Manchester United: 7 Reasons Sir Alex May Never Win the Champions League Again

The collapse in European home form by Manchester United can no longer be regarded as a temporary blip.

For years, 'Fortress Old Trafford' has buttressed the Red Devils' inexorable march through the higher echelons of European football. Sir Alex has been able to rely on targeting eight points in the League section of the ECL and then relax and bring on less experienced squad players to cut their teeth.

Now something fundamental has happened.

For over a year now, press and pundits have been muttering that 'this is the worst United squad in years'...and yet they won the League last year and have a real chance this season. Furthermore, they have also already won 10 away matches in the Premier League compared to a total of only five last time.

None of that suggests an under-performing squad. On the contrary it either proposes that Sir Alex has been performing the Indian rope trick, or that he has managed to engineer a period in transition and motivate the team to higher things.

There are other possible factors, however.

United have been famous for playing flair, attacking football since the days of Sir Matt Busby. Certainly the present team can do the same, but they have relied much more in recent years on a rock solid defence and counter-attack.

In the days of Van Nistelrooy, Ronaldo and Tevez, there was certainly more flair. If you ask people how many genuinely world class players there are in the squad now, you might get two at a push—Rooney and Vidic (who is unavailable). 

Some might propose Ferdinand, Scholes and Giggs—and certainly they have been—but do they really count when they can no longer play every match?

The other factor is the team ethic. In Barcelona's team, how many individuals really stand out? Oh yes, Xavi and Iniesta are world class as well as Messi, but the former are more noticeable for their clinical effectiveness than their unique genius of a diminutive colleague.

What Barca do have—and United also, to a lesser extent—is a team ethic. As much as any United squad in history, they all want to stay—and play—together. And it shows best when the chips are down, as they were against Norwich with two minutes to go.

No More ECL Wins for Sir Alex?

So what is it that leads me to suggest Sir Alex may never get his wish for at least one—and ideally two—more ECL wins?

Well, there are a number of factors, but the last one of all may surprise and shock you most of all, because it goes to the root of United's success in the recent era. There appears to have been a fundamental change which, if not arrested, could damage not only United's prospects in Europe, but on all fronts—as well as their ability to attract top talent. 

I have sat through all the European home matches this season and have thought long and hard about what has changed from the team that reached a Final against Barcelona barely 10 months ago.

These articles are often a matter of opinion and I would be delighted to be wrong, but a worrying pattern seems to have been emerging.

What follows are the possible reasons which need to be addressed, because one way or another, this is not the United in Europe of less than a year ago. 

Fear Factor

There are more cliches in soccer than you can shake a stick at. Two are: 'we showed them too much respect'; and, 'there are no easy matches at this level.'

Well...as Apoel Nicosia have just shown...there are no easy matches, and it is possible not to show enough respect.

In the home match against Basel and also against Ajax, it just seemed like United didn't show their opponents enough respect. Up 2-0 against the Swiss team, the tie seemed over; and similarly 1-0 against Ajax in the second leg of the Europa League.

You can't do that in the Premier League, and you can't do it in Europe.

One of the main reasons is that the fear factor is disappearing fast. This was best evidenced by Basel in the Champions League and Bilbao in the Europa League.

There are two sides to the fear factor when it's there: United believe they can go out and zap the opposition; and the other team gives United too much respect. Not so Basel, Bilbao or, for that matter, Ajax in the second leg.

And yet, funnily enough, while it wasn't there for Norwich, it may have been for Spurs, who haven't beaten United for so long in the Premier League.

Bilbao played fearlessly, but they also showcased Spanish football at its very best. Once again United started slowly and played too deep. They invited the ball-playing Basques on to them and on they came. It was a lesson in skillful football, and you could have been forgiven for thinking United had changed to a green strip.

Midfield

Paul Scholes' return and Ryan Giggs' age-defying antics are papering over the cracks.

As Thursday night showed, Plan B is not yet working. Indeed, what is it? Back in August you could have been forgiven for thinking that the future was Anderson and Cleverley. Since then, the former has returned to his injury (and weight) plagued troubles and, thanks to Kevin Davies, Cleverley has hardly played, with ligament trouble.

What neither of them can do is pass as well as Paul Scholes. Neither can dribble like Ryan Giggs who, if he had played as No. 10 for the last 900 matches would surely have passed comparison with Lionel Messi.

Thank goodness that Michael Carrick has restored his confidence. Even before Scholes' unlikely return, Michael was showing the form that earned him a solid England place in the past. He may be 30, but he hardly gives the ball away and he can pass it—not quite in Scholes' class but good enough with the right man alongside him. But only for two or three more years.

There will never be another Scholes or a Giggs. Ferguson must accept that and adapt United's playing style accordingly, but he must find the next generation of midfield general.

So it's no wonder that Sneijder's name keeps coming up. He ran the midfield in the World Cup and against Real Madrid for Inter Milan. But he's 28 in June, so Fergie had better get him quick before United's age portcullis comes down.

The way things are looking, however, the Boss seems more likely to go for the future. He has young Tom and others like Ryan Tunnicliffe coming through and would love to keep Paul Pogba, but seems to have lost him.

Sir Alex will be outraged at this development, but it will stiffen his resolve to only sign players who WANT to play for United. Chicharito is an outstanding role model of humility and commitment. But first Morrison and now Pogba have shown themselves to be greedy and full of their own self-importance.

Pogba came with talent, but Old Trafford was his finishing school. His way of saying thanks is to offer the old two-fingered salute. Sir Alex will get over it, and it will cost him money. Pogba will not get the same chances or success at Juventus. Like Nasri at City, he may find his pursuit of lucre has cost him his potential.

So if you accept that there is no Scholes out there, and if you don't buy the finished article, there is no alternative to buying the next big thing. Two who likely fit that bill are the precocious talents of Mario Gotze and Christian Eriksen.

Quiet in the first leg for Ajax, Eriksen looked the real deal at Old Trafford. At barely 20, he still has some developing to do, but learning from Scholes and then alternating with Cleverley alongside Carrick, he has the temperament to be a big star.

As Thursday showed, there is no one like Scholes, and there was a vacuum until Carrick came on and steadied the ship.

In short, United won't win another Champions League until the midfield conundrum is sorted. It was overrun at Wembley. It wasn't Carrick's fault—he's not a holding midfielder.

United's tradition is that attack is the best form of defence. That was not in evidence at Wembley and nor was it even on Thursday. That is the biggest single challenge that Sir Alex and probably his successor will have for the foreseeable future.

Passing

The irony is that neither Xavi nor Iniesta is Paul Scholes either. In fact the nearest United have is...Michael Carrick. His passing completion stats are in the 80s percentages and he virtually never loses the ball. Like Xavi and Iniesta he is undemonstrative and coolly professional.

But as Wembley showed, United aren't Barcelona and on Wednesday against Bilbao it showed. Many have compared the Spanish team's performance to Barcelona. Maybe that was the plan. If so, it worked. United's passing was woeful until Carrick came on and Atletico passed them off the park.

What is worrying is that United have been one of the better passing teams in the Premier League, but on recent form in Europe, United make Swansea and Norwich look Spanish. 

When United play their passing game at pace, few can live with them. It is inculcated all the way from the Academy. At times they can make Arsenal look like ugly ducklings but, whether due to confidence or lack of concentration, their passing game has been patchy in Europe.

And even in the Premier League, there are signs that they could be found out. Teams are finding that by surrounding and pressing the man with the ball, United can at times look to be lacking in ideas as to how to break down the opposition.

On Thursday, Bilbao played like the United of old. They kept the ball, played with pace, pressed and had a top striker on the edge of the crosses. Here's hoping it isn't lost and gone.

The Competition

In 2009, Apoel Nicosia drew 2-2 with Chelsea in the Champions League. This week, they reached the last eight.

There are no easy matches...as Lyon found.

The truth is that the competition have grown stronger, and the belief has accompanied it. Basel and Bilbao came to Old Trafford believing they could win. They had a game plan to match. They weren't overawed by United or their reputation, nor were Ajax, even when they were 3-0 down on aggregate.

That's the way United used to be, with a belief that they could beat everyone and a game plan to match. That's the way Blackpool played in the Premier League last year.

Teams are now better coached, better organised, better motivated, and despite Barcelona's trouncing of Bayer Leverkusen, anyone is beatable on the night.

Bilbao are the fifth best Spanish team—United were second best only to Barcelona last year—but Marcelo Bielsa has shown the way, and Fergie will have to rethink yet again to justify United's second favourite rating before Thursday's tie.

Transition and Integration

When the story of 2011/12 is written and read in a few years time, the most astonishing thing will be how well United did, with probably the most injured players ever; with young players like Cleverley, Welbeck, Jones, Smalling, et al, being integrated into the side.

It may also be seen that one of the main reasons why Paul Pogba left was Fergie's difficulty in balancing the pursuit of results with the need to move on to the next generation.

Wayne Rooney at 18 and Phil Jones at 19 came straight into the side. Rafael, Fabio and Smalling have been in and out. 

Sir Alex's priorities have been shown in his team selection: Ferdinand, Carrick, Scholes and Rooney in the Premier League; Smalling, Rafael, Jones and Hernandez in Europe. Get the results in the League, and give the youngsters experience in Europe.

Sir Alex has tried to ride both horses with a squad in transition, and it hasn't worked in Europe or in the Cup competitions. The future talent is getting much-needed experience, and, it is said, you learn based from mistakes. There are now too many mistakes in Europe, and United are a very long way away from the team that made the Final last May.

With the need for success and its commercial consequences, the growing challenges in midfield, the need to move to the next generation and Fergie's looming retirement, there are many reasons to believe that another Champions League win is a step too far for the time being. 

Motivation and Leadership

Where is the combative leadership of yesteryear?

Especially without Nemanja Vidic, there seems to have been a vacuum—especially when it has been needed most.

When United went 3-1 down against City, someone needed to stamp their personality on the team and say 'hey guys, let's get a grip, damage limitation,' but instead the team continued to go 'gung-ho' and self-destruct in a blitz that may have there and then handed the title to City.

Evra is not the right captain. Against City, he was in the wrong half of the pitch for five of the goals. He may be a great attacking fullback, but his judgement is suspect and he cannot contain great wide men, as Thursday showed. Ferdinand should have been vice captain.

Then there is motivation. Sir Alex in his programme notes yet again implied that the lessons had been learned in Europe, but yet again he underestimated the opposition by fielding a seriously weakened team and a makeshift midfield. And yet again the players started slowly, playing too deep, seemingly not understanding the Boss's instructions to play higher up and attack.

Against Norwich, it took a 84th minute goal to get the machine going; against Bilbao it took a 3-1 deficit. These are worrying times and this team is a mere shadow of the would-be Champions League winners of just 10 months ago.

Where Has the Crowd Gone?

There is one thing that the Basel, Benfica, Ajax and Bilbao home ties had in common—the away supporters drowned the home support with their singing and chanting. At each and every one of those matches, you would have thought the opposition was the home team.

What must Christian Eriksen have thought about a move to Old Trafford when there was hardly a peep from his would-be home crowd?

Frankly, this is seriously worrying.

And what is so surprising is that away from home, United's supporters are as good as anyone's. So what on earth has happened to the Stretford End?

OK so you could level a fair accusation at the 'nouveau riche' prawn sandwich brigade for their polite attendance—as if they are on a visit to the cinema; but at times in the European ties this season, Old Trafford has been like a cathedral—you could literally hear a pin drop.

Fergie has constantly referred to it in his programme notes, trying to get the supporters up for the vital matches. But based on the noise on Thursday, there was only ever going to be one winner.

The Basel, Ajax and Bilbao fans especially have been outstanding and drove their teams to a result. Frankly, the Old Trafford crowd has been a disgrace. 

It is said that you get what you deserve and even at £24 a pop, the Old Trafford faithful deserved nothing out of Thursday's match. Three times the Stretford End started a chant and a song and three times it petered out into nothing in seconds, overwhelmed by a wall of sound coming from the 4,000 strong opposition.

Sir Alex must despair and the players must wonder what is going on. But truth be known, United are slipping fast in home European ties, and the crowd is doing virtually nothing to support them.

And that to me is the single most worrying factor. The players need the crowd and the crowd need the players, but nothing much is happening on either side. Until this alarming state of affairs is arrested, I frankly see no chance whatsoever of United winning the Champions League.

The answer is in the hands of the supporters and the manager. The team needs more noise, but the crowd needs more to shout about.