Power Ranking the Chances of Each UFC Division's Number 1 Contender

For all you UFC lovers that felt jilted by the promotion's lengthy absence, dry your eyes.

The object of your affections has returned and is on the doorstep with an armful of gifts to melt the heart and make you forget all about those six weeks of mourning and comfort food.

No, you won't be getting flowers. And no, it's not an apology written in verse. What it is, is some good old-fashioned fights. 

The UFC did always know how to take care of you, didn't it?

While many of us were won back by the action of UFC on FUEL 2, that was just to whet the appetite. The promotion is truly set to deliver the goods with eight cards over the course of the next two-and-a-half months.

Of those eight events, three will be of the pay-per-view variety. All three PPV cards will feature a title fight. First up: Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans. Once you catch your breath, it's Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem (maybe). Then, get ready for Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen II.

With three title fights scheduled in such close proximity, there is immense potential for change to the landscape of the UFC.

Three champions could be dethroned in a matter of weeks, while three new reigns could begin anew. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

The trio of upcoming five-round battles will start a run of championship bouts that will see every title-holder defend his gold before the end of the 2012 calendar year. While that time is not too far off for most, welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre will not be able to do his part until late autumn.

Here, we will take a look at which current No. 1 contenders have the most significant chance of upsetting MMA's current balance of power by disposing their divisional kingpin. 

The only fighters considered for this list are those on the precipice of battle with a current title holder.

Because there is no flyweight champion, the division has no number one contender and is absent from this list.

7: Alistair Overeem (Heavyweight)

Overeem ranks last on this list because he may lose his place on the ladder without even losing a fight.

While the PED scandal rages on, Overeem's number one contendership has been jeopardized alongside his credibility as a mixed martial artist.

In addition to factors outside the Octagon, Overeem may find himself in over his head against Junior dos Santos, should the show go on. He certainly has the striking ability to hang with the Brazilian, but for how long?

Sure, "The Reem" hasn't been defeated since 2007, but taking Dos Santos out in a single round is a tall order. 

"Why," you ask, must he finish the fight in one round? Well, he doesn't definitively need to do so, but once the first bell tolls, it signifies a severely reduced chance of victory for Alistair.

In bouts that last more than a single round, Overeem holds a pedestrian 6-5 record over the course of his career. 

For whatever reason, "The Demolition Man" has a problem going more than five minutes. Whether that problem relates to cardio or focus is uncertain, but the trend cannot be ignored.

We've seen Dos Santos throw bombs for 15 minutes at a time before, and if Overeem had to compete with the power puncher at reduced effectiveness, chances are not good that he would prevail.

There are two steps any contender must take to obtain a title. First, he must fight. Second, he must win.

Most number one contenders get a free pass on step one. That Overeem doesn't suggests he is fighting an uphill battle, and he comes in as the UFC's least threatening title contender at this time.

6: Dustin Poirier/Chan Sung Jung (Featherweight)

This is the only time I'll be a little wishy-washy with identifying the number one contender. I swear.

Dustin Poirier and Chan Sung Jung are scheduled to throw down on May 15 in what has the distinct smell of a number one contender match.

Hatsu Hioki could conceivably swoop in to supplant these fellows as the second-to-top-dog featherweight, but for now it seems like the winner of this match will get Jose Aldo in Calgary, this July.

That there are two of them necessitates that this package of contenders must rank low on the list, simply because each guy has to pass a tough test before even getting a chance at Aldo.

The other reason this tandem comes in at sixth is because the chance either man can win is rather small.

Both Poirier and Sung Jung are very well-rounded fighters, but either one would enter a fight with "Scarface" as a massive underdog. And rightfully so.

Each guy likes to strike, but Aldo holds and advantage over both on the feet. Both guys have good ground games, but have not displayed anything to suggest that they could outclass Aldo on the mat. Both guys have shown the ability to score takedowns, but neither one compares to power wrestler, Chad Mendes, who Aldo foiled in all his attempts to drag the fight to the ground, and subsequently knocked him out.

A tough number one contender fight compounded by an even tougher championship fight is a potent recipe for failure.

Hence the list placement of the two contending featherweights.

5: Urijah Faber (Bantamweight)

There are many people out there ready to throw their lot in with Faber when he fights Dominick Cruz in a rubber match. 

They say the last fight between the two was close. They say that Faber is still only adjusting to fighting at bantamweight. They say that he can finish Cruz, but Cruz can't finish him.

I'm not buying it.

The record between Cruz and Faber may stand at a tie for now, but the Cruz that Faber beat in 2007 is not the Cruz that he will fight to conclude The Ultimate Fighter Live reality series.

The Cruz that Faber will be fighting is the one that beat him in 2011. And Faber will enter the future contest as the same fighter that lost to Cruz last year. 

While it is not inconceivable that Faber can win the decisive match of the trilogy, he needs a whole lot to go right. He would need to have the fight of his life, he would need to institute the perfect game plan and he would need Cruz to have something in his eye for at least one round.

The second fight was not all that close and neither will the third one be.

Damn Cruz for decisioning his opponents all you like, but he still wins a whole lot and is one of the best fighters on the planet.

4: Carlos Condit (Welterweight)

Condit has a lot going for him as he preps for a showdown with the welterweight division's true champion. Namely, he will fight a surgically repaired, rusty Georges St-Pierre.

Then again, Condit's decision to wait out the Canadian's recovery means he'll be coming off a lengthy layoff of his own for the fight. 

While Condit has looked terrific in recent wins over Dan Hardy, Dong Hyun Kim and Nick Diaz, he is not on the level of St-Pierre.

Carlos is a well-rounded fighter, but if a focus group was asked to criticize his abilities, nine out of 10 people would agree that wrestling is the area he could most improve upon.

Remember how GSP took down Josh Koscheck, B.J. Penn and Jon Fitch more or less at will? Well, it's unlikely that Condit will fare any better against the might of St-Pierre than those more accomplished takedown-stuffers.

Furthermore, GSP's striking is at no disadvantage to Condit's. The UFC tried to promote St-Pierre's fight with Dan Hardy as a quintessential enactment of the oft-mentioned striker-versus-grappler dichotomy, but that was all for show.

GSP's striking is superior to Hardy's, and it is at least equal to Condit's.

Citing Georges' display of mediocre striking against Jake Shields last year could challenge this claim, but even those that call for St-Pierre's head each time he fails to finish an opponent would have to admit that that performance was atypical for the champion.

Ultimately, Condit is not in the same class as St-Pierre. He can win this fight if Georges' knee injury has sapped him of his explosiveness, but the potential for that moves Condit to fourth, and no better.

If GSP is at full strength for the fight, I reserve the right to retroactively re-situate Condit's chances closer to Overeem's.

3: Rashad Evans (Light Heavyweight)

Jon Jones has looked unbeatable thus far during his MMA career, save for the old disqualification method. However, we know that no one fighter is safe from a letdown performance and that no fighter is invincible.

While Evans will combat Jones as a decided underdog in Saturday's grudge match, he will enter with a confidence that seems more genuine than forced.

Why that is is difficult to say. He may have held Jones down in practice once, but surely it has not escaped Rashad that Jones has looked a little better than average during his reign of dominance over the light heavyweight division.

But whatever the source of Evans' confidence, it is good that he has it. The look in his eyes over the past week has been scary. 

Though he will pose the greatest threat Jones has had to deal with as of yet, it is far easier to envision Jones remaining champ than it is to imagine Rashad walking away the victor.

Evans recapturing his UFC strap ranks in that "possible, but not probable" range of likelihood.

Luckily, our curiosity on the matter shall be sated sooner rather than later. 

2: Frankie Edgar (Lightweight)

Edgar's first fight against incumbent champion Ben Henderson was close enough to earn him an immediate rematch, which implies that he is not all that far from besting his rival.

I am of the camp that believes the fight was not as close as Edgar seems to think, but "Bendo" did throw up a couple red flags during that contest, which suggests to me that he is not safe in an Edgar rematch.

I speak of the leg and body kicks Henderson threw in great quantity. You remember? The variety that Edgar caught 500 times?

Fighting on one leg can pose serious danger to any fighter. It is difficult to keep standing, difficult to parry incoming strikes and difficult to mount any type of offense when an opponent has hold of one.

Henderson was able to use his superior length to thwart Edgar's attempts to capitalize on this oft-seen position in the first bout, but you can bet your bottom dollar that "The Answer" will have worked out the kinks in training camp.

In a fight that is likely to go to the score cards, the ability to make Henderson pay every time he throws a kick could be huge for Edgar.

There was not all that much separation between Henderson and Edgar in their first showdown and it is entirely feasible to think the rematch could swing the other way.

Edgar ranks as the silver medalist of title contenders for now.

1: Chael Sonnen (Middleweight)

The first time Sonnen and Silva squared off was one of the most memorable fights of the past several years. 

Sonnen dominated the champion for the better part of five rounds, before succumbing to his oldest nemesis: the triangle choke.

Though he lost the fight in everyone's opinion but his own, Sonnen showed that he has the ability to defeat Silva.

Now, he once again has the opportunity.

A wild card for the second match is Sonnen's strength. He was able to rag-doll the Brazilian in the clinch and control him on the mat with little trouble during the the first encounter, but Sonnen's post-fight drug test provided some clues as to how he was able to do these things.

After the bout, Sonnen tested positive for PEDs, maintaining a higher testosterone level than Alistair Overeem showed during his now-infamous test.

So what effect might normalized testosterone levels have on the rematch? It's hard to say. Sonnen is a far superior wrestler to Silva and should once again be able to control the pace of the match, but ignoring the issue entirely is a bit dubious.

Even if you tend to believe the benefits of Sonnen's elevated testosterone levels were something of a redundancy, it did give him an advantage. And any advantage can turn the tide of a fight.

That said, Sonnen has the one singular tool that is best suited for dethroning Silva: seriously impressive wrestling.

This skill, combined with tremendous toughness and strong cardio makes Sonnen the UFC's number one threat to shaking up the promotion's championship scene.