MLB Predictions 2012: Predicting All 30 Teams' First Pitcher to 10 Wins

In the past couple of years, the win has become one of the most confusing stats in all of baseball.

In some cases, a pitcher that has a lot of wins is the streak-stopping ace that can put a team on his back in case of emergency.

In other cases, the pitcher with the most wins is the bullpen pitcher who finds himself backing into wins after blowing a hold or having the most luck when it comes to late comebacks.

Even voters for the Cy Young award have found themselves torn when it comes to the value of the win. In the past three years, there have been two pitchers who have found themselves on losing teams and yet won the Cy Young because of their eye-popping stats outside of wins.

Still, fans are enamored with the number of wins and the pitcher who usually reaches 20 will usually be the first to reach 10. The race is more competitive on losing teams, but it's always interesting to see who hits that plateau first.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ian Kennedy

In 2011, Ian Kennedy had the breakout season that scouts thought he would eventually have after being a top prospect in the New York Yankees organization.

Kennedy went 21-4 with a 2.88 earned run average for the Diamondbacks in 2011. Kennedy lead the team to a shocking National League West championship and pitched well in the Diamondbacks' five-game loss to the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS.

Kennedy should continue to grow as he's only 27 years old and should represent the Diamondbacks for years to come. That being said, he's a pretty safe bet to not only be the first to win 10 games for the Diamondbacks, but contend for the NL Cy Young Award as well.

Atlanta Braves: Tommy Hanson

While I'm not high on the Atlanta Braves as a whole, I do think that Tommy Hanson has recovered from shoulder problems that hampered him throughout the later half of 2011 and will be a better pitcher in 2012.

Hanson went 11-7 with a 3.60 ERA in 2011, but threw just 130.0 innings because of said shoulder. The Braves seem to think that issue has cleared up, and beside a concussion sustained in a car accident, Hanson should be ready to go in 2012.

The Braves might be the team that finishes toward the bottom half of the NL East standings, but I'm thinking that Hanson is more of the 11-4 phenom we saw in 2009 rather than what we've seen in the rest of his career.

Baltimore Orioles: Jake Arrieta

When forecasting pitchers to 10 wins, things get tough when we're talking about the Baltimore Orioles.

The de facto selection would be Jake Arrieta, who showed a couple flashes of brilliance in 2011, but still wound up with a 5.05 ERA. However, Arrieta was one of two Oriole pitchers to win 10 games last season along with Zack Britton.

Both seem like they have an equal chance to be the first pitcher to 10 wins for the Orioles, but I'm assuming they won't hit that mark until late in the 2012 season.

Boston Red Sox: Jon Lester

While the Red Sox had several problems that doomed them toward the end of the 2011 season, they still have some quality pitchers on their hands.

Out of the race for the Sox, I think that Jon Lester will be the first to 10 wins. Over the past four seasons, Lester has won at least 15 games for the Red Sox and has been the one pitcher who has fit the profile of an ace.

Again, there are a couple candidates, and some people may scream that I didn't put Beckett's name down. But Lester still has the ability to get better and figures to be the teams Opening Day starter. Those extra starts should give Lester the advantage to hit 10 before Beckett does.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza

In the Cubs rebuilding efforts this past winter, it was long assumed that Matt Garza would not be part of the team. As we flash forward to March, Garza could be the Cubs best pitcher.

Perhaps winning 10 games would be nothing more than a raise in his value, but Garza has the stuff to compete in the NL Central. Last year alone, Garza went 10-10 with a 3.32 ERA in his first season with the Cubs.

The Cubs do not figure to be a very good team this year, so wins could be hard to come by for any Cubs pitcher. But with Garza's fastball and competitiveness, he should be the first pitcher to win 10.

Chicago White Sox: John Danks

This spot has been occupied with Mark Buehrle for years, but after the long-time ace of the Chicago White Sox left for the Miami Marlins, someone will have to step up.

That could be John Danks, who with the exception of his rookie season and last year, has hit 10 wins in every season (and averaged about 13 during those three seasons).

Danks will be forced up a spot in the rotation with the departure of Buehrle and it's conceivable that Danks will take advantage of the opportunity.

Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Cueto

Many people believe that Mat Latos will be the ace of the Cincinnati Reds after he was acquired for several top-level prospects from the San Diego Padres last winter. However, the case can be made that the Reds had their ace all along.

If it weren't for a shoulder injury, Johnny Cueto would have had one of the lowest ERAs in the National League at 2.31.

Cueto's presence was missed as the Reds went from NL Central champions to afterthought in 2011. With Latos having to adjust to a hitter-friendly ballpark in Cincinnati, he'll have to have an adjustment which gives the edge to Johnny Cueto.

Cleveland Indians: Justin Masterson

As the driver of the Justin Masterson bandwagon, I don't just think that Justin Masterson will be the first to win 10 games for the Cleveland Indians this season. I also think that he'll have a better year than Ubaldo Jimenez and compete for the American League Cy Young Award.

Masterson has improved between each of his three seasons as a starter with the Indians. Last season, Masterson registered career-highs in almost every category as he went 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA. It was a season in which he doubled his wins from 2010 and lowered his ERA by almost a run and a half.

Masterson's competition figures to be Jimenez who has continued to look a shell of his 2010 form when he was drawing comparisons to Bob Gibson. Again, I'm really high on Masterson and think that he takes the reins that were handed to Jimenez and will earn his way to being the ace of the Indians staff.

Colorado Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin

After the trade of the previously mentioned Jimenez, the Rockies find themselves building their starting rotation. This means that they're thin on candidates with experience that can win 10 games.

The last man standing is Jhoulys Chacin who has been inconsistent for the Rockies over his career, but he's the best pitcher they have. Chacin's ERA has been in the mid-three range during his three-year career. Chacin is also 24 years old so there's room for improvement as well.

Somebody like Drew Pomeranz, who was acquired in the Jimenez trade, could challenge Chacin. Yet, I can't see any of the Rockies young guns coming up and challenging Chacin in the race to 10 wins.

Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander has to be one of the easiest names to write in on this list as he established himself as the most dominant pitcher in baseball in 2011.

Verlander went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA in 2011 and easily claimed both the AL Cy Young Award along with the AL Most Valuable Player.

The only thing that could derail Verlander's dominance would be an injury as even if he does have a drop-off, the Tiger offense is sure to have his back with the addition of Prince Fielder. Simply put, Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris

A bad team makes things difficult when a pitcher wants to win games. That could be said for Bud Norris.

The Astros are continuing to rebuild as the team will move to the American League in 2013. For now, the team needs to focus on getting pieces that can help them compete when they move to what some think is the toughest league in MLB.

Bud Norris can be one of those pieces, and as of right now, he's all the Astros have. It may be considered a long shot because Norris has never won 10 games in his career, but the Astros will lean on him for what could be a very long final season in the National League.

Kansas City Royals: Bruce Chen

A long time journey man, it seems like Bruce Chen has finally found a home in Kansas City. By no means is Chen the ace of the Royals, but he's the most solid pitcher they have.

Chen has won 12 games in each of the last two seasons for the Royals and has performed admirably over the past couple of seasons filling a slot in the Royals rotation. With Chen turning 35 later this summer, there could be concern that father time will catch up to him.

However, Chen has a Buerhle-like style and the crafty lefty could continue his recent consistency by winning 10 games before anyone else on the Royals.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Jared Weaver

Jared Weaver has the chance to become 2012's version of Justin Verlander. In clarification, that would mean that a pitcher who has been regarded as really good becomes an unstoppable force.

Weaver had one of his best seasons as a professional in 2011 as he went 18-8 with a career-low 2.41 ERA. Weaver signed a big contract with the Angels later in the season, and he's moving forward as the ace of the team.

Weaver should have a little bit more run support in 2011 as the Angels add Albert Pujols into their lineup. Weaver will have the opportunities to win games and should pick up where he left off for 2012.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw

As the defending NL Cy Young Award winner, Clayton Kershaw has the potential to have a season even bigger than his 2011 campaign.

Kershaw fended off Ian Kennedy for the award posting eye-popping numbers of 21-5 with a 2.88 ERA. Kershaw also lead the league last season with 248 strikeouts in 233.1 innings pitched.

As dominant as Justin Verlander was in the American League, Kershaw may have matched him blow-for-blow in the National League.

What makes this even more impressive was that, aside from Matt Kemp, the Dodgers struggled on the field. This meant that Kershaw racked up wins on a bad team, which is always an impressive feat.

Hitters will try to adjust to Kershaw in 2012, but the reality is that Kershaw will wind up getting his 10 wins very quickly this season.

Miami Marlins: Mark Buehrle

The Marlins' one question mark heading into the season is pitching. It's not because the Marlins don't have effective pitchers, but the ones they do have seem to have question marks surrounding them.

Josh Johnson should be considered the ace of the staff, but he's had several injury problems. Johnson is very good when he's healthy, but it's been a while since he's been 100 percent healthy.

The Marlins also have Ricky Nolasco, but his pitch-to-contact style will be tested with the transition of Hanley Ramirez to third base.

That's why the Marlins' acquisition of Mark Buehrle was so important over the offseason. Buehrle is a consistent pitcher who has never had an issue with injury or performance. When all is said and done, Buehrle will have between 10-15 wins for the Marlins and will be an anchor for their rotation.

Milwaukee Brewers: Yovani Gallardo

One year after winning a career-high 17 games for the Milwaukee Brewers last season, Yovani Gallardo figures to improve upon that total as he leads the Crew into the post-Prince era.

Gallardo had a phenomenal NLDS against the Arizona Diamondbacks as he went 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings to lead the Brewers into their first NLDS in franchise history. A performance like that is something that builds confidence and that's something that Gallardo has had over the past three seasons.

Gallardo has hit double-digit wins and at age 26, he's emerging into the team's ace as he heads into the prime of his career. The Brewers have some quality pitching on their staff, but Gallardo is a cut above the rest.

Minnesota Twins: Francisco Liriano

Francisco Liriano has to be one of the most maddening pitchers to predict in all of baseball, but in 2012 he should be the Minnesota Twins' first pitchers to 10 wins.

The first reason is Liriano's stuff. He has some of the best pitches in baseball, but the problem has been Liriano's willingness to trust it at times. In 2011, it seemed there were many times where Liriano would get flustered and rely solely on his slider.

That could be because Liriano was not healthy in 2011. Liriano spent a little bit of time on the disabled list and battled shoulder issues coming out of spring training.

This spring, Liriano has looked like a different pitcher that doesn't have anything holding him back, and that should be good news for the Twins, who are desperate for an ace. Liriano should win 10, and then tack on a hand full more in 2012.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey

When the New York Mets made the Johan Santana trade prior to the 2009 season, they figured that it would be Santana occupying this slide for many seasons to come. Instead, Santana has been hampered by a shoulder injury and has not been able to pitch for the franchise since late in the 2010 season.

That meant that other pitchers on the Mets staff have had to step up, and there's been mixed results. The one guy who could fill that void is Mike Pelfrey.

There are a lot of Mets fans who are high on Jonathon Niese, but Pelfrey already has three 10-win seasons which are three more than Niese has registered in his career.

Pelfrey isn't the most consistent starter on the Mets staff, but they'll need him in order to win some games in 2012.

New York Yankees: CC Sabathia

The New York Yankees have a pretty inexperienced rotation, so it could be that some of the young guns could have slumps in their second season in the major leagues. With that logic, the choice narrows down to either CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, or the returning Andy Pettite.

Narrowing it down further, Kuroda will have to adjust to the American League after coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers. So that leaves Pettite and Sabathia.

Despite the opening month of the season (Mar/Apr) being Sabathia's worst month statistically, I have to say that he'll have the edge over Pettite because of the one-year retirement Pettite took. While I don't believe he'll be ready, he's scheduled to start throwing BP to hitters on March 30.

Any way you put it, BP is not pitching in a Major League Baseball game. CC Sabathia will be the strongest candidate to reach 10 wins first.

Oakland Athletics: Brandon McCarthy

The Oakland Athletics lost two of their top starting pitchers last winter, so it will fall on Brandon McCarthy to win games and win games quickly for the Oakland Athletics in 2012.

While his 9-9 record from 2011 may not grab your attention, his 3.32 ERA is respectable enough to suggest he can win some games for the Athletics.

His performance may not be the problem, but the Athletics lineup which has been ranked toward the bottom of baseball in runs scored the past couple of seasons may be the thing that prevents him from winning 10 games before anybody else in Oakland.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cliff Lee

When you're crammed in between four other aces, it's hard to get recognized for attention sometimes. That's what Cliff Lee has experienced in Philadelphia since he returned prior to the 2011 season.

Lee still is one of the best pitchers in baseball as he posted a 17-8 record with a 2.40 ERA with the Phillies last season. However, the Phillies also have this Roy Halladay guy who is pretty good.

There have been concerns about Halladay's performance and velocity in spring training, so logically Lee would be the one to pick up any slack (if Halladay really is struggling come April) that a less-than-perfect Halladay would leave behind.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton

The Pirates have tabbed Erik Bedard as their Opening Day starter, but with his injury history it's best to shy away from him for this article. So, who else on the Pirates could win 10 games? Let's go with the pitcher that had the hottest start to the Pirates season in 2011, Charlie Morton.

Morton changed his delivery prior to the season to emulate Roy Halladay. While Morton didn't exactly get Halladay results from the change, he got off to a pretty good start. Between April and May, Morton went 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA for the Pirates and could have been considered their best pitcher.

The wheels did come off for Morton for the remainder of the season, but sometimes it's the pitcher who gets off to the fastest start that will win 10 games for their club. With the top pitching talent still in the minors for Pittsburgh, Morton could be the winner if he gets off to a similar start.

San Diego Padres: Edinson Volquez

Ever since Volquez burst onto the scene in 2008 with a 17-6 record for the Cincinnati Reds, his career has taken a slow decline. Volquez had to undergo Tommy John surgery in 2009 and hasn't regained that form since, but that's where a change in scenery could help the right-hander.

Volquez moves from one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball at Petco Park. It's possible that the pressure of being a young phenom got to Volquez a little bit and that pressure could have snowballed into his departure from the Reds.

The Padres could be just what the doctor ordered for Volquez, and if he performs well San Diego could have added another valuable piece in the Mat Latos deal.

San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum

There were times where the San Francisco Giants' meager offense made wins difficult to come by for Tim Lincecum. However, that didn't stop the two-time Cy Young Award winner from pitching like a machine.

Some people actually thought Lincecum had a down year in 2011, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Yes, he went 13-14 but his ERA was 2.74. That mark was good enough for the second-lowest total of his career.

If the Giants had any sort of offense, Lincecum would have had a shot to win 20 games. It should be a little bit better this season for The Freak as Buster Posey will return to the lineup and hopefully give the Giants enough punch to get Lincecum to 10 wins very quickly.

Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez

Speaking of anemic lineups, the Seattle Mariners had a tough time getting wins for Felix Hernandez as well. There really isn't much to say here other than there's no doubt that King Felix is the Mariners' best pitcher.

Hernandez did post a 3.47 ERA which was the second highest of his career last season, but he also won 14 games on a team that struggled to score runs. That makes it seem like either Hernandez was really on or really off last season.

The Mariners could trade Felix at the trade deadline if they get an offer they can't refuse, but I don't see that happening. Hernandez wants to stay in Seattle, so I think both parties will continue amicably and Felix will get his 10 wins before anybody else in the Mariner rotation.

St. Louis Cardinals: Jaime Garcia

Either Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter would be the choice for the St. Louis Cardinals if they were completely healthy. However, both pitchers are dealing with injury issues already as Carpenter has a bulging disc in his neck while Wainwright is in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

That leaves an unimpressive list of Cardinal starters to win 10 games first, but I believe the best one is Jaime Garcia. Garcia has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past two seasons as he's been able to win double-digit games with a solid ERA over the past two seasons.

The Cardinals will need someone to get off to a fast start if the injury concerns to their two best pitchers become more than concerns, and Garcia could be the pitcher to do it.

Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Moore

As the top prospect in baseball, Matt Moore will have to deal with some lofty expectations heading into the 2012 season. One of them is that he'll get to 10 wins before either James Shields or David Price will.

It seems like Price and Shields have both lacked consistency over the past couple of seasons, and while either pitcher could easily rip off a string of 10 wins to start the season, I'm going to go with the youthful potential of Moore.

Remember, Moore only pitched 19.1 innings between the regular and postseason in 2011. This means that opponents haven't seen enough of him either in person or on tape to make adjustments.

The combination of the two could lead to Moore getting off to a fast start and beating his very good competition to 10 wins.

Texas Rangers: Neftali Feliz

Despite having recent shoulder issues, the expectation is that Neftali Feliz will make the transition from All-Star closer to a member of the Rangers starting rotation in 2012. The scary thing is that it might not be as big of a transition as you think.

Being a starter is not new to Feliz, as in 2008 Feliz started 27 games in the Rangers system going a combined 10-6 with a 2.69 ERA. In other words, it's possible he could be just as good in the rotation as he is in the bullpen.

The real question will be whether Feliz will be able to replace C.J. Wilson, who just had two very productive seasons in the Rangers rotation after making the same transition Feliz is going to make. If Feliz can make the transition seamlessly, the Rangers won't skip a beat.

Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero

Similar to Justin Masterson, Ricky Romero has improved every season he has pitched for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The 27-year-old lefty will look to build off a career season where he registered an ERA under three along with 15 wins. The feat is even more impressive when you consider that Romero put up these numbers in the crowded American League East.

Romero has looked awesome in spring training and the momentum should continue to the regular season where the Blue Jays will look to make a return to the playoffs.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

After all the hype, we'll finally get to see a full season of Stephen Strasburg in 2012. To say the least, this should be fun.

The Nationals phenom got off to a roaring start in 2010 before having to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. For most pitchers, it takes two seasons to regain their form. For Stephen Strasburg, it took exactly one year.

Strasburg returned with the Nationals at the end of the 2011 season and started putting up video-game numbers again going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in five starts.

It will be interesting to see what adjustments the rest of the National League makes as Strasburg piles up the innings (or how long of a leash the Nationals are going to give him after Tommy John surgery).

I feel Strasburg is going to put up a monster season and remind us why he's gathered so much attention over the past couple of seasons.