2012 NFL Draft 1st-Round Odds: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys, like the Seattle Seahawks, find themselves in a good spot to draft the best player available that also addresses long-term need. They've been linked to about as many players in the first round as any team in the league, so it's hard to pin down a clear favorite for their pick.

20% - Mark Barron, S, Alabama – He fits a long-time need and Jason Garrett was at his pro day, just like he was Tyron Smith's last year. He's a high-floor pick and he has been in for a visit.

This is the earliest Barron could go off the board. My valuation of a solid two-way safety without elite physical tools puts him lower on my board, but I'm not ruling it out. 

15% - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford - Can't argue with DeCastro as a best player available here, and it's not like the Cowboys are set at guard after signing Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau. Stephen Jones indicated that defense is the better value because guards don't usually go as high as No. 14, but that could be a smokescreen.

SI.com's Tony Pauline hears the team is "very high" on the Stanford guard. DeCastro could go off the board anywhere from ninth to 13th despite Jones' assertion, so there's a decent chance he won't be there for the Cowboys to take.

15% - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU - The Cowboys need some new blood up front on defense and Brockers is just the kind of double-team-eating, penetrating giant they seem to covet. There's an outside chance Carolina or Kansas City take him before the Cowboys are on the board, but he'll probably be there.

Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram says not to read too much into Brockers' lack of a visit despite every top pick since 2006 coming in, because the Cowboys "like both players (Brockers and Dontari Poe) and know all they need to know."

15% - Trade Down - Jerry Jones has already hinted at this possibility, and the depth of the list of good prospects who are good fits confirms that this could be the angle. It mainly hinges on the team being able to only move down five to eight spots, where one of their targets would likely still be available.

10% - Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama - Barron wasn't the only one that Garrett watched at Alabama's pro day. Upshaw (and Trent Richardson) worked out, too. The Cowboys don't seem intent on signing Anthony Spencer long-term, and Upshaw is a younger, potentially better version. 

Director of Player Personnel Stephen Jones said they would take a "long, hard look" at Upshaw. Hill's source says Upshaw "won't be among the considerations" at 14. Getting past Seattle at 12 could be a hitch. He is one of the players who has visited the Cowboys.

10% - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - Gilmore may well be one of the Cowboys top two or three players on this list, but he also has the highest chance of being gone before they pick. He has been in for a visit.

10% - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis - The Cowboys have been linked to Poe, but they haven't had him in for a visit. Hill's note on Brockers that they have seen all they know all they need to know applies to Poe, too. In terms of absolute value, though, making a case for a project like Poe compared to the players who have proven so much against top competition is a difficult one to make.

It's possible, but I'm not feeling it.

2.5% - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State - If this was just a Cowboys wish list, Cox would be number one. I don't see him getting out of the top 10 picks, but it's not impossible that he falls to number 14.

2.5% - Cordy Glenn, OL, Georgia - Glenn has been in for one of the pre-draft visits, and he does fill a long-term need at guard, in addition to being the kind of behemoth on the offensive line that has flourished in Dallas in the past.

The buzz linking him to the Cowboys just isn't there, but perhaps that's a sign that he should be higher on this list.