NCAA Tournament 2012: Why UK Will Pound Iowa State Despite Pundit Upset Alerts

The top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats take on the eighth-seeded Iowa State Cyclones tonight at 7:45 p.m EST in Louisville for a trip to the Sweet Sixteen.

Enamored by Iowa State's versatile big man Royce White, some experts (and many fans) have put the top-ranked Wildcats on upset alert. The most notable pundit to do so was notoriously biased ESPN analyst and former Indiana coach Bob Knight.

His refusal to even say the name "Kentucky" in a broadcast is beyond ridiculous, but we shouldn't be surprised considering his statements on Mike and Mike a few weeks ago.

When asked who the best five teams in America were, he neglected to name the No. 1 Wildcats. When asked who the best five players in America were, he didn't list National Player of the Year front-runner Anthony Davis.

His bias is preposterous, and will hopefully be addressed by an ESPN producer with some intestinal fortitude. But I digress.

Knight isn't the only analyst to be wary of the Cyclones, and far from the only fan. In a recent Bleacher Report poll, nearly a quarter of respondents picked Iowa State over Kentucky. I understand this is March Madness, but it’s madness to make that prediction.

I realize I am not exactly getting out on a limb on this one, but the Wildcats will roll tonight because of history, location, and above all, talent.

Iowa State hasn’t even been to the tournament since 2005. This drought is in stark contrast with John Calipari’s unbelievable success.

Since 2005, Calipari has never done worse than the Sweet Sixteen. More precisely, he’s been to one Sweet Sixteen, three Elite Eights, one Final Four and one Championship Game. Calipari’s senior glue man, Darius Miller, has been to three NCAA tournaments, including the Elite Eight and Final Four. Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb are also battle tested after last year’s run.

In comparison, Iowa State’s head coach Fred Hoiberg, while boasting an impressive resume, has been the head coach for all of one NCAA tournament game. His players share that statistic. So the experience difference is unparalleled. And as many consider this to be John Calipari’s most talented team, I doubt he will fail to reach the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2005.

The second slightly important issue before we arrive to the all-important issue of talent is the location of the game. Held in Louisville, KY, a mere 75 miles from UK’s campus, this is about to be a quasi-home game for the Cats.

I take that back. This IS a home game for the Cats. In their first game versus Western Kentucky, WKU fans were only able to get about 1,000 tickets and they are also an in-state team. This staggering support will be unchanging, and the dominance of the Big Blue Nation will be felt in the KFC Yum! Center for the second straight game.

The Cyclones will be faced with a hostile crowd in a road-like environment, while they deal with the much more talented Wildcats.

Finally, there is the all-important issue of talent. There is no question that Kentucky is the most talented team in the country, but to quantify let’s take a look at Chad Ford’s top 50 NBA Draft prospects.

Kentucky has the No. 1, No. 2, No. 16, No. 41 and No. 47 ranked prospects. That’s basically an NBA team right there. Iowa State has the aforementioned Royce White, the No. 50 prospect.

All I hear from the pundits is how good Royce White is, but the Wildcats have five players ranked higher than him. When translated into wins and losses, that talent equals 33-2 to 23-10.

UK’s two losses came in their first road game against hostile Indiana at the buzzer and the last game of the season versus a surging Vanderbilt team. Iowa State has lost to the likes of Drake and Northern Iowa, but for the most part good teams.

I will save you the tedium of rattling off all the stats for you to read, it’s much easier to say the Wildcats lead the Cyclones in every major statistical category except for assists per game, where they average 1.2 less. The Cats are also fourth in offensive efficiency, and lead the nation in field goal percentage allowed (36.9 percent) and blocked shots (8.8). Iowa State boasts numbers nowhere near these, at 43.4 percent and 2.8, respectively.

In the end, this team does not match up with the mighty Wildcats, and anyone putting on the upset alert is either misinformed or naïve. My prediction is that ISU will challenge UK to hit outside shots and attempt to use Royce White to get Anthony Davis in foul trouble.

I also predict that neither strategy will work, as Doron Lamb and company will hit threes, and Davis will record at least five blocks while staying out of foul trouble.

I think the game opens up fairly close, but the Wildcats will pull away in the second half and win big, 80-65.