2012 NFL Wide Receiver Draft Class: A Trip Through Oz for the 49ers

With the rookie Combine behind us and the start of free agency less than a week away, trying to predict what the San Francisco 49ers will do with their first-round pick is as difficult as ever.

Both the 2012 rookie draft class and free agency figure to be quite deep at the receiver position and, in this buyer’s market, expect the Niners to make some moves and bolster their most lackluster position. Many believe the better of these two options is to use the 30^th pick in the draft to take a wide receiver where they could find someone that will be productive for many years and come at the right price. This, however, would be a mistake.

It takes no stretch of the imagination to predict Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon and Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd will be off the board by the time the 49ers’ pick comes around. While these two receivers are clearly in a class of their own, the remaining options are more akin to what you might expect in a trip through Oz rather than projected first-round picks.

The Scarecrow, Cowardly Lion, and Tin Man were all one vital piece short of complete, just like the second-tier receivers in this year’s wide receiver draft class. This group includes Mohamed Sanu, Reuben Randle, Kendall Wright, and Alshon Jeffery—players most people believe can be the answer to the Niners’ wideout woes. While I would not insult the athletes by suggesting one has no brain and another no heart, none of them are the total package one would expect of a first-round pick.

Running a pedestrian 4.67 seconds in the 40-yard dash, Mohamed Sanu was one of the bigger disappointments of the Combine. Sanu is a physical presence and a great talent, but he simply does not have the speed necessary to generate separation at the professional level.

Reuben Randle is another receiver with great size but with the added speed that Sanu lacks. Unfortunately, a weak vertical jump height of 31 inches leaves room for skepticism over his explosiveness coming out of breaks and ability to go up and fight for a jump ball.

Someone who did have an impressive vertical jump was Kendall Wright. However, a 38.5 inch vertical is not enough to compensate for his small stature. There are few elite receivers in the league at 5’10”, and it would be a gamble to count on Wright joining their ranks.

A walking gamble himself, Alshon Jeffery had a head-scratching few months since winning the Capital One Bowl. Rumored to have ballooned to 240 pounds after the season ended, Jeffery showed up to the combine at a trim 216, only to avoid partaking in any of the Combine drills. To be worthy of a first-round pick, Jeffery has to prove he can run a competitive 40 yard dash in the 4.5 second range. Unfortunately, he won’t run one until South Carolina’s pro day on March 28^th and the 49ers can’t risk missing out on a promising free agency for one prospect.

The good news is that there are a number of options available. The simplest solution is to trade back to the mid-second round, and take the best available receiver left while adding a mid-round pick for the trade. Even if the Niners find themselves in the middle of the second round without any of the above options available, it would still be acceptable at this point to take a risk on a talent like Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill.

Another option on the table is giving up the first-round pick for veteran talent. While the Philadelphia Eagles have made it quite clear that DeSean Jackson is available for trade, his attitude and off-field antics are not the Harbaugh way.

The Steelers’ Mike Wallace, on the other hand, is a great fit in San Francisco as he demands a double team which takes pressure off of Crabtree and Davis, and prevents opposing teams from stacking the box against the run. Pittsburgh is in a tough financial situation and took a risk putting first-round tender on their restricted free agent. Their hopes are only teams with high first-round picks have the cap space to make a move on the 26-year-old Wallace. For the Niners, who have the cap space, parting ways with their 30^th pick for a Pro Bowl talent like Wallace is a no-brainer, but it would take an offer in excess of $10 million per year to prevent the Steelers from matching it.

The last, and most likely of the options, is simply for the Niners to draft the best available player at a position that benefits them and look to free agency for a wide receiver. Such positions could be cornerback, offensive tackle, guard or defensive tackle.

The point is, why use a first-round pick on second-rate talent? The 49ers are not one Cowardly Lion away from a Super Bowl. Nor are they short a Tin Man or Scarecrow, so click your heels Dorothy and look elsewhere.