Euro 2012: Why Italy Will Be Hard to Beat in Poland and Ukraine

The reputation of Italian soccer has taken a big hit in recent years.  Italian clubs have not had the same success in UEFA competition ever since the calciopoli scandal rocked Serie A in 2006 and caused some of the league's top players—particularly those playing for Juventus—to scatter to Spain and England.  

Combined with the Azzurri's lackluster run to the quarterfinals of Euro 2008 as well as their disastrous group stage exit from the World Cup two years ago, the prevailing view of Italy around the world is one of a fading power, one that won't make much noise in the upcoming European Championships.

Any team actually facing the Italians that buy into this notion is setting themselves up for a reality check.  The Italians may not have impressed in recent years, but this team has reloaded and will look to make a deep run in Poland and Ukraine.  Here's why they will:

Better Decision Making from the Manager

I've said it before, so I won't belabor this point, but the debacle in South Africa was caused by the terrible squad selection of manager Marcello Lippi.  Lippi, who was considered legendary thanks to his exploits at Juventus and as the boss of the 2006 World Cup champions, had his legacy tarnished in 2010 when he relied far to heavily on holdovers from the ''06 team, particularly an aging Fabio Cannavaro.  

Lippi also picked a squad that for the most part lacked creativity in the midfield and forward positions—his omission of Giuseppe Rossi was particularly baffling.

While Lippi's successor, Cesare Prandelli, will not be bringing Rossi to Poland after the striker re-injured his right ACL during training with club Villareal, he has shown a determination not to fall into the same trap that Lippi did.  

Over the past 12 months only two men over the age of 30—Andrea Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon—have started for Prandelli's Azzurri.  His squads have included playmaking midfielders like Pirlo, Claudio Marchisio and Thiago Motta and creative forwards like Rossi and Sebastian Giovinco.

This emphasis on youth has been pressed on almost to a fault, but Prandelli has shown encouraging signs that this is starting to change.  He recently requested that Udinese release their star forward and captain Antonio Di Natale, the two-time reigning Serie A capocannoniere, for training with the national team later this month.  

Di Natale, who at 34 would be the oldest non-goalkeeper Prandelli has called to the team, has not played for his country since the World Cup and his omission has been conspicuous considering his form and his stated desire to wear Savoy blue again.

Prandelli, who in his five season with Fiorentina transformed the viola from relegation-strugglers to group-winners in the UEFA Champions League and semifinalists in the Coppa Italia, has proven his tactical prowess.  

Combined with intelligent squad selection, his abilities are a key factor in Italy's Euro 2012 run.

Health

The April 7 return of Antonio Cassano to AC Milan was huge news for Italy's Euro campaign.  The top scorer for the Azzurri in qualifying with six goals, Cassano was sidelined in November after the discovery of a mild heart defect following a match against Roma.  He had surgery and has been working his way back ever since.

While it remains to be seen whether he will have enough time to round himself into good enough form to be included in Prandelli's plans, it is definitely a step in the right direction.  

If he shows enough in the remainder of the Serie A season Prandelli could easily give him a trial run in the May/June friendlies against Luxembourg and Russia to see if he can contribute.

His inclusion in the side would be a great help for two reasons: it would reinforce a forward line stretched thin by the injuries to him and to Rossi, and it would prevent a "not again" attitude in regards to injuries, as it was two key injuries that helped to sink the Italians two years ago.

Good Form

Don't let the loss to the United States in February fool you.  The Italians have been in good form for most of the Euro 2012 qualifying process.

Italy went unbeaten in Group C of the qualifying competition, recording eight wins (including an awarded victory after rioting Serbian fans forced an abandonment of the game) and two draws, both of which came away from home.

Friendlies have been a slightly different story in terms of record, but not necessarily in terms of performance.  Since Prandelli took over Italy has a record of two wins, two draws, and four losses in friendly matches.

But the record by itself is not a true indication of how the Italians played in those matches.  First off, Prandelli has a habit of experimenting and using "B teams" during friendlies, particularly when two games are played over the course of a week.  

The loss to Ireland, for example, came four days after the Azzurri thrashed Estonia 3-0 in Euro 2012 qualifying, and Prandelli kept several key players such as Gianluigi Buffon off the field.

A second look at those matches also show that Italy was often the better team on the field during the losses.  

Despite the 2-0 scoreline in last years loss to Ireland, Italy dominated the proceedings on the field with 68% possession and took 21 shots, though only one of them was able to hit the target.  They allowed the Irishmen only 5 shots themselves, the only difference being they were not nearly as wasteful with them.

The losses against the US and Uruguay carried similar statlines: 61 percent possession, 19 shots (seven on target) to only four shots (two on goal) allowed against the Americans and 68 percent possession, 20 shots (eight on goal) to only seven shots (two on goal) for Uruguay.

All three games were matches in which Cassano and Rossi were for the most part held out.  

While that can seem alarming considering that it's possible neither will participate in the Euros, a sharper edge in front of goal seems to be the final piece of the puzzle for the Italians to again become a dominant team.

It's also worth pointing out that one of those two friendly victories came against defending champion and Group C opponent Spain—but we'll talk about them later.

Gianluigi Buffon

Apologies to Iker Casillas, but Gianluigi Buffon is the best goalkeeper in the world.  After injuries derailed his season a year ago, many believed that he was in decline, but Gigi has shown with his stellar performance this season for Juventus that he won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

Buffon was one of two key players who missed the majority of the World Cup two years ago due to injury.  His absence was sorely felt.  His understudy, Federico Marchetti, allowed four goals on five shots on target and has not figured in the national team picture since.

Without Buffon, the crest of the Italian soccer federation would still have three stars on it instead of four.  In 2006 his fantastic, point blank saves in extra time against Lukas Podolski in the semifinal and Zinedine Zidane in the final were both game-saving efforts on what would almost certainly have been winners for Germany or France.  

This year he has been the keystone of a Juventus defense that has been one of the best in Europe this season, and easily the best in Italy.

Simply put, any team with him in goal has a chance at getting a result.  With a team like Italy, who have a defense anchored by Buffon's Juventus teammates Giorgio Chiellini and '06 World Cup winner Andrea Barzagli that can stop any team's strikers on any given day, it always gives Italy a strong chance at victory.

Andrea Pirlo

In talking about Antonio Cassano I mentioned two key injuries from the World Cup two years ago.  Buffon was one, Pirlo was the other.

The difference between an Italian attack with Andrea Pirlo and an Italian attack without Andrea Pirlo is vast.  His vision, skill, and creativity are unmatched in world soccer, and his prowess in dead-ball situations is approached by only a select few.

Injured in a pre-tournament friendly, Pirlo missed all but the last half-hour or so of the final game.  The in those first two games, you could tell Italy looked absolutely lost.  They scored two goals, one off a corner kick and one off a penalty kick.  There was no creativity or imagination from anyone.  

The match against New Zealand was particularly awful.  The Italian attack seemed to consist of getting the ball to the wing and crossing it, hoping that Alberto Gilardino or Vincenzo Iaquinta would get a head to it.

When Pirlo came on in the group stage finale against Slovakia, the team completely changed.  There was life in the attack.

 Pirlo's passing keyed a final push that scored two goals, both from open play, and another that was controversially disallowed for offside.  Had Pirlo been on the field, the Italian offense would likely have been much more dangerous—particularly against a minnow like New Zealand.

Pirlo's form last season was—as Buffon's—dropped thanks to injuries.  That drop led Milan to let him walk as a free agent to rivals Juventus—a move the rossoneri are likely regretting.

Pirlo has played fantastically this year and has led Juve to a one-point lead on Milan in the race for the scudetto.  He was just as good against the US in February.  Defenses must beware of his precise passes—particularly his skill with long balls—cutting through their defensive line.

Their Draw Is a Favorable One

Lady luck was kind to the Azzurri in December when the draw for the finals were held.  The Italians missed Group B—this year's Group of Death—which contains four teams that are all currently ranked in the top 10 by FIFA.  They also got two other bonuses from the draw.

The first doesn't exactly seem like a positive, but must be looked at beyond the immediate.  Italy will play reigning European and World champions Spain in their first group match on June 10.  

This is probably one of the best things the Italians could have asked for.  Italy has some leeway against the other two group games if they are unable to get points against Spain—even more so because the Spaniards will likely beat the other two teams in the group handily.

They would not have any leeway were they to meet the Spaniards early in the knockout stages.  Being drawn in the same group with them guarantees that should they progress out of the group they won't meet until the final.  

Regardless of when they play, the Italians should be confident of garnering at least a point in their group encounter—over their last two matches, totaling 210 minutes, the Italians have not allowed Spain to score in open play.

The second bonus the draw gave the Azzurri was the fact that they will not have to deal with any of the Group of Death teams until the semifinals.  All four potential quarterfinal opponents from Group D are teams that Italy has historically had a good amount of success against.

Italy's group is somewhat tricky, but should they—as expected—make it out, depending on the results of Group D the Italians may have a accessible route to at least the semifinals.

Motivation, Part One: South Africa

When Kamil Kopunek netted Slovakia's third goal against Italy at Ellis Park in Johannesburg, it capped the worst World Cup performance for Italy since 1974.  

That humiliation has been ruminating for the last two years, and the Italians will want to do something about it.  Italy bounced back four years later with a fourth place finish at the '78 World Cup in Argentina.

The South African humiliation looms large over this team, and will continue to do so until they prove themselves again in international competition.  There won't be a better time to do it than the present.

Motivation, Part Two: Scandal

Pictured is Giuseppe Signori.  The legendary former Lazio and Bologna striker is one of sixteen men that were arrested for involvement in Italy's latest match-fixing scandal, dubbed calcioscommesse.  

It's yet another blow to the reputation of Italian soccer, but if history tells us anything, these match-fixing scandals often end up being good omens for Italy on the international level.

At the 1982 World Cup in Spain, Serie A was rocked by a match-fixings scandal that saw several national team players implicated, including star striker Paolo Rossi.  

After advancing to the second round by the skin of their teeth with three uninspiring draws, the Azzurri went on to beat Argentina and Brazil in the second group, and eventually dispatched the favored Germans 3-1 to win their first World Cup in nearly 50 years, with Rossi winning the tournament's Golden Boot.

Six years ago, when calciopoli shook Italian soccer to its core, the Italians were not expected to make much noise in Germany.  They responded to these expectations by utterly dominating their opposition, keeping five clean sheets and allowing only two goals—one on an own goal, the other on a penalty kick.

Gigi Buffon kept opponents out of his goal for 453 straight minutes.  The Italians beat host Germany in the semifinals in one of the best matches of the 21st century, and then defeated France on penalties, avenging their loss in the Euro 2000 final.

For some reason, scandals like these motivate the Italians to exceed the pessimistic expectations that accompany them.  It's an unfortunate thing to be a harbinger of good things to come, but a harbinger it just may be.

Wrapup

The expectations are low for Italy this year, but that will likely work in their favor.  

Italy's forwards, lacking a scoring edge for much of the last 18 months, will find their edge and Prandelli's possession-based style will continue—with the possible exception of ball-hogs Spain—to keep opponents on their back foot.  

The draw, when looked at over the whole tournament, is possibly the most favorable they could have gotten.  And despite the black cloud of South Africa, they still run out some of the most talented soccer players in the world.

I am not quite so audacious as to pick the Azzurri to win the whole tournament, but I can say with confidence that the Italians will make it to the semifinals.  Once there, all bets are off.