NFL Draft 2012: 8 Prospects Whose Stock Has Risen During Free Agency
NFL draft fans should continue holding on tightly to their proverbial seats. Following a week of furious activity to commence the NFL free-agency period, there has been a substantial impact on the projected first round.
There is likely to be further significant effect, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, based on the numerous quality front-seven defenders that remain unsigned on the market as of this writing.
Acquisitions of key veteran free agents, signaled both by the quality of the players as well as the financial commitment made to them, usually result in a pendulum effect on the first-round draft stock of multiple prospects.
This swinging multitude occurs because not only does a premier player contract at one position affect the top prospects at that same spot on the field, potentially driving their corresponding value up or down based on demand and team fit, but it can also maneuver the signing team to subsequently target a player at an entirely different position of need.
Further muddying these waters of projection are teams that subscribe to the draft philosophy of taking the best perceived player on its board regardless of position or in-house need. Teams ahead of them in the order that pass on certain positional prospects, based on an addition in free agency, create a trickle-down effect.
Defensive tackle Nick Fairley out of Auburn University a year ago, falling to the Detroit Lions at 13, and more famously Aaron Rodgers back in 2005, going as late as 24th to the Green Bay Packers are recent examples of this draft-day subplot.
This slideshow takes a look at eight very likely day-one players that have possibly had their fates solidified, if not enhanced, on April 26 due to recent free-agent transactions.
Offensive Tackles Riley Reiff and Jonathan Martin
1 of 5Prospects
Riley Reiff, offensive tackle, University of Iowa, 6'6", 315 lbs., redshirt junior, DOB: 12/1/1988
Jonathan Martin, offensive tackle, Stanford University, 6'5.5", 315 lbs., redshirt junior, DOB: 8/19/1989
Impacting free-agent signings
Chicago Bears trading for wide receiver Brandon Marshall from the Miami Dolphins.
The rub
The first three moves—Backus and Gaither re-signing with their respective incumbent clubs and Winston becoming a Chief following his cap casualty in Houston—served to eliminate arguably the top three bookends from the market. This drives up the intrinsic value of both Reiff and Martin based on the remaining demand for potential starting-caliber tackles.
Five clubs with a primary need at this position are the St. Louis Rams (drafting sixth), Miami Dolphins (eighth), Buffalo Bills (10th), Arizona Cardinals (13th, despite re-signing Levi Brown) and Chicago Bears (19th).
In recent weeks there had been some chatter in the draftnik community about Riley Reiff sliding out of his previously established top-10 projection due to concerns about his lack of length and athleticism holding up against elite speed-rushers in the NFL.
Despite the possibility of those concerns by some teams in the league, the dearth of available options in free agency has now likely cemented him at six, eight or 10. The Bills could be the lowest he falls based on the priority of this need, given they do not re-sign Demetrius Bell, and in the wake of major moves at their two other big offseason needs.
This leaves Jonathan Martin as the last man standing in the middle of the first round to Arizona or Chicago at the latest—a nice rise after some had him pegged in the late first-, early second-round range.
Similar to the Bills' moves potentially lining up well for Reiff, the Chicago Bears seemingly addressed their other primary hole when they traded for Marshall, pointing to Martin not getting past them if he is available still when they pick.
Wide Receivers Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright
2 of 5Prospects
Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor University, 5'10", 190 lbs., senior, DOB: 11/12/1989
Michael Floyd, WR, University of Notre Dame, 6'2.5", 220 lbs., senior, DOB: 11/27/1989
Impacting free-agent signings
The absolute blitzkrieg that has resulted in arguably the top 10 to 15 wideouts being accounted for.
The rub
The organizations that could be looking at wide receivers in the top half of the first round, whether the projection be as a future No. 1 or an immediate complementary presence at No. 2, include the St. Louis Rams (linked to Justin Blackmon at sixth overall), Miami Dolphins (eighth), Buffalo Bills (10th), Seattle Seahawks (12th), Arizona Cardinals (13th), New York Jets (16th) and Cincinnati Bengals (17th).
The list alone in the previous paragraph serves as a succinct illustration as to how much the demand for this kind of player far outweighs the supply, the result of which will likely be both of these prospects going higher than some initially projected.
This includes me, as my latest mock draft has Wright going 20th to the Tennessee Titans and Floyd six picks later to the Houston Texans. Philosophically, I remain staunchly opposed to drafting wide receivers this highly in nearly every case, but the reality is we may see three of them go in the top 20 next month.
Offensive Guards David DeCastro and Cordy Glenn
3 of 5Prospects
David DeCastro, OG, Stanford University, 6'5", 315 lbs., redshirt junior, DOB: 1/11/1990
Cordy Glenn, OG, University of Georgia, 6'6", 335 lbs., senior, DOB: 9/18/1989
Impacting free-agent signings
The rub
The top three transactions represent the only elite guards available in this free-agent class, meaning a projected first-round pick at the position should be an immediate and cheaper upgrade, let alone the upside payoff, for those clubs in need at this spot.
DeCastro and Glenn have both been variously mocked in the late first round—in DeCastro's case, mainly due to the historic draft trend of devaluing the guard position. This specific projection was already a mistake based on how highly graded he is and the evolving emphasis on interior linemen in protecting the quarterback as defenses pour more resources into their pass rush.
Recently I mocked DeCastro going 14th to Dallas and Glenn 17th to the Bengals, and each team's recent free agent decisions only strengthens my resolve on these predictions.
The Cowboys appear to be zeroing in on DeCastro after swiftly signing unrestricted free agents at their other three positions of need last week: cornerback, inside linebacker and safety.
If Dallas passes on DeCastro for some reason, the Bengals would be the likely beneficiary. Nonetheless, their decision to let go of all three incumbent guards from 2011 (Bobbie Williams is not expected to re-sign but is still available) suggests Glenn will be in play for them as early as 17, if not 21.
I am a fan of both of these players and think DeCastro is a potentially special guard at the next level. I would not be critical if he were selected as high as eighth by the Miami Dolphins. Glenn is also attractive anywhere in the range of the Bengals picks because he may also have the athleticism to develop into an above average right tackle, furthering his value with this versatility.
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Nose Tackle Dontari Poe
4 of 5Prospect
Dontari Poe, NT, University of Memphis, 6'4", 345 lbs., junior, DOB: 8/18/1990
Impacting free-agent signings
The rub
At different times throughout the pre-draft process the Kansas City Chiefs have been rumored, linked or directly mocked to select a quarterback (Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M), running back (Trent Richardson, Alabama), offensive lineman (Jonathan Martin, Stanford) or early on a cornerback to replace the then-likely departing Brandon Carr.
The Chiefs have subsequently addressed each of those four positions in free agency:
- Quarterback Brady Quinn to compete with Ricky Stanzi for second and third on the depth chart behind Matt Cassel, who is under contract through 2014.
- Running back Peyton Hillis, who, despite some unsubstantiated links to the Central Intelligence Agency, has excellent dual ability as a runner/receiver to be the power complement to Jamaal Charles' style.
- Offensive tackle Eric Winston, considered in many circles to be the best right tackle in football in recent years, following his salary-related release by the Houston Texans.
- Cornerback Stanford Routt, also available in a cost-cutting decision by the Oakland Raiders, as a preemptive move to the expected free-agent departure of Brandon Carr, who ultimately signed with the Cowboys last week.
All of this leads to Dontari Poe, who went screaming up a lot of reactionary draftniks' boards, but perhaps very presciently, after a historic combine performance that saw him post 44 repetitions of 225 lbs. on the bench press and a 4.9-second time in the 40.
I still kept him as a late first-round grade because the tape on this player does not come even remotely close to the jaw-dropping physical prowess he possesses. However, given the Chiefs' moves and the fact that 2011 nose Kelly Gregg is contemplating retirement, Poe may be their guy.
Outside Linebacker Andre Branch
5 of 5Prospect
Andre Branch, OLB, Clemson University, 6'4", 260 lbs., redshirt senior, DOB: 7/14/1989
Impacting free-agent signings
The rub
With two picks in the late first round (27 and 31), New England has been variously linked to quality prospects at all four of its visible positional needs: wide receiver, pass-rusher, defensive end and defensive back.
Brandon Lloyd has been the most productive vertical threat in the NFL over the last three years, bringing a sorely lacking component to this already-potent offense.
Steve Gregory adds depth to a secondary that has been much-maligned in recent years, though it is now beginning to stockpile some nice pieces, which at least portends depth. Gregory is an average performer but will go with, at least, Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty on the safety depth chart.
Jonathan Fanene is another solid, cost-effective addition by Belichick that was likely targeted for how well he projects to fit as a 3-4 five-technique defensive end in base personnel, who can also slide inside to tackle because of his background there. His signing does not necessarily preclude the Patriots from still looking here in the late first, possibly a prospect like Kendall Reyes from the University of Connecticut.
All of these moves do somewhat lower the priority of their corresponding positions, which leaves perimeter pass-rusher and cornerback as the two most glaring needs on the Pats' roster. They also happen to be the two most expensive commodities, if seeking an above-average veteran, on this wish list, which could be another reason New England set up its offseason approach this way.
Branch is a player whose stock steadily rose throughout his career, including his senior year, when it settled into the early to mid-second round as a projectable starting all-around 4-3 defensive end.
However, he showed even better production and consistency, including the ability to bend the edge (video), as a pass-rusher this year and has enjoyed a stellar postseason period, to include flashing the requisite athleticism desired of a player that can also stand up and play outside linebacker. This versatility is what makes me think, along with his pass-rush skills, that he is a player the Patriots will covet in the late first round as the last sack artist in this area of the board.
As always, I look forward to your comments below and you may follow me on Twitter at @JeffRoemer.
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