NCAA Tournament 2012: Bold Predictions for Elite 8
They don't call it March "Madness" for nothing. The first day of Sweet 16 matchups was half "chalk" and half upsets, but what did you expect?
Tonight's matchups should be no different, as No. 1 seeds Kentucky and North Carolina look to get past upset-minded Indiana and Ohio (this year's Cinderella), while highly-ranked Big 12 powerhouses Baylor and Kansas try to get past Xavier and North Carolina State (one of the "hottest" teams still in the tournament).
This article is all about predictions for the Elite 8, but one thing is for sure—we at least know four teams (and two matchups) that will be participating.
In the East region, top-seeded Syracuse will try to fend off No. 2 seed Ohio State in what is likely to be one of the best matchups of the entire tournament.
The West region looks a little bit different—all the chalk is gone—and what we're left with is an exciting matchup of fast guards in Louisville and Florida.
While the rest of the Elite Eight remains a mystery for now, I can still try to predict what is likely to go down.
Ohio State vs. Syracuse Is Going to Be Crazy
1 of 3After Syracuse barely scraped by in the "second round" against UNC-Asheville, their future in the NCAA tournament looked bleak. However, an impressive third-round performance against Kansas State propelled the Orange into their toughest competition of the tournament so far.
It was literally down to the wire, but Syracuse managed to get by a balanced Wisconsin team to earn a spot in the Elite Eight. Unfortunately, they'll have to take on an Ohio State squad that appears to be in sync and playing at a very high level.
Ohio State, who is coming off an impressive 15-point victory over Cincinnati, is led by their sophomore power forward Jared Sullinger. Sullinger has played well all season, but he has really turned it on as of late. He posted 23 points and 11 rebounds against the Bearcats.
I'd say Sullinger is the key to Ohio State's potential victory against Syracuse, but that's not the case. Syracuse's infamous zone defense forces teams to rely on jump shots. Luckily, Ohio State is more than capable of knocking those down.
Shooting guard William Buford is going to have to step his game up after a lowly four-point outing against Cincinnati, but the Buckeyes have three other starters in Aaron Craft, Lenzelle Smith Jr. and Deshaun Thomas that are deadly jump shooters.
Syracuse will be playing another game without their starting center (and NBA prospect) Fab Melo. Once again, they will need all their players to step up and make big contributions.
Senior small forward Kris Joseph has been off thus far, falling under his season average of 14 points per game in all three NCAA tournament games. Joseph will need to bring more than his veteran leadership to the table if the Orange want to beat Ohio State.
This is likely to be the closest Elite Eight matchup, and depending on which team can get hot and make a run, this game could really keep going back and forth until the end.
My prediction is that Ohio State will pull out the victory in a hard-fought, close battle. They're just playing better than Syracuse right now.
The Midwest Region Won't Be Chalk
2 of 3Tonight's Midwest region matchups are primed and ready for an upset, but will that actually happen?
Top-seeded North Carolina is facing off against this year's Cinderella squad—the Ohio Bobcats—and they will likely be without starting point guard Kendall Marshall.
If this weren't the NCAA tournament, I wouldn't even be worried about North Carolina beating Ohio without Marshall, but Ohio is playing great basketball right now after pulling off upsets over both Michigan and South Florida.
Unfortunately, while I am slightly worried about this being a potential upset, North Carolina should still pull out the win due to superior talent across the board. I'm just not even sure Ohio can match up defensively with North Carolina—like, at all.
The Bobcats run a three-guard/two-forward set, where as North Carolina runs a more typical two-guard/three-forward set.
The Bobcats' tallest starter, Ivo Baltic, measures in at 6'8"—North Carolina's Tyler Zeller has a solid four inches on Baltic, John Henson has two to three inches on him, and small forward Harrison Barnes is 6'8" himself!
Barnes is athletic enough to guard Ohio's 6'3" shooting guard Walter Offutt (who carried the Bobcats in their win over South Florida), but Offutt certainly won't be able to guard Barnes. The Bobcats will have to run a zone, and North Carolina will shoot their way to an easy victory—even without Marshall.
So that only leaves one game for an upset to be had: No. 2 seed Kansas versus 11th-seeded North Carolina State. This should be a very close game, and while Kansas power forward Thomas Robinson may be the best player on the court, North Carolina State's combo forward C.J. Leslie is going to give him a run for his money.
The Wolfpack are just too hot right now to bet against, and unlike Ohio, they actually have good-sized athletes on their roster that can match up to the big boys. Due to their defensive pressure, North Carolina State was able to force Georgetown into a number of bad shots—that ultimately won them the game.
However, they're going to have to shoot better than 37 percent (what they shot against Georgetown) to beat the Jayhawks.
Other than Syracuse against Ohio State, this might be the most exciting game to watch in the tournament.
Kentucky, Kentucky, Kentucky
3 of 3Here's a quick prediction of how the West region's Elite Eight matchup of Louisville versus Florida is going to play out:
- There will be at least 50 three-pointers taken in the game, but the number is even more likely to be around 60.
- The game will be fast-paced, as Louisville's Peyton Siva and Florida's Kenny Boynton will run every chance they get.
- Louisville will play superior defense, but Florida will hit more shots (even if they're better contested) and will wind up winning a close game.
- Florida will initially celebrate their victory, but then crawl into a state of depression after they realize they have to take on Kentucky in the Final Four.
I'm aware that Kentucky still has to get their revenge on Indiana tonight, but the Wildcats are playing better than anybody in the country right now. They have so much talent at every position that it's almost sickening to watch.
It's unfair to the others!
I think Indiana will play hard and give Kentucky a good game, but a solid second-half performance from the Wildcats will turn into a near-10-point victory. They will then go on to battle the winner of the Xavier/Baylor matchup, and I'm going to go ahead and say sayonara to Tu Holloway and his Musketeers, as the Bears will emerge victorious.
A Kentucky versus Baylor Elite Eight matchup is going to be great considering all the NBA-level talent that will be on the floor, but, once again, Kentucky has the upper hand. While many were concerned with Kentucky's perimeter defense going into their third-round matchup with Iowa State, a 16-point victory quickly put that to rest.
The Wildcats held the Cyclones to 13.6 percent from deep (3-of-22), and they will look to do the same to Baylor. Baylor will have to play big inside with Perry Jones III, Quincy Miller and Quincy Acy to give the Bears a chance.
In the end, though, Kentucky will be too much.
Kentucky will then go on to over power Florida with their size and strength and head to the national championship. This is Kentucky's year—nobody is stopping them.

.png)




.jpg)


