2012 NFL Draft: Predicting Landing Spots for Top Prospects

Remember the film Ocean's Eleven? The more recently-made, star-studded one, not the 1960s version starring the Rat Pack. 

The entire film is set up to make you think they are executing a particular plan, but Danny Ocean's crew is really pulling off an elaborate deception designed to help them get away scot-free. Both the film's antagonist and audience are duped by the ploy, until the twist is revealed at the end.

In the NFL, the Month of Misinformation has been kicked into high gear. Teams have begun finalizing their plans to plunder the NFL Draft, and they are doing everything from public posturing to cocooning to execute those plans with some sleight of hand.

Now that the NFL combine, pro days and most of free agency are behind us, teams are setting their draft boards while putting on airs about their strategy. 

Who will the Colts take with the top pick in the draft? Are the Browns really interested in Ryan Tannehill, and will that cause the Dolphins to pay the price to hop them? Is Fletcher Cox really a top-10 pick?

All these questions and more are answered as I give you my predictions here.

Drama at the Top

Andrew Luck has been pegged at the top of the 2012 draft since he decided to return to Stanford for the 2011 season. Perhaps all his time at the top has given everyone else too much time to think about it, because Robert Griffin III's draft stock has been surging hard and heavy since January.

Even so, conventional wisdom still had Luck firmly entrenched as the top draft pick when Washington traded the farm to move up to the No. 2 spot in the draft, presumably to take Griffin.

The former Baylor Bear sizzled at the combine and dazzled at his pro day. While Luck performed quite well in his turn, Griffin is commanding all the buzz right now.

Fast forward to March, when head coach Chuck Pagano quietly attended Griffin's pro day workout, subsequently skipping Luck's at Stanford. 

Was Indianapolis brass changing their mind? Did Washington luck out?

No.

In the end, all this posturing will lead back to the beginning: The Colts will take Andrew Luck on April 26th. Simply put, he is the whole package, and he is ready to go from day one. Griffin is a talented quarterback with a high ceiling, indeed, but he is not the polished player that Luck is.

Every team should be doing their due diligence, so the Colts should be no different, despite their commitment to Luck.

Meanwhile, back in Cleveland, there is a growing suspicion they are taking a hard look at Ryan Tannehill to draft with the No. 4 pick. 

I do not buy it. 

Tom Heckert has openly supported Colt McCoy multiple times this offseason. Granted, the whole sleight-of-hand idea could mean the Browns are simply posturing, but they have also said they are open to trading down.

True, Cleveland sent a contingent to the former Aggie's pro day workout, but Heckert and Pat Shurmur, the big guns, were attending Trent Richardson's. 

More important, however, is that Tannehill simply is not a top-five-caliber pick. That is not a knock on him; his stock is simply soaring artificially.

Simply put, Cleveland is doing their homework for posterity, and perhaps gauging trade interest for any teams who might be willing to move up to take Tannehill. He will wind up in Miami, if another team like Kansas City or Philadelphia does not sneak ahead of them to snag him.

Wonderlic Boy and His Sidekicks

Every draft season we hear about a particularly awful Wonderlic score. Morris Claiborne is that man this year.

Claiborne has been dogged by wrist surgery and a poor Wonderlic score over the past several weeks, though his poor test score is reportedly due to a learning disability. 

None of that matters.

The LSU product is the head and shoulders of this cornerback class. Throw out his Wonderlic score because of his learning ability and that it probably does not mean much in the grand scheme of things for a prospects, and his wrist will heal.

His landing spot really depends on what the Browns want with the fourth pick. It is between Trent Richardson, Ryan Tannehill and Claiborne. I believe they will take Richardson there, leaving Claiborne to land with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While Claiborne is a virtual lock for the top five, the same cannot be said for the other big-name cornerbacks in the draft.

Dre Kirkpatrick, once considered a potential top-10 pick, has seen his stock slowly leak value over the course of draft season. He did not show off elite athleticism at the combine, and his sheer lack of production has draftniks questioning his playmaking ability. He has even been pegged as a future free safety—not quite a ringing endorsement for a top cornerback.

Dallas was a logical landing spot for the former Crimson Tide cornerback, but the signing of Brandon Carr will have them focusing on other needs early in the draft. Without a natural fit in the top 20, the Lions will gladly scoop him up with the 23rd pick.

Meanwhile, on the other end of the draft stock spectrum, Stephon Gilmore has been looking better and better throughout draft season, to the point where he has seemingly supplanted Kirkpatrick as the No. 2 corner on the board.

What does this mean for his landing spot? The Bengals are a threat to draft him twice—they own picks 17 and 21 in the first round—and they will make good on that threat come draft day.

The other big name at cornerback is Janoris Jenkins, whose stock had been hanging around the first round despite off-the-field issues. Those issues have caught up with him. He will slide all the way out of the first round and find himself with the St. Louis Rams.

It is worth mentioning that the only non-cornerback likely taken in the first round in the secondary will be Mark Barron, whose stock is quite volatile. He is going to either the Packers or Patriots at the bottom of the first round.

The Great Receiver Debate

Much like Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon had been pegged at the top of the wide receiver heap for months leading up to draft season. Unlike Luck, however, there is a real possibility Blackmon will not be the first receiver taken.

Brandon Weeden's touchdown machine had gaudy stats coming out of college, but his lack of elite measurables have some questioning whether he is worthy of a top pick in this draft. He does not possess the combination of size and speed that guys like Calvin Johnson have, putting him in the same class as Michael Crabtree, though perhaps without the diva attitude.

The receiver who has gained the most steam this offseason is Michael Floyd out of Notre Dame. The big receiver showed off excellent speed at the combine and excellent hands at his pro day, catching everything thrown his way. 

More importantly, his off-the-field issues—without which his draft stock would have been on par with Blackmon's going into draft season—genuinely seem to be a thing of the past.

Who gets taken first?

Michael Floyd, in a bit of a surprise, will be the first wide receiver taken by the Buffalo Bills. Teams in the top 10 will simply have other players higher on their boards at bigger positions of need, leaving the Bills the pick of the litter at receiver.

This leaves Blackmon to fall to the Cardinals with the 13th pick and complement Larry Fitzgerald out west. It may not be a huge need for Arizona, but they will not be able to pass up getting Fitzgerald serious help on the outside.

After the top two, Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffery and Stephen Hill as the other likely first-round picks. 

Wright's star was on the rise before a relatively disappointing combine performance, at least in the 40-yard dash. He dispelled any notion of poor speed at his pro day, however, restoring his draft stock in the process.

His skills will complement A.J. Green in Cincinnati as they use their other first-rounder when he falls to them.

Jeffery and Hill are wild cards to a degree; they could be high draft picks, or they may not be drafted in the first round after all. I think they will be. 

Hill will be a great addition to a Texans team that has lacked a good No. 2 receiver opposite Andre Johnson, and the Ravens will take a shot on Alshon Jeffery with the 29th pick in the first round, putting five total receivers in the round.

The Big Uglies

Matt Kalil solidified himself as the top offensive tackle in the draft over the course of the past few months. He was already a likely top-five pick before cementing that status at the combine.

There is little drama here, as he is likely Minnesota-bound barring another blockbuster trade.

Similarly, David DeCastro has made himself the consensus top offensive guard in the draft. His fate is a much bigger question, however, as teams tend to avoid guards at the top of the draft.

He has been hailed as the best guard to come out since Steve Hutchinson, and even Hutchinson fell all the way to Seattle with the 17th pick. Will a similar fate await DeCastro?

With the new CBA putting a rookie wage scale in place, old models are melting. One of those could be the perception that you should not invest that much in a guard coming out of college. This means DeCastro could very well go in the top 10.

Indeed, DeCastro's talent and versatility will drive him through the glass ceiling when the Rams take him with the sixth pick in the draft. 

After those two, it is anybody's guess where the offensive linemen land. Riley Reiff's stock has slipped since the combine due to concerns about short arms, but the Chiefs will move him inside to develop when they take him at 11.

Jonathan Martin will be the next lineman to go. He was heading to Philadelphia before they signed Demetrius Bell, filling the hole Jason Peters left when he ruptured his Achilles in Philadelphia, so that puts him into a bit of a free fall until the Steelers pick at 24. They will be torn between choosing Martin and Dont'a Hightower, inside linebacker out of Alabama, but protecting Ben Roethlisberger will win out.

Perhaps the biggest question mark among offensive linemen is Mike Adams out of Ohio State. He has not exactly helped improve the perception that he is not a hard worker, but at 6'7" and 320 pounds, a tackle-needy team will take a chance on him in the first round. 

That team will be the New York Giants.

The Sack Artists

In a pass-happy world, the best way to counter the quarterback is to pressure him. As such, pass-rushers are at a premium, and they tend to rise on draft day.

Without a clear leader of the pack, Melvin Ingram will emerge as the top pass-rusher, taken by the Jaguars. He may have some concerns about size and arm length as a defensive end, but his athleticism and ability to get to the quarterback are unmatched in the draft.

Nick Perry's fantastic workout showings this draft season have raised his stock to its peak, proving him to be one of the draft's most freakishly athletic prospects. His USC pedigree will help lead him back to his old coach, Pete Carroll in Seattle.

At this point, Courtney Upshaw is the next in line, and he is a natural fit in New York with the Jets, who need someone opposite Calvin Pace. He may lack elite athleticism, but he is a hard-working technician who will thrive under Rex Ryan.

One of the draft's more controversial prospects is Quinton Coples, who had a down final season at UNC and has admitted to lackluster effort in 2011, though he pins it on misuse in the defense. Perception or not, teams are going to shy away from him despite his freakish combination of size, speed and talent.

Ultimately, his fall will not be a long one, as the Chargers pick him up with the 18th pick in the draft.

Maulers in the Middle

Another position that tends to rise on draft day is defensive tackle. After all, a strong defensive front is a necessary foundation to a good defense.

If the pass-rushing prospects are a bit muddled, predicting defensive tackles is just plain muddy. Sorting through the hype, any one of Dontari Poe, Fletcher Cox and Michael Brockers could be the first one off the board or fall to the bottom of the first round, depending on who you talk to.

What do the tea leaves tell me?

Of all the defensive tackle prospects, Cox has done the most for himself this draft season. The former Bulldog had a fantastic combine and followed it up with an impressive pro day. His steady rise will land him in St. Louis on draft day, as the Rams look to bolster their front four with the sixth pick.

That leaves Poe ripe for the picking for the Panthers with the ninth pick, even if he is a better fit at nose tackle. Carolina is sorely in need of help on the front four.

While the Chiefs are the next team likely to take a defensive tackle, they have already taken Reiff, leaving Brockers to fall to the Cowboys. Dallas might like Fletcher Cox—they recently brought him in for a visit—but circumstances force them to take the next best thing for them, and that is Brockers.

This is all bad news for the Denver Broncos, who will be looking for a defensive tackle in the draft, a position of need even before they lost Brodrick Bunkley. Devon Still is the logical choice for them at 25 with the top four off the board.