Prandelli's Motley Crew: Giovinco, Balotelli & the Rest of the Forward Options

Cesare Prandelli has a problem.  His two best forwards, Antonio Cassano and Giuseppe Rossi, are all but certain to miss the upcoming European Championships.

Cassano, 29, who plays for A.C. Milan, was easily the best of Italy's forwards over the qualifying stage.  But after a November match against Roma, Cassano was hospitalized and underwent surgery to correct a minor heart defect.  He returned to the field for Milan during the last round of fixtures in Serie A but has little time to round into good enough form to be considered for the tournament.  Only time will tell if he can.

Rossi, 25, who plays for Villarreal, tore his ACL in a match against Real Madrid in October and probably pushed too hard in his effort to get back in time for Poland.  After returning to training with the Yellow Submarine several weeks ago, he re-injured the same knee and will be shelved for at least another six to seven months.  He can be categorically ruled out of the the Euros.

Between them, they scored seven of the seventeen goals the Azzurri scored in the qualifying competition.  Prandelli must now decide who will replace them as his primary strikers.  The process began in February, during the friendly against the United States, and will continue in the pre-tournament friendlies against Luxembourg and Russia in May and June.

Here, we will run down the best candidates to head East with the rest of the team in June.  Some are practical locks, some are long-shots, but all should be thought of for at least a moment.

Fabio Quagliarella

Age: 29

Club: Juventus (2nd season)

International Strike Rate: .24 goals per game (6 in 25 matches)

Club Strike Rate (current club, all competitions): .35 gpg (13 in 37 matches)

About three weeks ago when I first conceptualized this article and started researching, Quagliarella looked like a serious long shot to make any noise on the national team scene this summer.  However, his last few games with Juventus—in which he looks as though he is finally fully healthy and able to let loose—have caused a few whispers that he may indeed have an outside shot to go to Poland.

One thing is certain: a fully healthy and on-form Fabio Quagliarella is one of the most dangerous forwards in Italy.

He only played for 45 minutes during the 2010 World Cup, but in those 45 minutes he scored one of the goals of the tournament, a feathery chip that gave Italy a last chance at life against Slovakia.  He had put the ball into the back of the net earlier in the half, but the goal was called back on a controversial offside call.

He took that form into the 2010-11 Serie A season, joining Juventus on loan from Napoli—where the acquisition of Edinson Cavani had made him surplus to requirements—and scoring nine goals in the first half of the season.  It looked as though he and Alessandro Del Piero would make a potent combination as Juve's front line.

But in the first game back from the winter break against Parma, Quagliarella tore his right ACL and was lost for the rest of the campaign.

As 2011-12 began with a new coach in Antonio Conte, Quagliarella saw his playing time severely reduced, as Conte preferred Alessandro Matri, Mirko Vucinic and, for some odd reason, Marco Boriello ahead of him.  He has usually seen the field only as a second-half sub, usually having only 15 to 20 minutes to make an impact.  Quagliarella was upset about this lack of playing time, and there was talk of a move away from Juve, with Lazio being given as a specific possible destination.

However, his recent run of good form seems to have allayed those concerns.  Quagliarella has recently praised Conte for not allowing him to do too much too soon on his injured knee despite his own protestation and is now set to extend his contract with the Turin giants another year to 2015.

It was thought that his lack of playing time would leave him out of Euro 2012.  But if he continues to start and score over the remaining Serie A schedule, Prandelli would be missing an opportunity if he didn't give him a run during the May/June friendlies.

Alberto Gilardino

Age: 29

Club: Genoa (1st season)

International Strike Rate: .36 gpg (17 in 47 matches)

Club Strike Rate: .27 gpg (3 in 11 matches)

Alberto Gilardino has been around for so long you forget that he's still on the right side of 30.  Unfortunately for him, he's one of the faces of Italy's embarrassing performance in the 2010 World Cup.  He looked completely flat in South Africa, never once presenting a true danger to a defense.  He hasn't scored an international goal since the Euro 2012 qualifier in September of 2010—against the Faroe Islands.  Not exactly top competition.

He hasn't been in good form at all this year, scoring only five goals all season, two for Fiorentina and three since his move to Genoa—although he has notched five assists for Genoa and his presence has allowed Rodrigo Palacio more freedom than he had before the move.

Gilardino is the Azzurri's active leading goalscorer, with 17, and he is a favorite of Prandelli from their days together in Florence.  That affection will likely get Gilardino at least a look from the Italy boss, but he is unlikely to make the roster unless he goes on an outstanding run of form in the remainder of the Serie A season.

Antonio Di Natale

Age: 34

Club: Udinese (8th season)

International Strike Rate: .28 gpg (10 in 36 matches)

Club Strike Rate: .51 gpg (144 in 284 matches)

Antonio Di Natale hasn't been seen in Savoy blue since the last game of the World Cup debacle in 2010.  The only reason I can see for that is that first number up there—his age.  34 is considered ancient in international soccer, and one of the reasons Italy crashed out in South Africa was Marcello Lippi's over-reliance on older players.  

As I've pointed out before in my article "Euro 2012 Preview: 10 Things to Know About Italy and Its Squad," Cesare Prandelli has refused to fall into the same trap and has barely called up anyone over 30 in the last year.

In the case of Di Natale, this is a mistake.  The Udinese captain is the two-time defending capocannoniere, scoring 57 goals in the last two seasons in the toughest defensive league in Europe.  This year he showed he can still make a difference against elite competition, with a great performance against Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League qualifying round.  

For a forward line that will likely be very inexperienced in Poland (only one forward on the most recent Azzurri squad had more than six caps going in), a player of Di Natale's skill and experience—he has played in both Euro 2008 and World Cup 2010—could be a major help.

Prandelli has been stubborn about his refusal to call Di Natale up but seems to have relented somewhat when it was revealed last week that he had asked Udinese to release him for the national team's April training camp.  

It was a welcome revelation, but his inclusion in the Euros may eventually hinge on his own judgement, not Prandelli's.  In the wake of the tragic on-field death of Piermario Morosini—an Udinese teammate on loan to Livorno—last week, Di Natale has openly spoken about the possibility of retiring after the season.

Only he can decide on that point, but if he makes himself available for the Euros, Prandelli simply must take him.  He is a proven difference-maker at the forward line on a team that has precious few proven ones.

Fabio Borini

Age: 21

Club: Roma (on loan from Parma)

International Strike Rate: no goals in 1 match

Club Strike Rate: .48 gpg (10 in 21 matches)

Fabio Borini is full of promise.  Signed by Chelsea out of Bologna's youth system, he never caught on with the English giants, and after a loan spell last year with Swansea, he moved back to Italy with Parma, who immediately loaned him out to Roma.

He has been one of Roma's best strikers this season, scoring 10 goals in all competitions.  He was given his first senior cap in February, and a case can be made that he performed the best out of the forwards that Prandelli put on against the United States.  

Coming on as a sub, he came the closest of any of the Italian forwards to equalizing after the Americans took the lead.  Twice he put strong shots on goal, only to be denied by a superb save by US keeper Tim Howard.

His chances may be hindered by the hamstring injury he suffered against A.C. Milan several weeks ago, which has kept him sidelined and cut into the time Prandelli can see him work.  The depth chart may work against him as well—he was only on the roster in February because Prandelli was punishing Mario Balotelli and Pablo Osvaldo after the two were sent off for their clubs the week before the US match.

Alessandro Matri

Age: 27

Club: Juventus (2nd season)

International Strike Rate: .2 gpg (1 in 5 matches)

Club Strike Rate: .43 gpg (19 in 44 matches)

Alessandro Matri is the definition of a poacher.  He doesn't often make his own goals a la Lionel Messi or Robin van Persie, relying more on the service of his teammates to get into position to score.  If the service is good, he looks magnificent.  If the service isn't there, he looks lost.

Luckily, the midfielders who will be serving him the ball if he plays in Poland will be the likes of Daniele De Rossi, Ricardo Montolivo and Juve teammate and pass-master Andrea Pirlo.  

It's surprising to me that Matri has only earned five caps for the Azzurri, but he should only get better the next few years, especially as he will almost certainly be seeing Champions League action next season, which would be the first time he plays in a European compeition and a big step in his development.

He started in the friendly against the US and didn't exactly shine.  He did have a goal called back for offside, which was a problem for the entire team early on in the game (they were caught offside nine times total; Matri had at least three of them).  A few weeks ago I figured him to be a lock for the May/June friendlies, but he has stumbled onto a run of bad form lately.

That, combined with the resurgence of Quagliarella, has pushed him to Antonio Conte's sub bench over the last month or so.  He still has time to net a few and get back into contention, but right now he seems to be on the outside looking in as far as the Euros go.

Sebastian Giovinco

Age: 25

Club: Parma (2nd season)

International Strike Rate: no goals in 7 matches

Club Strike Rate: .32 gpg (14 in 44 matches)

The Atomic Ant was easily the best forward on the field for Italy in the friendly against the US.  Like Matri, his timing was off, and he was repeatedly flagged as offside—although at least two of the calls against him were blatant mistakes by the Turkish assistant referee.

He was consistently able to get off the shoulders of the American defenders and latch on to through balls from the midfield.  His skill was on display in Parma's shock victory against Lazio last month, when Federico Marchetti had to save two or three powerful efforts, including a slaloming, half-field run that started on the left touchline just over midfield and ending at the edge of the 6-yard box, with Marchetti denying him with an impressive save.

It is almost a given that Giovinco will be playing his games somewhere other than Parma at the end of the season; the question is where.  He is on a co-ownership deal between Parma and Juventus, so any move can only happen after that is reconciled.  A return to Juve is not out of the realm of possibility.  Chelsea have been mentioned as a potential suitor, and the idea of a swap with Barcelona has also been floated, with Juventus receiving either injured striker David Villa or winger Alexis Sanchez.

Wherever he lands this summer, Prandelli has publicly praised him on numerous occasions, and it's almost a lock that he'll be wearing blue in Poland this summer.

Giampaolo Pazzini

Age: 27

Club: Inter (2nd season)

International Strike Rate: .17 gpg (4 in 24 matches)

Club Strike Rate: .35 gpg (19 in 55 matches)

Pazzini is a player who has always played well in domestic competition—he has scored 89 goals in 208 career Serie A matches—but has never really reached his potential on the international stage.

During his year-and-a-half with Sampdoria, he combined with Antonio Cassano to form one of the most effective strike partnerships in Serie A.  When the two strikers were split up to the respective Milanese outfits, Samp's form was so bad that they are currently toiling in Serie B.

He will forever be remembered as the man who scored the first goal (after 28 seconds) and first hat trick in the new Wembley Stadium in a match between the Italian and English U-21 sides.

However, he only scored two more goals in 21 more games with the Azzurrini. His road with the senior team got off to a rocky start when he was sent off in the second minute of his first start against Ireland—the fastest a player has been sent off in Italian history.

There is no denying Pazzini's talent, and during the friendly against the US he created a few dangerous moments.  He has experience, which will be in his favor when it comes to selection, especially if Di Natale decides to hang up his cleats. But he needs to bring his international performances on par with his club form if he is to ever live up to his full potential.

Pablo Daniel Osvaldo

Age: 26

Club: Roma (1st season)

Club Strike Rate: .48 gpg (11 in 23 matches)

International Strike Rate: no goals in 2 matches

The Argentinian-born Italian striker is now locked into the Italian picture after appearing in the Euro 2012 qualifying victory over Northern Ireland this past year, so there's no fear of him jumping ship to play for Argentina.  There is talent here, but there is also a concerning lack of discipline that has already landed him a place in Prandelli's doghouse.

Evidence of this can be found all the way back in 2008, when he scored a winning goal for Fiorentina against Juventus but was sent off when he removed his shirt in celebration and earned himself a second yellow card.  He seems to have caught a general bug that has run through Roma's clubhouse when it comes to bad discipline.  

He's already picked up a red card and was fined and suspended by the giallorossi for punching teammate Erik Lamela in a locker-room spat.

His sending-off caused Prandelli to leave him off the roster for the game against the US.  But if he can put the issues aside, the talent is most certainly there.  Roma's leading scorer this season, he is a lethal poacher with the ability to make a shot for himself every now and then.  

His long-term inclusion would be a positive for the Azzurri, but at the moment he looks a long shot to go to Poland.

Mario Balotelli

Age: 21

Club: Manchester City (2nd season)

International Strike Rate: .14 gpg (1 in 7 matches)

Club Strike Rate: .46 gpg (26 in 56 matches)

Ah, the mercurial one himself.  The Ghanaian-born Balotelli is undoubtedly the most naturally-talented player out of all of the men on this list.  He is also the most unpredictable.  His continued disciplinary issues with Manchester City have seriously jeopardized his career at both the club and the international level.

Since joining the club from Inter at the beginning of last season, Balotelli has been sent off three times and was given a retroactive red for a separate incident when he stomped on the head of Tottenham midfielder Scott Parker.  He was not disciplined on what should have been a straight red on a vicious tackle on Alex Song that came close to breaking the Arsenal player's leg (but was eventually sent off for two bookable offenses, both involving Bacary Sagna).

All these disciplinary issues have caused Prandelli to drop Super Mario from his immediate plans.  Balotelli is still 21 years old, so there is obviously time for him to mature as a person.  

But if he wants a future in major soccer on both the club and international level, he needs to do so fast.

We've all seen the goals Balotelli has scored over the last few years for Inter and Man City.  He is a sublime talent, and if on-field performance and talent were the only factors in selection, he would be an automatic every time the Azzurri took the field.

Unfortunately for him—and for Italian fans—more goes into it than that.  At the international level, going down to 10 men for any length of time is a massive disadvantage, and in his current state Balotelli is a red card waiting to happen every time he steps on the field.

His future national team is not an immediate one, and it may never happen if he continues acting the way he has been with Man City.  Only time will tell whether this supremely talented young man will play a major part for his country in the future.

Who Will Go?

So who will Prandelli take to Poland with him in June?

Assuming Prandelli takes five forwards to Euro 2012, I think the locks are Giovinco and Pazzini.  As long as he is still playing soccer, I predict Prandelli will do the smart thing and call on Di Natale as well.  

From here I'll take a shot in the dark and say that Quagliarella's dark-horse candidacy comes through and that he'll show enough form to go, and that Prandelli will try to catch lightning in a bottle and bring Cassano along.  

Should Cassano be truly unable to go, I think it would be Osvaldo before anyone else.

Borini will have time to make his case, but his time is in the future.  Gilardino's is past, and Matri is just not playing enough right now to merit consideration.  Balotelli can never be categorically ruled out, but I think the only way he goes is if a rash of injuries hit and Prandelli has no other choice.