Masters Field 2012: Why Smart Money Is on Golf's Biggest Names

In the old days, before all hell broke loose in the winter of 2009, the questions concerning the Masters and every other major tournament were always the same:

Tiger or the field?

For the first time in a long time, it's safe to ask that question again. Tiger Woods is playing outstanding golf, and he's coming into the 2012 Masters fresh off a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He's a legit threat to win the Green Jacket, which would be the fifth of his career.

However, Tiger's not alone at the tippy-top of the field this year. He's a big favorite to win the Masters, but Rory McIlroy is right there with them, which makes sense given how well McIlroy is playing this year and how well he played at Augusta National last year before he fell apart in the final round.

Also in the discussion is three-time Masters champ Phil Mickelson, defending Masters champion Charl Schwartzel, PGA Championship winner Keegan Bradley and Shell Houston Open winner Hunter Mahan. Though they haven't won any majors yet, you obviously can't out World Golf Rankings standouts like Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Steve Stricker and Martin Kaymer.

So the question this year isn't exactly "Tiger or the field?" It's more like "Tiger and everyone else or the field?"

Though the field is undoubtedly top-heavy, it's still as tempting as ever to pick a dark horse from the field to win the whole thing. You know, somebody like Ryo Ishikawa (T20 at Masters in 2011) or perhaps even an amateur like Kelly Kraft (2011 U.S. Amateur champion). After all, you never know what can happen at Augusta National. Just take a look at what happened last year.

This is true. Schwartzel came out of nowhere to win the whole thing, and Australian comrades Jason Day and Adam Scott both made surprise runs at the Green Jacket. Come to think of it, of the four major winners in 2011, only Rory McIlroy was a superstar before earning his victory.

That's golf for you. It all depends on how the wind is blowing, and even the best golfers can look like amateurs on a bad day.

However, one thing everyone has to keep in mind about the 2011 season was that the field was wide open all year. It was like that because Tiger's game was still a work in progress, and because McIlroy had trouble being great on a consistent basis. Mickelson was up and down all year, as he usually is, and top players like Donald, Westwood and Kaymer saved their best golf for the tournaments in between the majors.

At the very least, we know that things are different with Tiger and McIlroy this year. Tiger has looked much more like his old self ever since he finally got healthy towards the end of the 2011, and McIlroy has threatened to win every tournament he's played this season.

If you want to make the safest bet possible, pick one of them to win the Masters. There's a reason they're both at the very top of the list of players with the best odds (see Bovada).

Mickelson is up there, too, and he wouldn't be a bad pick seeing as how he just finished fourth at the Shell Houston Open. Mahan won that tournament, and he's also a good bet to win seeing as how he finished in the top 10 at the Masters in 2009 and 2010 before missing the cut last year.

I wouldn't recommend banking on Donald, Westwood, Stricker or Kaymer, but they obviously can't be excluded from the conversation. The four of them are great golfers. They just haven't been great enough to win a major. Asking them to be great enough to win a major is not asking too much.

You're certainly welcome to pick a dark horse to win the Masters. But this year, the big guns are going to own Augusta National.