Bubble Teams 2012: Live Watch for Last 4 in and Last 4 out

There is plenty to be excited about regarding Selection Sunday as the NCAA tournament bracket is set by the selection committee, but perhaps the most interesting aspect is which bubble teams are chosen to be in the tourney and which are left out in the cold.

With the Big Ten, ACC and SEC title games featuring sure tournament teams, the only game today that can burst another team's bubble is the Atlantic 10 title game between Xavier and St. Bonaventure. It seems likely the Xavier would receive an at-large bid, but the Bonnies would not, so that is certainly a game that bears watching.

As much as it may seem like bubble teams are little more than fodder that are in line to lose to the top teams, VCU proved last season that even one of the last teams in the tournament can make some noise, as the Rams went on a magical run to the Final Four.

Check back here throughout the day for updates on what the top bracketologists in the business are saying about who may or may not be included in the 68-team field.

UPDATE: Sunday, March 11 at 6:51 p.m. ET

The brackets are out, and the bubble has blessed for some and bursted for others. Here's a look at the the last four teams in and some notable teams left out:

Last Four In:  California, USF, Iona, Byu

Notable Teams Out: Northwestern, Drexel, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Washington, Miami, Arizona

The fact that Drexel was snubbed in favor of Iona was a bit of a shock, though there are always shocks on Selection Sunday. Other than that, this held pretty close to expectations heading into the tournament.

UPDATE: Sunday, March 11 at 5:23 p.m. ET

Jerry Palm of CBS sees things a little bit differently than Joe Lunardi in regard to the bubble teams. 

He has Colorado State, California, Northwestern and Seton Hall as his "last four in" and North Carolina State, Ole Miss, Miami and Iona as his "first four out."

For Palm, Drexel doesn't even crack the "first four out," which seems like somewhat of an oversight to me. Drexel's resume earned them a bit more respect than that.

UPDATE: Sunday, March 11 at 5:00 p.m. ET

With St. Bonaventure beating Xavier in the Atlantic 10 championship game, one more at-large berth has been taken off the board.

Here's how Lunardi sees the bubble after the Bonnies stole a bid:

Last four in: BYU, South Florida, NC State, Seton Hall

Last four out: Drexel, Washington, Mississippi State, Iona

Next three out: Miami, Ole Miss, Arizona

There will be a lot of disappointed teams, but none more than a Drexel team that finished the year 27-6, won the CAA regular-season title and lost the CAA championship game by three to VCU.

UPDATE: Sunday, March 11 at 2:10 p.m. ET

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi recently released his final last four in and first four out of the NCAA Tournament on Twitter. There was one change from what he had this morning, but the Atlantic 10 title game between Xavier and St. Bonaventure will have a big impact on the field.

Here are Lunardi's last four in:

It looks as though Lunardi had a change of heart regarding Drexel as he previously had the Dragons as the second team out of the tournament. He now lists them as the last team in, but that could very well change as St. Bonaventure is in control against Xavier at the half in the A-10 final. Should the Bonnies win, then Drexel would go back to being the first team out, according to Lunardi.

Here are Lunardi's first four out:

After Mississippi State's embarrassing loss to Georgia in the SEC tournament Lunardi initially stood by it, but he has now put the Bulldogs outside the tournament in his final projections. This seems quite likely as Mississippi State lost to the likes of LSU, Auburn and Georgia late in the season and likely wouldn't fare well in the tourney. Washington remains his first team out, unless St. Bonaventure wins, in which case that distinction will go to Drexel.

UPDATE: Sunday, March 11 at 8 a.m. ET

It is well documented that the best-known bracketologist around is ESPN's Joe Lunardi. He tends to predict the field at an alarmingly accurate rate, so it will be interesting to see how close he is this year. Barring a St. Bonaventure win, his field is already set. Here is a deeper dive into Lunardi's projected last four teams in the tournament and first four teams out.

Last Four In

South Florida

NC State

Seton Hall 

Mississippi State

First Four Out

Washington 

Drexel

Iona

Miami (Fla.)

Lunardi is always awfully close to predicting the last four teams in the field, so those emotionally invested in South Florida, NC State, Seton Hall and Mississippi State have to be happy to see that he has them in.

If St. Bonaventure wins the Atlantic 10 tournament and Lunardi's projections are correct, however, one of those teams will be left out.

Provided Lunardi is on the money, there will be plenty of reason for the first four out to be disappointed. Washington won the Pac-12 regular season title with a sparkling 14-4 record in conference play, but a loss to Oregon State might have done the Huskies in.

Drexel went on an incredible late-season run as it won 19 consecutive games before bowing out to VCU in the CAA title game. Detractors will point to a poor RPI and strength of schedule, but perhaps Drexel can be this year's VCU if the Dragons make it in.

Iona is facing an uphill climb since it is incredibly rare for MAAC teams to receive an at-large berth. The Gaels went 15-3 in conference play and have an NBA prospect in Scott Machado, but their tournament hopes are slim at best.

Miami can make a case for itself, as it beat Duke and Florida State in ACC play, but the Hurricanes went just 19-12 overall and largely beat teams they were supposed to beat. Because of that, the committee is unlikely to be impressed.

Essentially, out of the teams that are listed in Lunardi's first four out, I see Washington and Drexel as teams that have a strong case.

They will both be rooting for Xavier today and hoping that the committee sees things their way. If not, there will be a couple of upset teams, just like there is every year on Selection Sunday.