NBA Draft 2012: Predicting Next Season's Rookie of the Year
The 2012 draft class is said to be one of the deepest in recent memory. Between players like Austin Rivers, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bradley Beal, there are sure to be some impact players in the class.
But being an impact player throughout a career is one thing, being Rookie of the Year is something completely different. Winning the award is based more on performance than it is on potential. In order to win the ROY, you need ample playing time and you have to be a productive player.
Since the NBA draft lottery hasn't even taken place, it's impossible to know where a player will end up being selected or what team they'll play for. For that reason, my selections will reflect players likely to be selected towards the top of the draft. Those players are not only the most talented, but they're also going to the worst teams, which means they're likely to get more playing time than someone going to a team with more depth.
Here are my predictions—in descending order—for the top three finishers for 2012-2013 NBA Rookie of the Year.
3. Bradley Beal, Shooting Guard/Point Guard, Florida
Beal is likely to be a top five selection in the draft. As such, he's likely to go a bad team and receive ample playing time. Not only will Beal play a lot of minutes, he's also got the requisite skills to excel early in his NBA career.
Beal posted a three-point percentage of .339 at Florida, so he showed that he's got some range to his shot. Also, if you had the chance to watch him play, you'll notice that he's got the ability to hit an NBA three-pointer (which is a longer shot than the NCAA three-pointer).
ESPN's Chad Ford wrote in his most recent mock draft that Beal's got the ball-handling skills to make a switch to point guard. While Beal may be a little undersized to play the 2 in the NBA, he'd be bigger than most of the point guards he would be going up against. Between his size advantage at point guard and his ability to keep defenders honest with his shooting ability, he's got all of the makings to compete for Rookie of the Year.
2. Thomas Robinson, Power Forward, Kansas
There are a few things to like about Robinson's chances to contribute early in the NBA. For one, he's got enough of a mid-range jump shot to spread the floor. Secondly, Robinson's displayed the ability to be an impact player on the glass.
Assuming he gets enough playing time, between his leaping ability and abilities as a rebounder, Robinson should be able to bring in double-digit rebounds as a rookie. Throw in his ability to shoot effectively from 18 feet, and Robinson also has the potential to consistently score double-digit points.
If Robinson can average near a double-double next season, he's almost assured of being in the running to win the Rookie of the Year award at season's end.
1. Anthony Davis, Power Forward/Center, Kentucky
There seems to be some debate as to what position Davis profiles at in the NBA. His 6'10" height and 220-pound frame might make him better suited to play the 4. However, his freakish 7'4" wingspan and ability as a shot-blocker could also make him a center. Either way, Davis is going to be an impact player from the get-go.
In Davis' favor is the fact that he's almost assured to be the No. 1 overall pick. Assuming that's the case, he's going to get plenty of playing time as a rookie. But not only will Davis get the playing time needed to win the Rookie of the Year, he's got the skills to produce.
Just watching him in the NCAA tournament, it's apparent that he'll be a factor on the defensive end right off the bat. His ability to block and alter shots will make him a force in the low post. Between his size, wingspan and skills, Davis will also be a productive rebounder in the NBA as a rookie. With rebounding and defense, he's already got two components to win the Rookie of the Year.
The only question with Davis is whether he'll have enough offense to win the award. Voters like offense, so Davis needs to show some production on that end of the court. His ability to clean up on the offensive glass should give him some high-percentage scoring opportunities. He's also sure to create some opportunities with his ball-handling skills and athleticism.
Put together his stellar defense and rebounding with an emerging offensive game, and it becomes apparent that Davis has all of the makings of the 2012-2013 NBA Rookie of the Year.
