NCAA Basketball Bubble Watch: Who's In and Who's Out?

With only a few days left until Selection Sunday, we as college basketball fans find ourselves in the same position that we do every year—wondering which teams out of that annual collection of bubble teams will be fortunate enough to make the NCAA Tournament, and which teams the selection committee will shoot down.

Many people will say that the bubble is "soft" this year; but seriously—don't we say that every year? There is a reason why these teams are on the bubble: because they weren't impressive enough during the regular season to merit "lock" status, so of course their accomplishments are going to seem a bit lackluster when compared to squads like Kentucky and Syracuse.

It does, however, seem as if there are more teams on the bubble in 2012 than in previous years, and that only makes things more interesting.

So, let's examine each of the bubble teams, conference by conference, and see whether they're currently in, out or on the fence; and, if they aren't in, what they need to do to earn a bid (please note this is obviously subject to change based on what happens over the next couple of days):

ACC

Miami (19-11 [9-7]; RPI: 50, SOS: 51) — Outside of a win at Duke and a 16-point victory over Florida State, Miami's profile doesn't really jump out at you. The Hurricanes don't really have any other impressive wins, so if it weren't for that victory over the Blue Devils, we wouldn't even be mentioning Miami as an at-large contender. Not only that, but their computer numbers aren't impressive enough to sway the committee. Miami was swept by fellow ACC bubble team North Carolina State, and that's never good. Plus, it also lost to another bubble team in West Virginia. The Hurricanes will need to go on a run in the ACC Tournament to get in, and that would continue with a win over the Seminoles tonight (they beat Georgia Tech yesterday). OUT.

North Carolina State (21-11 [9-7]; RPI: 51, SOS: 19) — N.C. State has a couple of things working in its favor. First of all, it swept Miami, and should a spot in the tournament come down to those two teams, the Wolfpack should get the edge by way of the head-to-head results. Secondly, it has a nice strength of schedule, much nicer than that of the Hurricanes and many of the other bubble teams. North Carolina State also can lay claim to a victory over Big 12 bubble squad Texas, so that should help, as well. All of that said, did the Wolfpack pick up enough quality wins to merit an at-large bid? At the moment, I don't think so. They really blew a chance to significantly boost their résumé when they squandered that huge lead at Duke a few weeks ago. Like Miami, N.C. State will need to pick up some more wins in the ACC Tournament (it already defeated Boston College), and beating Virginia tonight would be a great start. OUT.

ATLANTIC 10

Saint Louis (24-6 [12-4]; RPI: 29, SOS: 109) — The Billikens do not exactly possess the strongest profile in the world, but they did win games, and sometimes, that makes all the difference. However, the question is, who did they beat? Well, they own a so-so non-conference win over Washington, but that is pretty much all they did outside the Atlantic 10 (as evidenced by their strength of schedule). Saint Louis did sweep fellow conference bubble team Xavier, and that could end up paying huge dividends when it's all said and done. But did it really do much else? The Billikens lost to Temple by five in the only meeting between the two teams during the regular season, and had they won that game, their profile would look that much better. Saint Louis absolutely cannot afford to lose to La Salle tonight in its conference tournament quarterfinal matchup. If the Billikens win tonight, they set up a potential meeting with Xavier in the semifinals (the Musketeers would have to beat Dayton to make that up). Three wins over Xavier should be enough to get this team in. Right now, though, its overall lack of quality wins is troubling. OUT.

Xavier (19-11 [10-6]; RPI: 55, SOS: 52) — The Musketeers have done some nice things out of conference, beating Vanderbilt on the road and defeating Purdue and Cincinnati at home. However, that was early on in the season, and since then, Xavier has been the very definition of inconsistent. It does not really have any bad losses, though, and that should certainly help when it comes time for the committee to make its decision. Still, the Musketeers don't exactly have what I would call awe-inspiring computer numbers, and the fact that they have 11 losses in a so-so conference isn't going to sit well. They have to beat Dayton tonight and then top Saint Louis (assuming the Billikens beat La Salle) tomorrow. If that happens, they should be in. At the moment, though? OUT.

Saint Joseph's (20-12 [9-7]; RPI: 54, SOS: 37) — One thing the Hawks have working in their favor is their decent strength of schedule, especially when put up against fellow conference bubble teams Saint Louis and Xavier. However, does Saint Joseph's have enough quality wins for that to mean much? The Hawks do own wins over Creighton, Drexel and Temple, but they lost their only meetings to the Billikens and the Musketeers. Those losses are killers. Saint Joseph's will need to win its conference tournament to earn a bid. OUT.

BIG EAST

West Virginia (19-13 [9-9]; RPI: 48, SOS: 10) — The Mountaineers' second-round Big East Tournament game against Connecticut was a essentially a winner-locks-up-a-bid contest, and the Huskies came away the victors. Now, Bob Huggins' crew will have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday, although based on West Virginia's computer numbers, I think we will see its name in the bracket. The Mountaineers also have a collection of decent and impressive wins, including victories over Miami, Kansas State, Georgetown, Cincinnati and fellow Big East bubble team South Florida. West Virginia does have some ugly losses, though, most notably a 10-point defeat at home against Kent State, and the 27-point drubbing it suffered at the hands of Notre Dame will not sit well with the committee. However, the Mountaineers should be OK based on their aforementioned wins and their strength of schedule. IN.

South Florida (20-13 [12-6]; RPI: 43, SOS: 32) — People will point to the Bulls' 12-6 record within the Big East and say that they should be a tournament team—but do not be misled. The very solid majority of those wins came against conference doormats. South Florida does own victories over Cincinnati, Louisville and bubble rival Seton Hall, but it did absolutely nothing out of conference, and some of its losses outside the Big East were downright putrid: losing by 12 at Auburn, 23 at VCU, and 28 at Kansas. Yes, VCU and Kansas are both tournament teams and the Jayhawks are one of the best teams in the country, but it is the margin of defeat in those games that will seriously hurt the Bulls. Plus, they also lost by 30 at Georgetown. While South Florida's computer numbers aren't poor, I really think it needed to beat Notre Dame in the Big East quarterfinals to move closer to an at-large bid. Fortunately for the Bulls, plenty of other bubble teams have been falling, and that has improved their chances. Unless the bubble shrinks (which is very possible), I think they are safe for now, but barely. IN.

Seton Hall (20-12 [8-10]; RPI: 59, SOS: 49) — Seton Hall is very frustrating. The Pirates looked to be moving toward an at-large bid after thumping Georgetown by 18, but then they went and lost to Rutgers and got absolutely demolished by the worst team in the Big East in DePaul. Couple that with the fact that Seton Hall's only other impressive conference wins came over Connecticut and West Virginia (both coming at home), and you have a team that should not be feeling too confident about its chances heading into Selection Sunday. The Pirates do have two solid non-conference wins, beating VCU and Dayton, but I don't think the committee will look too closely at the latter of those two victories. Seton Hall's computer numbers don't exactly jump out at you, either. The Pirates missed a big opportunity by falling to Louisville in the Big East Tournament. OUT.

BIG TEN

Northwestern (18-13 [8-10]; RPI: 44, SOS: 8) — Yes, the Wildcats beat Michigan State, Yes, they suffered some gut-wrenching losses, two to Michigan and one to Ohio State. And yes, their strength of schedule is extremely impressive. However, unless you consistently win games, none of that is going to matter, and Northwestern hasn't done that. Outside of its victory over the Spartans, Northwestern can't really hang its hat on much else inside the Big Ten, and its best non-conference victory came over Seton Hall. The Wildcats really needed to win some games in their conference tournament, but they feel to Minnesota in the opening round. Sorry, Northwestern fans, but you will have to wait at least another year to make it to your first NCAA Tournament. OUT.

BIG 12

Texas (20-12 [9-9]; RPI: 50, SOS: 20) — The Longhorns picked up a huge win in their first round Big 12 Tournament matchup against Iowa State last night. Had they lost, I think they would have undoubtedly been on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday, but now, Texas lives to see another day. Based on the fact that its other quality wins aren't exactly glittering (Temple, Kansas State, and it beat Iowa State during the regular season, as well), I think the Longhorns would be very well-served to defeat Missouri tonight. Their at-large chances depend significantly on the outcome of that game. As of right now, based on their strength of schedule and few solid wins, I think they are safe. IN.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Colorado State (20-10 [8-6]; RPI: 20, SOS: 4) - Colorado State's computer numbers are sparkling, and it owns three huge wins over the likes of San Diego State, UNLV and New Mexico. It also owns a nice non-conference win over Montana and avoided a misstep by topping TCU in the first round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament last night. So, I think barring a catastrophic loss at the hands of San Diego State tonight, the Rams should be pretty good about their at-large chances. If they are able to defeat the Aztecs later, then consider them a lock. IN.

PAC-12

California (24-8 [13-5]; RPI: 37, SOS: 100) — How incredible would it be if the Pac-12 ends up being a one-bid league? The way it looks right now, it is very possible. California appears to be the best team in the conference, but that is not saying much (just take a look at its strength of schedule). The Golden Bears did absolutely nothing out of conference, their greatest opportunity coming at San Diego State where they lost by one point. They did pretty much clean up within the Pac-12—but who cares? The league is so weak this year that I think it is a must to win the conference tournament to go dancing. Fortunately for California, it owns wins over fellow conference bubble teams in Oregon (twice) and Washington. I'm not sure how much that helps, though, especially given how off-putting Cal's SOS is (yes, I brought it up again). OUT.

Oregon (22-9 [13-5]; RPI: 49, SOS: 87) — So their strength of schedule is slightly better than that of California's; but the Ducks were swept by the Golden Bears and have no nice non-conference wins. So why are we even discussing them as a potential at-large team? Just a formality, really, and given that Oregon lost to Colorado in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament, unless a family member of the coaching staff is on the selection committee, I think Oregon can kiss its tournament hopes goodbye. The Ducks have just not done enough, and it's not like their computer numbers can compensate for their lack of good wins. OUT.

Washington (21-10 [14-4]; RPI: 57, SOS: 86) — Usually, when you are in one of the power conferences and you win your league, people are debating whether or not you should be a one or a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament. In Washington's case, the debate is whether or not it even belongs in the dance, period, and honestly I don't think it does. If we are going to lambast Oregon for its complete lack of a marquee win, then we have to do the same with the Huskies. Yes, they did play Marquette and Duke tough, but close only counts in horseshoes and grenades. At the very least, Washington had to win a couple of contests in its conference tournament to garner serious consideration for an at-large bid, but it didn't even do that, falling to Oregon State in the first round last night. Just like the Ducks, the Huskies don't have eye-opening computer numbers, either. Sorry, but I don't see how in the world Washington earns a trip to the tournament. OUT.

SEC

Mississippi State (21-11 [8-8]; RPI: 62, SOS: 76) — Things were looking good for Mississippi State a few weeks ago, but then the Bulldogs came apart at the seams, losing five in a row and, in the process, blowing a golden opportunity by failing to put away Kentucky in a nine-point loss on February 21. The Bulldogs did rebound by topping South Carolina and Arkansas to cap off the regular season, but they then went and lost to Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tournament. However, the question is, did Mississippi State do enough before its collapse to earn a bid? It owns four victories over likely tournament teams, winning at home against West Virginia and Alabama and on the road against Vanderbilt and Detroit. It also beat a fellow conference bubble team in Tennessee, and its wins over Arizona and Mississippi aren't too shabby, either. What might end up being the kiss of death for the Bulldogs is their lackluster computer numbers, but I'd like to think their collection of quality wins should be enough to overcome that, especially given the resumes of many of the other bubble teams. IN.

Tennessee (18-13 [10-6]; RPI: 75, SOS: 40) — Whether Tennessee makes the field of 68 or not, a load of credit has to be given to first-year coach Cuanzo Martin for completely turning this team around midway through the season. The Volunteers actually have a few nice wins, sweeping Florida and beating Connecticut and Vanderbilt. That said, they have some poor losses, too, including defeats at the hands of Oakland, Austin Peay and the College of Charleston. However, all of those losses came early on in the season, and one has to wonder if the committee keeps that in mind when making its decision on Tennessee on Sunday. If the Vols can win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament, it would be enormous. Right now, I'm not sure their resume is good enough to overshadow those bad losses. OUT.

OTHER AT-LARGE CONTENDERS

Southern Mississippi (25-7 [11-5]; RPI: 17, SOS: 51) — Southern Mississippi averted disaster last night, defeating East Carolina in overtime in the Conference USA quarterfinals. A loss may very well have been crippling, but that didn't happen. The Golden Eagles certainly pass the eye test, as they have collected 25 wins and can lay claim to a very impressive RPI. They own a couple of decent wins within their conference, beating Memphis and Central Florida. Also notable is that Southern Mississippi nearly swept Memphis, but it fell by two on Memphis' floor back in January. In terms of nonconference wins, the Golden Eagles defeated South Florida and Mississippi. No, they don't own a ton of quality wins, but the nice RPI will likely weigh heavily on the selection committee. It would help if Southern Mississippi beat Marshall today, though. IN.

Long Beach State (23-8 [15-1]; RPI: 35, SOS: 89) — Any time a team goes 15-1 within their own conference, people will take notice. Still, it's not like Long Beach State is playing in the Big East or anything. It plays in the Big West. That said, it played the toughest nonconference schedule in the nation this season, further illustrating my point how weak the Big West really is (look at the overall strength of schedule). The 49ers hung in there at Louisville, at Kansas, at North Carolina,  at San Diego State, and at Creighton, losing by seven, eight, six, four and two, respectively. You can even throw a two-point road loss to NCAA Tournament team Montana in the mix if you please. I know I said earlier in the case of Northwestern that even with all of those close losses, you still need to win games, but based on what Long Beach State did elsewhere, don't think the committee won't take those close losses to top competition into consideration. The 49ers' best non-conference win came over Xavier, and it's a shame, because they were so close to owning a couple of huge wins other than that. Based on their dominance within the Big West and how close they came to beating some of the NCAA's elite, I think Long Beach State is in good shape, although an ugly loss in its conference tournament can quickly change that. IN.

Iona (25-7 [15-3]; RPI: 45, SOS: 156) — Coach Tom Cluess can beg and plead all he wants, but the fact remains that Iona did not take care of business in its conference tournament in the MAAC, falling to Fairfield in the semifinals and likely eradicating its at-large hopes. The Gaels' best nonconference win came over Saint Joseph's, and that is just not going to be enough even with their 25 victories overall. OUT.

Brigham Young (25-8 [12-4]; RPI: 47, SOS: 104) — Honestly, I don't know how much of a bubble team Brigham Young is, because it doesn't exactly have much on its résumé to give it any credence. The Cougars did beat Gonzaga back in February, and other than wins over Oregon and Weber State, they didn't do anything out of conference. BYU's ugly strength of schedule obviously won't help matters much, and even with its impressive record within the West Coast Conference, I don't see the selection committee calling their name on Sunday. OUT.

Drexel (27-6 [16-2]; RPI: 65, SOS: 249) — That brings us to one of the more interesting bubble teams in recent memory: Drexel. How many times has a team with 27 wins missed the NCAA Tournament? On the other side of the coin, how many times has a team with that paltry of a strength of schedule made it? It certainly is a quandary, and its a decision that the selection committee will likely be criticized for either way. If they let them into the field of 68, people will say that there is no way a team like Drexel is better than a bubble team from one of the major conferences. If they don't, then people will say that the committee has a bias against mid-majors. My opinion? I don't think the Dragons belong in the tournament. The best teams they played outside of conference were Virginia and Saint Joseph's, and they lost both games. The funny thing is, if they would have just taken care of business in the finals of the Colonial Athletic Tournament against VCU, this wouldn't even be an issue, but they didn't. OUT.