March Madness 2012: Power Ranking Projected Top Seeds' Chances of Being Upset

The top seeds for the NCAA tournament are almost locked in. Before Championship Week began, we knew the Kentucky Wildcats and Syracuse Orange had done enough to ensure a top seed.

There were questions about Kansas and North Carolina's stranglehold on the top seeds though.

The questions about Kansas have turned to doubts now, as they were upended by Baylor in the Big 12 semifinals. With Baylor taking on Missouri in the Big 12 Final, Kansas has to play the waiting game now.

If the Tigers win, they will earn the top seed for sure. If they lose, they still may earn it, based on the fact that they advanced further in the conference tournament.

As for UNC, they are still chugging along in the ACC Tournament, but so is Duke.

If the Tar Heels knock off North Carolina State, and Duke gets by Florida St, (neither is a foregone conclusion), they will battle for a third time. In my opinion, this determines the final top seed.

My projected top seeds when all the dust settles are: Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri and Duke.

Here are the power rankings for the top seeds in the order of squads most likely to be upset:

1. Duke

Though I pick Duke to win the rubber match with North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, they are very inconsistent. As talented a back court as Austin Rivers, Quinn Cook, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are, they lack experience. Only Dawkins is an upperclassmen, and the team seems to fight the obvious notion that Rivers is the man at times.

This Duke team is an isolation team with Rivers, especially down the stretch. The offense must run through him, and they can become stagnant when they lose sight of that.

Three of the five losses they have suffered this season have come to teams that weren't ranked at the time. This proves the lower-seeded teams will have tons of hope and reference as they gameplan for the Blue Devils.

For Duke, it's all about defense. In their losses, they are allowing 81 points per game. Compare that to 68 points per game overall, and it's clear the way they defend dictates their success.

With a young team, defensive consistency is generally an issue, and it has been the issue in Duke's losses. One bad defensive night from Duke, and they could be upset, especially with a struggling identity on offense.

2. Syracuse

The Orange have been winning, but lately I haven't been impressed with their efforts for 40 minutes. They had to come from behind twice in the span of a month to defeat UConn, and in the Big East Tournament Cincinnati turned them away.

In this game, were it not for the three-point shot, the Orange would have been blown out. They shot 40 percent from the field overall, but Scoop Jardine and Dion Walters combined for 9-13 shooting from deep. This hot shooting pulled them out of a 17-point hole, but it didn't get the job done ultimately.

They obviously can't depend on that type of shooting going forward.

The Bearcats solved the Syracuse' matchup zone by shooting lights out from three themselves. Cincinnati was 10-22 from long range, and they aren't the last quality shooting team the Orange will face.

If Syracuse can't find a way to defend the arc better, they could exit easily.

3. Missouri

At the end of the regular season, I was convinced that Missouri was one of the four best teams in the nation. After taking Kansas to OT in Lawrence Fieldhouse, one of the toughest arenas to win in history, I was sure.

If they defeat Baylor in the Big 12 final as I predict, they will have established themselves for everyone to see.

This team has everything you want, except size.

They have tons of veteran leadership with leading scorers Marcus Denmon and Kim English both seniors, but their tallest player is 6'9". Teams with big front courts will try to punt the Tigers inside and control tempo. 

They are quick, explosive and high-scoring. They are averaging 80 points per game, which is seventh in the nation, and shooting 50 percent as a team, which is third in the nation. They want and need to run to be successful in the tournament.

If they shoot well, and defend, they can get by the lack of size. This is one of the toughest outs in the tournament this year.

4. Kentucky

The Wildcats look like a machine, as they have won 21 straight games. Kentucky has one of the nation's best players in Anthony Davis, and a plethora of talent throughout their roster.

It, of course, is a young team, so they will need great coaching to remain on this amazing roll. This could be where the issues come in.

John Calipari has fallen victim in the past when he's had ultra-talented teams in the NCAA tournament. The most recent example is 2010's Kentucky squad led by John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. That team was upset in the Elite Eight by West Virginia.

Before that, the Derrick Rose-led Memphis Tigers of 2007-2008 lost in the NCAA title game to a less talented Kansas' team.

If the Wildcats don't win the national title, it'll be because Calipari was outcoached again. This team is too talented to fall for any other reason.

That said, I don't see it happening this year. Calipari has done a good job of handling this roster, and he won't be victimized again. This will go down as one of the most historic and dominating seasons in recent memory.

A one-loss national champion will be crowned in New Orleans.