The SPL Is Too Close to Call

The Scottish Premier League title race is poised to enter its final round of fixtures before the split, and a roller-coaster December/January has left us none the wiser as to the identity of the Champions in May. 

At the beginning of that two-month period, Celtic held a seven-point lead over Rangers. They proceeded to lose it, regain it, then lose it again in a run of games where they have shown anything but the form of Champions, taking just eight points from a possible 18.

Indeed, had Scott McDonald not scored his wonder goal at Ibrox in that 1-0 win, Rangers would now be top of the league.

The next 11 matches probably won’t separate the teams by much:

Celtic

(H) Hibernian

(A) Inverness CT

(H) Rangers

(A) Motherwell

(H) St Mirren

(A) Kilmarnock

(H) Falkirk

(A) DundeeUtd

(H) Hamilton

(A) Hearts

(H) Aberdeen

Rangers

(A) Aberdeen

(H) DundeeUtd

(A) Celtic

(H) Kilmarnock

(A) Hamilton

(H) Inverness

(A) St Mirren

(H) Hearts

(A) Falkirk

(H) Motherwell

(A) Hibernian

Both sides could drop points before they play each other again. On paper, Celtic have the slightly easier task before that meeting on Feb. 15. The majority of Rangers-Dundee Utd matches in the past two seasons have been draws, despite United being on the end of some horrendous luck, as well as some inexplicable refereeing decisions. They are due a win over the Ibrox club.

Celtic’s poor run of form cannot continue forever, and they will be hoping to have extended their lead to at least four points before facing Rangers again. The events of December-January tell us that whatever happens at Celtic Park on Feb. 15, nothing will be decided by that match.

Potential banana-skins for Celtic after the meeting with Rangers are away matches to Motherwell, Dundee Utd and Hearts, not to mention the chance to settle the score with Aberdeen at home in the final match before the split. Rangers will be hoping for Celtic to spill points in all of those matches.

The only match you would realistically expect Rangers to drop points in thereafter is their final match before the split, away to Hibernian. They should be too strong for the rest, with only Hearts perhaps threatening to deprive them of points, but their record at Ibrox is horrendous.

To be ahead by the split, Celtic may need to beat Rangers, and hope they have already dropped points to Aberdeen and Dundee Utd, as Rangers certainly have the easier run in.

The top six this season will be; Celtic, Rangers, Aberdeen, Dundee Utd, Hearts and either Hibs or Motherwell. A lot will depend on how the final five matches are drawn.

Celtic will have played 17 home matches and Rangers 16, meaning Rangers will have three home fixtures and Celtic two after the split. Rangers will also have home advantage in the final derby match. Celtic will also face another trip to Aberdeen.

On paper at least, Rangers may be slight favourites to take the title.

What matters now is how the season pans out off the field. Rangers are in serious financial difficulties, and administration is being openly spoken of.

Should that happen, SPL rules dictate they will be docked 10 points. It probably won’t happen, but Rangers will not be significantly strengthened in the remaining two weeks of the transfer window.

Celtic have no such financial worries, and can certainly afford a moderate spend, and a left back and central defender would go a long way to sorting out a defence which has become alarmingly easy to breach recently. Whether the board will sanction a signing or two is another matter.

Historically, they have been content to do just enough to stay ahead of Rangers. If they want to be certain of that this season, signings will be necessary to strengthen a team which has seen no significant investment since last January.

My prediction for the title is Celtic to edge it.

Just.