NCAA Tournament 2012: How March Madness Has Ruined Bracket Picks

I feel like I am experiencing March Madness deja vu from last year. President Obama is off to a hot start, and the vast majority of sharks are struggling compared to most years. That is because President Obama is the king of chalk, while chalk is poisonous to sharks.

To put it quite simply, almost all of the experts are struggling. You can see my predictions for this year here.

I explained how you can expect to land in the top-10 percent of your pool if you hit 75 percent of your picks every round and pick the champion. Most years, I accomplish this or come darn close.

This year, I have not hit my goals so far, but I am lurking in the top-25 percent. I failed to hit 75 percent in either round. Before you line up to mock me, take this into consideration:

Only 8.9 percent of the sharks won at least 75 percent of their first-round games. Only 2.8 percent of the sharks won at least 75 percent of their second-round games. Less than one percent of the sharks won at least 75 percent in both rounds. That is brutal.

The Round of 64 (or "second round" because of the inception of the "First Four") was the maddest March opening round that I can ever remember. Two No. 15 seeds, a No. 13 seed, two No. 12 seeds and two No. 11 seeds won. Read that again.

In the history of March Madness, only four No. 15 seeds had ever won a game heading into this year. Then we get two more this year alone. Unreal.

My favorite upset pick this year in the first round was Long Beach State. It was easily the most popular No. 12 seed upset pick—and the second most popular upset pick after No. 11 seed North Carolina State (an upset in seed only; they were the favorite in Las Vegas).

Long Beach State played like garbage (star player Casper Ware shot 5-of-19), and yet it was a one-possession game with under 30 seconds to play. If Long Beach State mustered even a mediocre performance, they would have blown out New Mexico.

We then followed that up with the chalk-heavy Round of 32. It was like the complete reverse of last year, which was chalk-saturated in the first round and crazy in the second round and beyond.

Only five non-chalk picks won in the second round. I called three of them, including Cincinnati, Florida and North Carolina State. I missed on Xavier (although I did call them winning in the second round) and Ohio (whom I whiffed on completely). If you called Xavier and Ohio in the Sweet 16, you are either Nostradamus, lucky or a State of Ohio homer.

Looking ahead, my Final Four—and for that matter, most people's Final Four picks—look like they could be pretty good. I still have three of my four teams left.

I missed on dark horse Murray State. I thought the West Region would be wide open and upset-heavy. In contrast, it has been ultra-chalky. The Midwest Region is the one that ended up topsy-turvy. Four double-digit seeds won in the second round, with two of those advancing to the third round as well.

Missouri, Duke, Florida State and Vanderbilt all took a bite out of shark's brackets by not reaching the Final Four. I did not like any of those team's chances this year. In fact, I had Missouri and Florida State losing in the third round; Missouri did not even make it that far.

Kentucky was the most popular pick to win it all this year by the sharks. They were the prohibitive favorite heading into March Madness. I picked them, too, as I thought it would be foolish to bet against them. Their odds look better than ever after North Carolina's star PG Kendall Marshall broke his wrist against Creighton.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of March Madness pans out. If you have a question about how a particular team fared with the sharks, let me know.