NBA Draft 2012: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Should Go Before Andre Drummond

With Kentucky's Anthony Davis a virtual lock to be selected first overall in the 2012 NBA Draft, the real debate going forward is who should go next.

You could throw Kansas' Thomas Robinson into the mix of players in consideration, but the real choice is between Kentucky's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and UConn's Andre Drummond.

Robinson is a sure bet, but it's hard to imagine him as much more than a very good power forward—someone like a LaMarcus Aldridge with slightly inferior size. 

Kidd-Gilchrist is an NBA-ready wing player who could quickly become a star with an improved perimeter game.

Drummond, meanwhile, has the size and athletic makeup of a potentially dominant center, but he remains a raw and inconsistent prospect.

The case for Kidd-Gilchrist is simple.

Drafting him is less risky. He should yield an immediate impact for the lucky team that gets him, and there are absolutely no questions about his mind or motor. This kid is a winner from a winning program—he'll learn on the job as well as anyone can in the NBA.

His need for an improved outside shot shouldn't be a deal-breaker. It's a lot easier to improve a shot than it is to teach the things Kidd-Gilchrist already does so well.

At worst, he turns into another Andre Iguodala—not such a bad thing.

The worst-case scenario for Drummond, however, ranges anywhere from Kwame Brown to Hasheem Thabeet. His upside is seemingly limitless, but that's the very same logic that's turned so many big men into highly touted busts.

Drummond's freshman campaign was a picture-perfect example of why scouts can have such difficulty discerning future All-Stars from never-ending "projects."

The 6'11'' center has shown the kind of defensive tools that NBA coaches drool over, but he hasn't shown the consistency or low-post polish that distinguishes elite bigs from the countless prospects that don't pan out.

That doesn't mean Drummond can't improve—he's still young and could develop quickly in the right system and with the right coaching. He should get a chance to play right away on a team like the Washington Wizards, New Orleans Hornets or Charlotte Bobcats, and he'll have plenty of opportunities to prove himself while developing a still nascent set of skills.

Additionally, Drummond faced some rocky challenges as a freshman. He broke his nose before the season began and struggled to adjust to playing with a protective mask. He also played for a Huskies' team that failed to create enough opportunities for him to do his thing in the post.

These are legitimate reasons for giving Drummond the benefit of the doubt—not just excuses.

Nevertheless, upside is anything but a guarantee. Whereas a shooting coach and becoming accustomed to the NBA game may be all it takes for Kidd-Gilchrist to reach his potential, Drummond could need a lot more.

He wouldn't be the first highly-touted big whose NBA body never quite learned to play the NBA game.

If he does so, then he could rival elite young centers like Andrew Bynum—if he doesn't, the team that chooses Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ahead of him will be glad it did.