Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix: Thoughts and Preview

After a three-week break, Formula One returns on Sunday, April 15, for the Chinese Grand Prix.

The race will be held over 56 laps of the 3.387 mile (5.451 kilometre) Shanghai International Circuit—a total race distance of 189.559 miles (305.066 kilometres).

Coming into the weekend, Fernando Alonso leads the drivers' championship with 35 points, followed by Lewis Hamilton with 30 and Jenson Button a further five points back.

The build up to the race continues to be overshadowed by speculation on whether or not the Bahrain Grand Prix, which takes place a week after China, will go ahead.

Continued unrest in the Gulf state has led to suggestions that the race should be abandoned for the second year in a row. 

But important as it is, the Bahrain debate is a subplot this weekend. The immediate concern for the drivers and teams is Shanghai.

This will be the ninth Chinese Grand Prix, and in the six races between 2005-2010, each of the six world champions currently in F1 scored a single win.

Lewis Hamilton added a second win last year. Who's looking good in 2012?

Shanghai International Circuit

Does Hermann Tilke design the names for these places as well?

Ultra-modern and ultra-safe, the Shanghai track was designed by Tilke GmbH, and it follows most of the standard rules of modern circuit design.

Two long straights make up a large portion of the lap, and the infield section is filled with a variety of low, medium and high-speed corners.  

The forgiving tarmac run-off areas are the size of a small country, and a car leaving the track normally has no problems returning to the action.

Shanghai lacks individuality and character, but it's a track that can produce good racing and is one of the better Tilke designs.

Turn 1 (officially two corners) is an endless, almost circular right-hander with a fast entry, leading immediately into a tight left designated as Turn 3. Turn 4 is a barely-there, left-handed kink and is followed by a short straight to Turn 5—a right.

Heavy braking is required into the hairpin right at Turn 6, which could see some overtaking action during the race. 

From here the track sweeps into a very long and fast left-hander (Turn 7) and immediately into a similar, though slightly tighter and slower right (Turn 8).

Turn 9 follows straight away and is a deceptively tight left, leading into another, more open left (Turn 10) into a short straight. Overtaking may be possible into the tight, slow Turn 11—especially if a driver gets out of shape back at Turn 9.

Turns 12 and 13 are really a single, very long right-hand corner in which the cars accelerate through the gears and onto the longest straight in F1. Despite traveling in excess of 200mph, this is an opportunity for the driver to have a rest, fiddle with his buttons and perhaps do a bit of tactical planning.

The DRS zone during the race will be here, taking up approximately two-thirds of the straight.  It will be slightly shorter than the zone used last year.

After Turn 13 comes the signature Tilke hairpin 1,170 metres later, Turn 14. This is the heaviest braking point of the year, and according to brake manufacturer Brembo, drivers can be subjected to up to 6.08 Gs as they slow to snail's pace for the tight right-hander.

Turn 15 is officially on the exit of the hairpin, but it's not really worthy of a number.  A short straight follows before Turn 16. This is the final corner, an unusual and very abrupt left-hander which is very easy to get wrong.

The pit entry is also here, and as Lewis Hamilton showed us 2007, it's possible to get that wrong too.

The start-finish line is around halfway down the pit straight, and the pit exit is just before Turn 1.

Session Times

As usual, the weekend will consist of three practice sessions, qualifying and the race.

On Friday, the first practice session takes place at 10:00 local time, with the second at 14:00. The third session is at 11:00 on Saturday, and later that day qualifying starts at 14:00.

The race itself is due to start at 15:00 on Sunday.

The Formula 1 website will convert these to your local timezone.

Who's Looking Good for Pole?

The last two races have told us that McLaren almost certainly have the quickest car over a single lap. 

The British team locked out the front row in Australia and Malaysia, tracks with very different layouts, and there's nothing to indicate they'll suddenly lose their advantage in China.

But it's not a huge advantage. 

Mercedes, Lotus and Red Bull are very close in terms of one-lap pace. Three-tenths of a second covered the six cars in Malaysia, but this weekend, Mercedes could be the team most likely to challenge McLaren.

The Shanghai track has plenty of opportunities for the German team to use their unique DRS system, which stalls the front wing as well as the rear. That could tip the balance in their favour and see them push McLaren all the way. 

That said, the cars are already going quickly when they enter the main straight and most will be bouncing off their rev limiters in qualifying. So it might go the other way and make it less effective.

Lotus and Red Bull use the Renault engine, which perhaps isn't as strong as the Mercedes powerplant.  Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen are the men most likely to crash the top four, but they'll have to produce something very special.

Fernando Alonso could produce another miracle in the relatively sluggish Ferrari, but I don't see any of the other teams within touching distance of the front three rows.

Lewis Hamilton would have been my tip, but he has a five-place grid penalty after McLaren were forced to change his gearbox. Jenson Button has started second twice this year, and has a good chance of his first McLaren pole.

But Mercedes should go well, and Nico Rosberg is due a good qualifying session after two disappointments. So he's my pick.

Can Fernando Alonso Produce Another Shock?

Contrary to all expectations, Fernando Alonso won the wet-dry Malaysian Grand Prix and leads the championship on 35 points. 

Can he repeat his success this weekend?

If the race remains dry, absolutely not. We saw at the end of the race in Sepang how easily Sergio Perez reeled in Alonso, and the cars behind were quicker too.  Some, such as Kimi Raikkonen, were significantly so.

And while the Italian team will be running a handful of new parts at Shanghai, there will be no major leap forward. Writing on the Ferrari website, Alonso said:

"

I'm not expecting any surprises in this race, compared to what we saw in Australia and Malaysia.

It's true almost three weeks have gone by, but that does not mean there was enough time to completely turn the car around in such a short time: we will have a few small updates, but nothing particularly significant and on top of that, we can expect that the other teams will also bring some new parts.

"

The message is clear: the car still lacks pace, and Alonso's goal going into the weekend will be damage control. He can't run at the front, and he knows it.

But what if it rains?

BBC Weather is currently predicting light rain for the race, and in the wet, the deficiencies of the Ferrari appear to be wiped out. The Italian car is not the fastest on a wet track, and as good as he is in the dry, Alonso isn't the best driver.

He does, however, have a knack for ending up in the right place at the right time.

A win would still be unlikely, because a lot went his way in Malaysia and lightning rarely strikes twice.  But a podium wouldn't be out of the question.

What of Sergio Perez?

The more I think about it, the more I think Sergio Perez should be kicking himself and his team after Malaysia.

While no one could deny Perez drove an admirable race, he really, really should have won. 

Sauber messed up by delaying his pit stop onto slicks, which cost him six seconds. Then the young Mexican made a driver error, lost a further five seconds, and had to settle for second.

But then, everyone makes mistakes. On the positive side, Perez was easily the quickest man on the circuit as the track approached slick conditions, and he was as fast as anyone—bar Kimi Raikkonen—during the final dry stint.

His confidence will be high going into the Chinese Grand Prix, and Sauber have built a quietly competitive car. In race trim it looks like one of the best in the field, but neither Perez nor teammate Kamui Kobayashi appear able to get the most from it in qualifying.

McLaren, Mercedes, Lotus and Red Bull have faster single-lap cars. Though seemingly quicker in the races, Sauber will be battling Williams, Force India and Toro Rosso on Saturday.

So that's probably where Sergio's race will be determined. If he can start in the top 10—or have a strong first lap—good points should be possible. Another podium is perhaps beyond his reach, but the top six isn't an unrealistic goal.

Exactly How Fast Are Lotus?

During winter testing, Lotus appeared to be very fast. But it was just testing, and regardless of how frequently they finished at the top of the time sheets, we wouldn't find out for sure until we'd seen a race.

Or so we thought.

We've seen what Lotus can do in qualifying—Romain Grosjean started third in Australia, and both cars qualified well in Malaysia. But thanks to rain, traffic and Grosjean's gravel trap fetish, we haven't yet seen the black and gold cars racing near the front.

The best we have to go on are the few laps Raikkonen managed in clean air in Australia and the final stint on slick tyres in Malaysia. At Albert Park, the Lotus appeared only marginally—two seconds over 10 laps—slower than Jenson Button's leading McLaren.

At Sepang, it was easily the quickest car on the track. And we know it can look after its tyres well.

We don't have a great deal to go on, but it wouldn't be outlandish to say the Lotus could actually be the best race car at the moment.

Hopefully we'll find out more in Shanghai.

How's the Midfield Looking?

On current dry weather combined race and qualifying pace, the midfield consists of Sauber, Toro Rosso, Williams, Force India and Ferrari. Caterham would like to be included here, but they're not quite quick enough yet. 

The form book suggests Sauber should be the team with the best chance of scoring some good points, but Williams appear to have real pace and could also be in the mix.

The four drivers—Sergio Perez, Kamui Kobayashi, Pastor Maldonado and Bruno Senna—have each put in one drive worthy of recognition, and with not much between the cars, it'll be down to them to make the difference. 

Force India will have hoped for a better start to the year after impressing towards the end of 2011, but right now they don't seem capable of running at the front of the midfield. Toro Rosso are in a similar position.

All four teams have improved. Sadly for them, everyone else has improved as well. 

And so we come to Ferrari.

The Italian car is, by their own standards, very poor. Even in the hands of Fernando Alonso it's woefully short of race pace, and realistically the Spaniard will be hoping he can qualify well and somehow hang on to a Top 10 position.

Felipe Massa's performance will probably be less spectacular, but equally as interesting. The closeness of the midfield is conspiring against Felipe—it's so tight that even if he keeps within a respectable three-tenths of Alonso, he could find himself six places behind.

The Brazilian desperately needs points on the board to relieve some of the pressure, but he doesn't have a points-scoring car. All Massa can do is keep it together, drive a steady race and hope for retirements.

So Who'll Win?

Pass.

This year has started in such a way that picking a winner at this stage is very difficult. McLaren have a small advantage over one lap but not in the race. Red Bull can't qualify quite as well, but they make up for it on race pace.

Mercedes should go backwards from their starting positions, but maybe they won't. And Lotus remain something of a mystery package.

One could say that the winner will almost certainly come from one of those four teams, but that's like saying the Grand National will probably be won by a horse.

If pushed, I'd narrow it down to Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen. 

Button will be the only McLaren at the front, and is a sure bet to be in the battle for pole position.  The Englishman tends to go well in Shanghai, and McLaren have a solid all-round car, so he'd be my first-choice pick.

Raikkonen is my outside bet. Qualifying will be the key for the Finn—if he can put the Lotus on the front two rows, I think he has a real chance of taking victory. 

Further back, traffic may prove too heavy—especially if the traffic consists of straight-line kings McLaren or Mercedes.

But as we saw in Malaysia, it could be anyone.

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