NBA Draft 2012: Predicting Which Lottery Picks Won't Live Up to the Hype

The NBA lottery is about nothing, if not hype.

Every general manager would like to believe he has the inside track on the next big thing and every fan hopes that GM has borderline psychic abilities.

Unfortunately, there are few guarantees in this business, and wishful thinking can distort sound decision-making.

That could be especially true for the following highly-touted prospects.

Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)

Attributing anything short of future stardom seems to be heresy according to conventional wisdom.

For the record, there's no question Davis will be great.

However, when you're as hyped as this guy is, living up to expectations is virtually impossible. There's also the chance that his career could look more like Marcus Camby's than anyone approximating a superstar.

When Davis adds strength, it's hard to imagine he won't also lose a little bit of quickness. At the very least, age may do so for him.

These aren't reasons that Davis should go anything short of first overall in this summer's draft—they're just reasons to keep expectations within reason.

Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)

Barnes is young enough and talented enough that it's far too soon to put a ceiling on his potential.

That said, there may be more hype surrounding how hyped this guy's been, than there is hype surrounding him.

Chances are that he will turn out better than the similarly hyped Marvin Williams—but that doesn't mean he'll be the next Paul Pierce.

Barnes is limited by an offensive skill set still in need of diversification, and his tendency to fade in games could be a dangerous sign of things to come.

Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)

Jones' potential remains incredibly untapped. He played for a Baylor team deep with scoring options and undecided about how best to use Jones.

As is often the case for such versatile players, figuring out how they best fit in with a system can be a drawn-out enterprise—one that could affect his development at the pro-level as well.

A useful comparison may be Anthony Randolph's still young career. Length and athleticism only count for so much sometimes.

Jones could be a legitimate superstar in time, but there's also a decent chance that never happens.

Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)

Sullinger appeared dominant sometimes at the college level. He was well-equipped to bully his way to the rim and secure more than his fair share of boards.

Still, he's the kind of undersized bulldog who doesn't always translate into NBA stardom. If a guy like Glen Davis is any indication, muscle isn't always enough to overcome the long arms patrolling NBA paint.

Damian Lillard (Weber State)

Lillard probably wouldn't get as much attention in a draft with better point guard prospects.

In a world where teams still need point guards, though, Lillard stands a good chance of earning himself a lottery selection.

You can't question his quickness and scoring ability, but you can have some doubts about his ability to grow as a floor general in the pros.

He doesn't quite have the size scorers like Russell Westbrook and Monta Ellis use to their advantages, and that might mean he'll need to polish his passing skills if he wants to become anything more than another D.J. Augustin.