Chicago Blackhawks Reach Midterm: What Does the Second Half Hold?

This site’s Blackhawks Community is no exception to this rule. My fellow Creatures Tab Bamford (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/111084-chicago-blackhawks-mid-season-awards) and William Donahue (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/111018-chicago-blackhawks-midseason-awards/page/2) have both contributed solid analysis of the first half through their well-written awards articles, and I’m sure many others will follow.

I, however, plan to take a different track.

Instead of a time of reflection, I believe that the halfway point of the season should be a time to look ahead instead, especially for a team like the Blackhawks. With a record of 24-10-7, the Hawks are sitting pretty in the Western Conference, on pace to rack up 110 points and hopefully have home-ice advantage in a first round playoff series.

In addition, they have gotten three players voted into the All-Star Game, and others who have been given special distinction as underrated by national beat writers (Pierre LeBrun of espn.com submitted this piece: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3832265&name=lebrun_pierre).

Let me also take a minute of self-promotion by saying that I wrote about this player being underrated in an article last year (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/80772-duncan-keiths-case-to-be-most-underrated-blackhawk).

Writer’s Note: If there was a tag for self-flagellating on this site, it totally would have to be clicked after that.

Aside from my loathsome foray into promoting my own credentials as a hockey savant, I would like to get back to the actual point of this article. Instead of merely looking back on all the Blackhawks have accomplished, this article will look forward to the rest of the season, the playoffs, and perhaps beyond.

In the immediate future, the Blackhawks will encounter some pretty hefty obstacles. After a stretch where their schedule is pretty friendly (playing three of their final four games before the break at home), things will get decidedly tougher in the weeks after the All-Star Game in Montreal.

Of the Blackhawks’ eight games following the exhibition, all of them will be on the road. These games include trips to Western Conference contenders Anaheim, San Jose, Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver, and also includes games against the Blues, Kings, and Thrashers.

After this horrendous road trip, the Hawks will find their way back to the United Center to face the Stars, but then go right back out on the road for three more games. Doing the math, that makes 11 of their first 12 games road games coming out of the break.

That is a brutal slate for a team that hasn’t exactly been lights out away from West Madison this season (10-8-3), and it should provide an early precursor for what is to come the rest of the way.

I believe strongly that if the Blackhawks can take half of the available points in these road games, they will have a phenomenal chance to host a first-round playoff series as the fourth seed in the Western Conference. Getting 11 of the 22 available points in these games would give them a solid total heading into a much easier portion of their schedule, and would go a long way toward solidifying their position among the Western elite.

Looking ahead past this grueling stretch, the Blackhawks have it comparatively easy. After their game against the Stars on Feb. 21, the Blackhawks do not have to travel across the Mississippi River for the final two months of the season. That is a huge advantage for a young team, as this will be the time of year when fatigue will come into play in a big way.

In addition to the easier travel burden, the Blackhawks will not have a road trip longer than two games after this stretch. This brings into play their excellent home record, as the packed United Center has become the place where their losing streaks go to die.

While their schedule does lighten up considerably on the road after this stretch, the teams they will face at home are also slightly less formidable. They will face the Penguins at home in late February, and unless the Pens can swing a trade for Ilya Kovalchuk before then, it seems unlikely that they will be fully out of their tailspin by then.

This would lead us into March, where the Blackhawks will really need to make hay in order to obtain prime playoff positioning. Of the team’s 15 games in the month, 11 of them will be at home.

Their road games are daunting in this month (Boston, New Jersey, Columbus, and Montreal), but they are for the most part well spaced out, with the Bruins and Habs coming at the beginning and end of the month, and a quick two-game jaunt taking care of the Devils and Jackets.

Outside of these road tests, the Hawks will enjoy using home ice advantage against teams like Colorado, Los Angeles (twice), the Islanders, and the Oilers. They also have a couple of tough match-ups against the Sharks, Devils, and Hurricanes on their slate for that month. However, the home ice advantage should play a huge role in determining their success in them.

The real crucible will come in April for these Blackhawks. Following a month where only two of their 15 games will be against division foes (both against Columbus), the Blackhawks will play nothing but divisional games for their final seven contests. Judging by their record against the division this season (an anemic 3-3-5), this will be a make or break time for the team.

The most important games will, of course, be the final two, played on the Saturday and Sunday of the final weekend against the arch-rival Red Wings. This home and home could be for the division title, or more likely just for seeding, but it will be the Blackhawks’ final chance to establish some good momentum going into the post-season.

Now that the schedule has been fully dissected and analyzed, it is time to make my predictions for the final half of the season. Some of these are very rational, and well thought out predictions, but a couple are more of screwball ideas that are floating around in my head. Take them all, and please be kind if most or all of them don’t come true.

Prediction No. 1: The Blackhawks will get home-ice advantage in the first round

The key to this prediction is in its vagueness. The team figures to at least make the playoffs, and I think that with a solid second half (which they are more than capable of having), they will reap the rewards of their hard work and nab either the second or fourth seed. Of course, to overtake the vaunted Red Wings would require Detroit to relinquish an 11-point lead, but anything is possible.

Prediction No. 2: Either Martin Havlat, Brent Sopel, or Nikolai Khabibulin will be gone by the trade deadline

The Blackhawks need some payroll flexibility to remain competitive for the rest of this season and the next, and with that consideration in mind, I think they will trade one of these three salary eaters to make room. The most obvious choice is Sopel, but I could also see Havlat or Khabby packing their bags. Several teams have maintained an interest in Marty, and I’m sure that Khabibulin wouldn’t go un-coveted either. Speaking of those three:

Prediction No. 3: The Blackhawks will not re-sign Martin Havlat or Nikolai Khabibulin

They will instead focus on locking up unrestricted free agents Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, and Kris Versteeg. They will use Versteeg to fill the void left by Marty, and Corey Crawford (another RFA) or Antti Niemi will succeed Khabby.

Prediction No. 4: The most important player to a Blackhawks playoff run will be Cristobal Huet

While it is probably trendier to go with a guy like Toews or Sharp, the play of Huet will ultimately determine this team’s destiny.

Will he be the Huet of last year with Washington, where he dominated everyone and led them from the doghouse to the playoffs in a matter of weeks? Or will he be the Cristobal that started off this season as a maddeningly inconsistent netminder who made people throughout Chicago curse the existence of French Canadian hockey players?

Time will ultimately tell.

Prediction No. 5: The Blackhawks will finish the season by beating Detroit in their last two games.

This prediction is brazen, reckless, and most likely foolhardy, but I believe that the tenacity with which the Hawks play hockey will be on full display, and the team will go into the post-season with wins in both contests against the Wings to give themselves a 2-2-2 record on the year against their arch-rivals from the Motor City.

It should be a fun second half of this season, and hopefully when April rolls around, we, as a community, will all be writing about how great it was, and how much we are looking forward to the best two months of the year: the Stanley Cup playoffs.