2012 NBA Playoffs: Predicting Who Makes the Cut

At long last, this topsy-turvy 2011-12 NBA regular season is nearing its close.

We are only three weeks away from the final week, and we still have plenty of spots to be decided. In the East, we have the Miami Heat standing only 2.5 games back of the first-place Chicago Bulls, while the Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks are separated by 1.5 games.

In the West, we see the San Antonio Spurs only a game back of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the first seed, and the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies are currently tied for the fifth seed. These are all great battles, but they hardly compare to what's going on at the bottom of these playoff standings.

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks are currently fighting for the eighth spot. The Knicks have been supported by the Jeremy Lin craze and the firing of Mike D'Antoni, but the Bucks, with newly added Monta Ellis, are winners of four of their past five and have a much easier schedule to end the year compared to the Knicks.

The Sixers have also joined the competition and now stand 1.5 games ahead of the Knicks.

The seventh and eighth seeds are completely up for grabs in the West. The Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets are currently tied for the seventh seed, while the Phoenix Suns are only a game behind and the Utah Jazz stand 1.5 games behind.

We take a look at these seven teams and figure out who's going to the playoffs and who's getting set for the lottery.

Philadelphia 76ers

Key games: vs. Orlando (April 7), at Boston (April 8), at Orlando (April 16), vs. Indiana (April 17), at Cleveland (April 18), at Indiana (April 21), at Milwaukee (April 25)

What a way to end the season. The Philadelphia 76ers' toughest competition features two games against the Indiana Pacers and two more against the Orlando Magic, but those four games won't even be the toughest stretch of the season.

The Sixers still have to go through a three-night stretch where they play three games. They'll be on the road against Orlando before going back home to face Indiana. They'll then find themselves immediately back on the road as they travel to Cleveland. Following the conclusion of the meeting with the Cavaliers, the Sixers will have the benefit of taking on New Jersey, Milwaukee and Detroit in the final week.

Of course, the schedule makers couldn't make it easy. That April 17 matchup against the Pacers is the final home game of the regular season for Philadelphia. They finish off the year with five consecutive road games and six of their last seven on the road. Overall, nine of their final 12 games will come on the road.

Philadelphia is 10-14 on the road and hasn't won away from home since it defeated the Charlotte Bobcats on March 19. Since then, it's lost to San Antonio, Washington and Miami.

It was only a few weeks ago that the Sixers had a tremendous lead in the Atlantic Division. Nowadays, they find themselves in the seventh seed only 1.5 games ahead of eighth place and three games ahead of ninth. It would be tough to imagine a team giving up a lead that large in the span of a few weeks, but it's possible with the way Philadelphia has played over the past few weeks.

They've lost three of their past four games and four out of their past six, including embarrassing losses on the road in Washington and at home against Toronto.

Philadelphia has struggled, and even with nine road games to look forward to, it should still make it in as a seventh seed. It still gets the New Jersey Nets three times and the advantage of facing some of the Central Division's worst teams. Even a team that's been as bad as the Sixers have been lately should be able to make the playoffs with that type of schedule.

New York Knicks

Key games: vs. Chicago (April 8), at Chicago (April 10), at Milwaukee (April 11), vs. Miami (April 15), vs. Boston (April 17), at Atlanta (April 22), vs. Los Angeles Clippers (April 25)

Peppered in with games against Washington, Cleveland, New Jersey and Charlotte, the New York Knicks' schedule may be the toughest amongst any other team contending for a playoff spot.

The Knicks have it bad. Really bad. They can look forward to taking on the Chicago Bulls in a home-and-home and a game against the ninth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks the night after.

The road to the playoffs only gets tougher with games at home against the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Clippers, as well as a tough road game against the Atlanta Hawks.

There's absolutely no room for error here.

The Knicks are going to have to beat the four aforementioned non-playoff teams and then find a way to steal at least two games against those playoff-bound teams if they want to make the playoffs. Perhaps their biggest matchup of the final month of the regular season is their meeting with the Bucks, the team that's currently 1.5 games back of them for the eighth spot.

The Knicks will be taking on the Bucks a night after taking on the Bulls for the second time in three days. They're not only going to be jet-lagged flying from Chicago to Milwaukee in a night, but they're also going to be weary and tired after taking on Orlando and the Bulls twice in the span of six days.

Not to mention that they're going to be short-handed the rest of the year as they play without Amar'e Stoudemire and Jeremy Lin.

It's tough to see the Knicks making the playoffs at this point. They've been an up-and-down team all year, where they'll win five consecutive games only to see it end with a 17-point loss to the Toronto Raptors. This team just hasn't been consistent enough throughout the schedule to convince me that it's ready to take on teams like Chicago, Miami and Boston in the final month.

New York's schedule's strength is far less than that of the Bucks.

It's going to come down to defense, and the Knicks simply don't have the type of defensive philosophy to compete with three of the league's stingiest defenses five times over the coming weeks.

Milwaukee Bucks

Key games: vs. Oklahoma City (4/9), vs. New York (4/11), vs. Indiana (4/14), at Indiana (4/19), vs. Philadelphia (4/25), at Boston (4/26)

After a slow start to the season, the Milwaukee Bucks have quietly worked their way back into the playoff race and are now only a game out of the final playoff spot.

Judging by their schedule, as well as the Knicks', it's actually becoming easier to be convinced that the Bucks will take the eighth seed and make it into the playoffs, with a possible date against the Chicago Bulls awaiting.

The Bucks have been greatly aided by the deal that sent Andrew Bogut to Golden State in exchange for shooting guard Monta Ellis. They're 7-4 since he joined the team and winners of four of their past five. Ellis scored 30 or more points in two of the past five games, with a 33-point performance in a win against the Atlanta Hawks being his highest scoring output since joining the Bucks.

In one deal, the Bucks suddenly went from having a boring, stagnant offense to one that is actually exciting to watch. Ellis and Brandon Jennings are already working together well and have formed one of the NBA's top backcourts. The two are high-volume scorers who can go off at any time.

However, both players can get extremely jump-shot happy and that's not going to work in the middle of a playoff race.

The Bucks' schedule isn't too difficult to finish off the year, which is why it is believable that they'll pass the Knicks. They don't have to face the Bulls twice or the Heat in the span of a week. Instead, they'll be greeted with two games against Indiana, a back-to-back against Philadelphia and Boston to finish off the season and a date at home against the Western Conference's best team in Oklahoma City.

Their most significant game will come on the 11th, when they take on the Knicks. New York will be entering the contest after what is sure to be a struggle of a game against Chicago the night before, and it'll be the Bucks' greatest opportunity to make up some ground on the team that currently holds the eighth spot by a game.

With the Knicks dealing with a tough schedule and injuries, the Bucks should be the ones who end up taking the eighth seed to play either the Bulls or the Heat, depending on how their seasons turn out.

Houston Rockets

Key games: at Los Angeles Lakers (4/6), vs. Utah (4/11), vs. Phoenix (4/13), at Denver (4/15), vs. Denver (4/16), at Dallas (4/18), at Miami (4/22)

One year after losing a close race to the Memphis Grizzlies for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, the Houston Rockets find themselves in a similar situation.

The team is currently tied with the Denver Nuggets for the seventh seed, a game ahead of the ninth-place Phoenix Suns and a game and a half ahead of the tenth-place Utah Jazz. As you can tell, the race for the seventh and eighth spots is going to come down to the wire, with four teams separated by less than two games.

It's going to come down to the final weeks of the season, and the Rockets look poised to nab one of those seeds after barely missing out last season. They recently split a tough back-to-back against Indiana and Chicago and will now face nothing but Western Conference opponents until April 22, when they will take on the Miami Heat.

In between now and then, the Rockets have a series of huge games that are going to greatly shake up the playoff race. They'll take on the tenth-place Jazz and the ninth-place Suns in the span of two days, and will then face off with the eighth-place Nuggets in a home-and-home that is also a back-to-back.

In four consecutive games between the 11th and 16th, the Rockets could either solidify a playoff spot or potentially find themselves out of the playoff race.

They also have the benefit of a few games that they have no right losing, with contests against Sacramento, Golden State, Portland and two against the New Orleans Hornets. In times like these, those are the games you cannot afford to lose.

Unlike last year, the Rockets should end up with the seventh or eighth seed. They've played well over the past few weeks and are riding high after defeating the Bulls on the road by six. They have three straight road games coming up, as well as a back-to-back, but can at least be relieved that the teams they face on the back-to-back are the Kings and Blazers.

Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola and Kevin Martin have done an excellent job with this team. As long as they manage a winning record out of that four-game stretch where they take on opponents who are also attempting to grab a playoff seed, then we should see the Rockets back in the playoffs after a year's absence.

Denver Nuggets

Key games: vs. Phoenix (4/6), at Los Angeles Lakers (4/13), vs. Houston (4/15), at Houston (4/16), vs. Los Angeles Clippers (4/18), at Phoenix (4/21), vs. Orlando (4/22), at Oklahoma City (4/25)

It'll be a tough road without the leadership of Chauncey Billups, the shooting ability of Carmelo Anthony and the post presence of Nene Hilario, but the Denver Nuggets should be able to find themselves in the postseason by the end of the month.

Of course, it won't be easy. Not with a back-to-back against Houston, road games against the Lakers and Thunder and two games against the Phoenix Suns. The Nuggets will be playing four games against teams that are also competing with them for a playoff spot, and they will have to be just as motivated as their opponents are if they want to come away victorious.

The Nuggets have been a terrific story of resilience. Even though they've lost three of their top players over the past year and change, they have managed to overcome and now find themselves contending for a ninth consecutive postseason appearance. Eight of those appearances ended in the first round, however, with the only exception being a visit to the conference finals in 2009.

This team is arguably one of the more dangerous squads competing for a playoff spot. They're the highest-scoring team in the NBA, recording 103 points per game, and they also happen to be the most lethal on the fast break. This is a team that likes to run, likes to score a lot and has plenty of weapons to do that with.

The depth on this team is its strongest suit. They already have guys like Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Arron Afflalo, Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee in the starting lineup, but then they also happen to have a bench that could pass for a starting lineup as well. Wilson Chandler, Al Harrington, Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez round out a dangerous bench.

The Nuggets have a tough schedule ahead of them. It's crucial that they get at least one win in that back-to-back against Houston, as well as a win in their two games against Phoenix. They don't have anything easy with two games against Minnesota and two games against Golden State being their only relief for the month of April.

It'll be tough, but depth will save them in the end. This team is too good on offense, too deep off the bench and too skillful at nearly every aspect of the game not to overcome the difficult end to the season and make it to another postseason.

Phoenix Suns

Key games: at Denver (4/6), vs. Los Angeles Lakers (4/7), at Memphis (4/11), at Houston (4/13), at San Antonio (4/14), vs. Oklahoma City (4/18), vs. Los Angeles Clippers (4/19), vs. Denver (4/21), at Utah (4/24), vs. San Antonio (4/25)

Did I say the New York Knicks had the toughest schedule to end the season? Let me rid the Knicks of that label and promptly give it to the team with the most insanely tough schedule to end the year in the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns are going to play two teams with a record under .500 in the next 12 games. Those two teams happen to be the Minnesota Timberwolves and Portland Trail Blazers, both of which are not easy to beat. Basically, the Suns are going to have nothing but difficult opponents the rest of the way, and it's going to keep them out of the playoffs.

It's also probably going to make Steve Nash wonder which team he could possibly join next year. The point guard is aching for a championship to end his career with, and it's becoming more and more unlikely that the team he's going to win it with will be the Suns. It doesn't appear that this is going to be the year, either. The end of the season is far too difficult.

Even elite teams would struggle with a schedule like that. There is absolutely no time to take a break. It's elite opponent after elite opponent for the Suns, as it seems that they spent the first three quarters of the season facing the average and below-average teams of the league. It's the only explanation for this absurd stretch of games to finish the year.

The Suns have four back-to-backs this month, with each one being more difficult than the last. They start off with Denver and the Lakers this weekend, road games against Houston and San Antonio next weekend, home games against Oklahoma City and the Clippers the next week, and then they end the season with games against Utah and San Antonio.

Hey, Steve! Has anybody told you how good you look in red, white and black?

Utah Jazz

Key games: at San Antonio (4/8), vs. San Antonio (4/9), at Houston (4/11), at Memphis (4/14), vs. Dallas (4/16), vs. Orlando (4/21), vs. Phoenix (4/24) 

Of the four teams in this jumbled playoff race in the middle of the Western Conference, the Utah Jazz have the most favorable schedule.

The toughest stretch of games they encounter will be a back-to-back against the Southwest Division-leading San Antonio Spurs. They have decisive games against Houston and Phoenix, with other solid opponents in Memphis, Orlando and Dallas. They have two important games against Portland and two winnable games against Golden State and New Orleans.

The Jazz could have begun their run on the 4th with a pivotal game against the Suns. Alas, they squandered the opportunity by surrendering a game-winner to Steve Nash in the final seconds. Paul Millsap tipped in the potential game-tying shot, but it came after the buzzer had already went off.

They'll have another chance to take them on in the second-to-last game of the season. By that point, who knows what the implications could be?

Like the Denver Nuggets, the Utah Jazz have also been a superb tale of resilience and laughter in the face of obscurity. They're playing in their first full season without Deron Williams and legendary coach Jerry Sloan. While Devin Harris is still playing far below expectations and Tyrone Corbin might not make the Hall of Fame, the Jazz have been the surprise team of the year and are being carried by their vaunted frontcourt.

Millsap, Gordon Hayward, Al Jefferson, Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors have been outstanding, scoring points near the rim and grabbing boards. They've done an excellent job making up for the shortcomings of the backcourt and are the reason why the Jazz are in this race. This team is equipped with arguably the best offensive frontcourt in the NBA, and they've utilized that to their advantage.

However, it's tough to see them making it to the playoffs with how badly the backcourt has played. Even with a light schedule, it's still going to be tough for them to make up two games when they're still dropping crucial games against the Suns and haven't beaten a playoff-bound team since March 23.

Since then, they've lost to Atlanta, Boston, the Clippers and Phoenix. The Jazz still have a chance to make it, but they're going to have to start beating tough opponents before they even begin thinking about the playoffs.