NCAA Bracket Breakdown: Talent Beats "Chemistry"

March is here again, which means everyone is busy filling out their brackets. Your co-worker is just waiting for you to walk by their desk, so they can tell you about the fact that they called Montana over Wisconsin in the opening round, failing to mention that this pick was noticeably absent in their first eight brackets.

Believe me, people don't want to hear about your bracket, but that's especially true if you've filled out four or five of them. You get one chance, one sheet. No one believes that you're an NCAA tournament selection savant; no need to try 50 different bracket combinations to pass yourself off as one.

I told you not to try and find the next Butler last year, and they tried to make me look bad, once again. That doesn't change the formula for this year. Talented teams go far, and those are the teams you should be looking at. I'm not saying to avoid underdogs, picking upsets is part of the fun; just leave them out of your Final Four.

Mid-majors don't win national championships; teams with NBA talent do. Here is an updated list of national champions dating back to 1995, along with the NBA players contained on their roster:

1995 - UCLA: Ed O Bannon, Charles O Bannon, Tyus Edney, George Zide

1996 - Kentucky: Antoine Walker, Derek Anderson, Walter McCarty, Tony Delk

1997 - Arizona: Miles Simon, Jason Terry, Mike Bibby

1998 - Kentucky: Jeff Sheppard, Nazr Mohammed

1999 - UConn: Richard Hamilton, Khalid El-Amin

2000 - Michigan State: Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson

2001 - Duke: Carlos Boozer, Jason Williams, Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy Jr

2002 - Maryland: Juan Dixon, Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake

2003 - Syracuse: Hakeem Warrick, Carmelo Anthony

2004 - UConn: Charlie Villanueva, Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor

2005 - UNC: Raymond Felton, Marvin Williams, Rashad McCants, Sean May

2006 - Florida: Corey Brewer, Taurean Green, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Lee Humphrey

2007 - Florida: See Above

2008 - Kansas: Cole Aldridge, Mario Chalmers, Sherron Collins

2009 - North Carolina: Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Tyler Hansbrough

2010 - Duke: Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith

2011 - UConn: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier (?)

You don't have to follow my picks; in fact, I would highly advise against it. Just don't try and guess who is going to be this year's Butler or VCU; you'll be wrong. Pick your upsets in the first couple of rounds, then leave them there.

The two most important factors when picking a tournament team is defense and rebounding (specifically on the offensive end). During the six-game stretch en route to an NCAA Championship, there are bound to be one-to-two games where you will struggle to shoot the ball. The teams that can overcome off shooting nights by stringing together stops and getting extra possessions on the glass are the teams that have a shot at cutting down the nets.

Here's who I like in this year's tournament.

South Region

Teams I Like

Kentucky

This one isn't a secret. Everyone in America seems to be jumping on the Wildcats to win it all, and they're right to do so. They have the most dominant college basketball player in the last five years in Anthony Davis. He is the consensus No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft and completely alters the game with his defense.

Throw in a couple more lottery picks in Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd Gilchrist (one of my favorite players in the country) along with one of the best shooters in the nation in Doron Lamb, and this is a team that should move on to New Orleans.

UNLV

The Running Rebels are a very talented team that played in a difficult Mountain West Conference this season. Mike Moser is a first-round NBA pick and is a beast on the glass.

Junior Anthony Marshall is also someone that is impressing NBA scouts with his athleticism. And senior Chase Stanback is a very good shooter who can really hurt teams from behind the three-point line.

The Rebels run a high octane offense but can also rebound the ball really well. They are a dangerous team.

UConn

Last year's national champion has struggled for most of the year, finally starting to come to life towards the end of the season. They are loaded with talent in Jeremy Lamb, Andre Drummond, Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier.

They take on Kentucky in a possible second-round matchup due to their low seeding, and I can guarantee that is a game Kentucky coach John Calipari does not want to play so early in the tournament.

Teams I Dislike

Duke

Much like Indiana, Duke has done a poor job withstanding poor shooting nights this season. They are stacked with talent with both the Plumlees, Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and others.

But they don't play defense, and they aren't a very good rebounding team. Not saying they can't make it to the Final Four, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see them with a second-round exit either.

Predicted South Region Winner - Kentucky

West Region

Teams I Like

Marquette

Buzz Williams deserves COY consideration for what he's done with this team this season, but they don't lack for talent either. Darius Johnson Odom is a killer with the ball and can shoot from outside as well.

They also have one of the toughest players in the nation in Jae Crowder, who can guard every position on the floor at 6'6''. Marquette is disruptive on defense with their length and are incredibly unselfish on offense.

This is a team that really has a chance to make noise in this tournament.

Missouri

Missouri isn't a big team, but they are absolutely stacked with quick guards. Phil Pressey is one of the top point guards in the country, and Marcus Denmon and Kim English both have futures in the league.

When you add Ricardo Ratliffe in the post, this is a very difficult matchup for most teams.

They don't overwhelm you with length, but every one of their guards rebounds the ball well. Unfortunately, one of them or Marquette will have to exit the tournament early, due to the fact that they have a potential matchup against each other in the third round.

But I believe whoever wins that game will be in the Final Four.

Long Beach State

I had to add them in here. Casper Ware is one of the toughest players in this tournament. And this is a team full of seniors that not only knows how to play together but they have a lot of talent as well.

T.J. Robinson is averaging a double-double and Larry Anderson also scores well into double figures. This is a No. 12 seed that is definitely capable of making a run to the Sweet Sixteen.

Teams I Dislike

Michigan State

They looked great winning the Big Ten Tournament last week, but I don't think they can withstand the loss of their top offensive rebounder, Branden Dawson.

Draymond Green has carried this team throughout the season, but if Keith Appling and Brandon Wood can't be consistent, the Spartans won't be going back to the Final Four.

Louisville

This is yet another team that went on a late run to win the Big East Tournament but have been inconsistent through much of the year.

They rely too much on the outside shot and don't play great on the defensive end of the floor. Peyton Siva is the player that makes this team go, and if he has an off night, say goodbye to Rick Pitino's squad.

Davidson will present a difficult challenge for them in the opening round.

Predicted West Region Winner - Marquette

East Region

Teams I Like

Vanderbilt

The Commodores became only the second team to beat Kentucky on the season en route to their SEC Tournament Championship on Sunday. This was a top 10 team to begin the season and are finally starting to live up to the billing.

Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins are sure-fire first-round picks, along with center Festus Ezeli, who is a beast in the paint. With Syracuse's Fab Melo ruled ineligible, Vandy has a serious chance of making a Final Four run as a five seed.

Ohio State

Not sure there are many teams in the country that should be more disappointed than the Buckeyes this season. They were the odds-on favorite to run away with the Big Ten and ended up in a three-way split with Michigan and Michigan State.

But they still have Jared Sullinger, along with William Buford and DeShaun Thomas, who both have futures in the NBA. Aaron Craft is the Big Ten defensive player of the year and is starting to put it together offensively.

The Buckeyes will be a tough team to handle in the East Region

Teams I Dislike

Wisconsin

The Badgers have struggled in March over the last few years. Aside from playing with a lack of talent and Jordan Taylor being the only offensive threat that can do damage with the ball in his hands, they don't play a style that is conducive to tournament success.

Wisconsin has relied heavily on the three-point shot this season but don't have a lot of great shooters. Don't be surprised if they make an early exit again this year, even it if happens in the first round.

Syracuse

The Orange looked poised to make a late run in the tournament this year until Fab Melo was ruled ineligible on Tuesday. The 7'0'' sophomore only averages 7.8 points and 5.8 rebounds a game, but he is the most important player to Syracuse's success.

He anchors the back line of their 2-3 zone and is one of the best shot blockers in the country. They were already susceptible to a hot shooting team with their zone, and now with him out, a team like Vanderbilt poses an even larger problem. It would really surprise me if Boeheim could take this team as far as the Final Four, despite only having two losses on the season.

Predicted East Region Winner - Ohio State

Midwest Region

Teams I Like

North Carolina

Assuming John Henson is healthy, the Tarheel frontline is absolutely stacked. The combination of him, Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes are all lottery picks in next year's draft.

When you throw in the point guard play of Kendall Marshall and the fact that they are the best rebounding team in the country, North Carolina will be nearly impossible to stop if they are on.

Kansas

When you have the player of the year candidate on your team like the Jayhawks do with Thomas Robinson, you always give yourself a chance. Kansas surprised a lot of people this year by winning the Big 12 title after losing a lot of their starting lineup from last season.

But point guard Tyshawn Taylor has been outstanding, and Jeff Withey is one of the top defensive players in the tournament. Throw in the fact that they will be playing their regional close to home in St. Louis, and you have to like their chances of heading to New Orleans.

Teams I Dislike

Saint Mary's

The Gaels have had a fantastic year—winning the WCC outright over Gonzaga, which is a rarity nowadays.

But Saint Mary's gives up a lot of points on the defensive end, and they haven't been particularly great against the upper-echelon teams in college basketball. They face a Purdue team that has gotten stronger as the year goes on, and I like the Boilermakers coming out of that matchup.

Georgetown

John Thompson III did another fantastic coaching job this season. He led the Hoyas to an unexpected 23-8 record, including a 12-6 mark in the Big East.

Center Henry Sims and junior guard Hollis Thompson are solid players, but Georgetown has struggled mightily to score the basketball this year. They are ranked in the top 10 in the country on the defensive end but aren't a stellar rebounding team.

If they can't find a way to put the ball in the basket, the Hoyas will have a tough time getting past San Diego State.

Predicted Midwest Region Winner -  North Carolina

North Carolina vs. Kentucky Rematch in New Orleans?

Final Four

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Marquette

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 North Carolina 

Championship

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Kentucky and North Carolina met on December 3rd in Lexington, KY for the best college basketball game of the season. Kentucky went on to win the game 73-72 when Anthony Davis blocked John Henson's attempt at a game-winning shot.

No doubt, this would end up being one of the great college championship games of all time, considering the talent on the floor.

The Wildcats are stacked from top to bottom, but North Carolina has more experience at both the point guard position and on the frontline.

On a neutral floor, North Carolina beats Kentucky to win their sixth national championship.

These are the picks I will be using on my own bracket; I reserve the right to be wrong on every single one of them.

For more articles by Dan, visit Hoosier Cafe

@Dan_Strzempka on Twitter