available in the second round, and go the conservative route with Reiff in Round 1.

9. Carolina Panthers, Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

The MVP of the combine certainly has major bust potential, but the Panthers desperately need to shore up the teeth of their defense to ensure a repeat of 2011 doesn’t occur.

Physically, Poe is worth a top-10 pick.

10. Buffalo Bills, Nick Perry, DE, Stanford

Scouts love Perry’s pass-rush ability, and he has the stats to back it up. In only three years, Perry registered 21.5 sacks and 29.5 tackles for losses.

That’s the kind of production the Bills need for a defense with a lot to improve upon.

11. Kansas City Chiefs, David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

The Chiefs don’t really have a huge need right now, they just need upgrades. With the return of Jamaal Charles, Matt Cassel and Eric Berry, Kansas City doesn’t have to nail this pick to ensure they avoid another disappointing season.

Drafting at a position like guard will not bring an immediate impact, but the run-heavy team will be much better off in the long-run with DeCastro as opposed to taking a risk on a boom/bust pick at defensive end.

12. Seattle Seahawks, Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Tannehill should not be drafted this high. He really shouldn’t.

But like clockwork every year, there is a QB that is rising up the draft board in the last month leading up to the big day. The converted receiver has a lot to work ahead of him, but Pete Caroll doesn’t care.

He’s on the record praising Tannehill, and if the Dolphins don’t nab him at No. 8, the Seahawks will four picks later.

13. Arizona Cardinals, Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

The Cardinals need to shore up a defensive front that rarely got consistent pressure from its ends.

Coples is a big-time risk due to his lack of consistent effort, but has all of the tools to be a great pro physically.

14. Dallas Cowboys, Stephon Gilmore, CB- South Carolina

Nobody benefits from the off-field concerns of Janoris Jenkins (now likely a second-round pick) more than Gilmore.

15. Philadelphia Eagles, Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina

The Eagles are already championship contenders as constructed and don’t need to nail this pick. Ingram is a versatile player that can line up in a variety of positions for the Eagles.

That’s exactly what a team that had a disappointing front seven needs. The coaching staff can afford to experiment with Ingram.

16. New York Jets, Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

I’m beginning to wonder if Floyd will fall this far.

There is no question he possess everything you look for in a go-to receiver. Being the most accomplished receiver in Notre Dame history tells me he has star written all over him.

17. Cincinnati Bengals, Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

The best player on a historically good defense is certainly worthy of a mid-first-round selection. With the Keith Rivers trade, there is certainly a need at the position for the Bengals to ensure they have the proper depth to compete in the rugged AFC North.

18. San Diego Chargers, Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

With Vincent Jackson on the complete opposite side of the country in Tampa Bay, the Chargers need to look for his replacement early on.

Wright is a bust in my opinion, but speed kills and it’s enough to convince the ‘Bolts to take a stab at him.

19. Chicago Bears, Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Bears were on track for another playoff appearance before Jay Cutler got hurt.

This team has depth at virtually every position and can afford to groom Charles Tillman’s replacement over the next two seasons.

20. Tennessee Titans, Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

At 6’6’’, 345 pounds, Glenn is a physical force that can become an elite player under the right coaching staff.

This pick would certainly make Chris Johnson happy.

21. Cincinnati Bengals, Mark Barron, SS, Alabama

SEC bred, with strong instincts and a knack for finding the ball, Barron is the best safety in the draft.

The Bengals need some serious help in the secondary, and landing Barron would be huge in their attempt to make the playoffs for the second year in a row for the first time in over 20 years.

22. Cleveland Browns, Luke Kuechly, OLB, Boston College

The Butkus Award winner has more passion and energy than possibly anybody else in the draft—which was the main reason he was the nation’s leading tackler. I think he’s going to be in for a rude awakening when Kuechly realizes he is one of the least athletic players on the field.

His lack of speed combined with a tendency to over-run plays makes me wary of Kuechly.

23. Detroit Lions, Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

The Lions were among the five worst teams in the NFL last season when it came to rushing offense as it became clear Jahvid Best is not a featured back.

Landing a similar, but more compact player like Miller would create the perfect one-two punch.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers, Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Still would be a popular pick with the hometown fans, but I wonder if he can physically dominate the NFL like he did in college.

I don’t see enough pure skill in Still to warrant a long and prosperous NFL career.

25. Denver Broncos, Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

The Broncos have a $95 million investment to protect, and ensuring he stays healthy is the No. 1 priority for the 2012 Broncos draft.

26. Houston Texans, Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Jeffery has top-10 talents, but needs a slice of humble pie to ensure he stays grounded.

I have a feeling the veteran-laden Texans squad will have no problem doing that. A team with few holes can afford to endure the bumps and bruises of Jeffery early on as he learns the NFL game.

The Texans are one of the most complete teams in the NFL and don’t need much out of their top pick.

27. New England Patriots, Jamell Fleming, CB, Oklahoma

Shoring up the horrid pass defense has to be priority No. 1 for the Pats. The only clear hole currently on the roster.

28. Green Bay Packers, Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Brockers has loads of potential, but will likely fail to be a huge contributor right off the bat. The Packers obviously could use him right away, but it’s not going to make or break their season.

With the second easiest schedule in the league, this team is going to make the playoffs with or without Brockers playing well.

29. Baltimore Ravens, Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

The Ravens have a strong need at the position, and Konz is by far the best prospect at center in the draft.

30. San Francisco 49ers, Rueben Randle, WR, LSU

I highly doubt Randy Moss is going to provide a whole lot for an offense that severely lacks strong wide receivers.

The team needs insurance and Randle, or potentially Stephen Hill, is the answer.

31. New England Patriots, Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State

McClellin is intelligent, a very important trait when playing for Bill Belichick, but it’s not like they have to nail this pick.

With two picks in the top 31, the Pats don’t necessarily need to get a ton of production from McClellin to have a successful season.

32. New York Giants, Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

A versatile athlete that excelled amongst top competition, Adams can bring a lot to the Big Blue, who have a large amount of holes to fill in the draft. 

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