Tennessee Basketball: Can the Vols Make the Big Dance?

After the tumultuous tenure of Bruce Pearl and nearly 70 percent of their scoring gone, the nation was ready to forget about the Tennessee men's basketball program for a while. 

The problem was the Vols weren't ready to be forgotten about. 

A team picked by media to finish 11th in the SEC this season, Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 SEC) struggled early in the season before a blistering hot finish. To the surprise of nearly everyone, they finished second in the conference.

In a normal season, the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament would be a lock for the NCAA tournament. In a normal season, a team with a RPI rating of 75 (which would be the lowest RPI in tournament history) would be nowhere close to being on the bubble. 

Nothing about the Vols acquiring a top-caliber player in Jarnell Stokes midseason, barely 18 years old and fresh out of high school, was normal. Also, nothing about Tennessee dropping a home game against the likes of Austin Peay, but taking down the defending champs and sweeping Florida, was normal. 

Then, throw in the culture and style of play shock that came with Cuonzo Martin's system as well as the time it took to adapt, and we have ourselves a bizarre situation.

Should all of that be considered by the selection committee? 

Absolutely. They've recently thrown out the idea of looking at the "last X games" criteria, but whether or not they look at the Vols' 8-1 record in their last nine games, the evolution of their team throughout this season cannot be ignored.

They're playing inspired ball and have a team that can stack up with anyone. Point guard Trae Golden is cutting down on his early-season mistakes and putting the ball in the right place, while leading the team with 13.4 points per game and making big shots when the offense gets stagnant.

The powerful, bruising combination of Stokes and second-team All-SEC forward Jeronne Maymon (who scored at least 12 points in each SEC game) has the ability to wear down front courts.

Both Maymon and Golden averaged three points or less last season, when they collapsed throughout the season's home stretch and were bounced in the first round by Michigan's 30-point drubbing in Pearl's final game.  

While having a No. 2 seed in the SEC is a boost, it also gives the Vols a first-round bye, which means potentially less games they can win. They will play Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET against the winner of Auburn and Ole Miss, both of which they have defeated this season.  

According to ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the Vols are currently competing for the last few at-large bids with Northwestern, Seton Hall, Drexel, Xavier and Texas, among others.

Drexel has won 25 of their last 26 and were the major threats to take down VCU in the CAA tournament before getting bounced in the finals. That puts the Vols in a tough situation because VCU gets the automatic berth and Drexel still has quite a case for an at-large bid.

Northwestern, Xavier and Texas are all with Tennessee on the wrong side of 20 wins. Early exits in conference tournament weekend would be of huge help for the Vols, who need to reach the SEC tournament championship on Sunday to reach the 20 win plateau.

With all of that said, Tennessee controls their own fate. All eyes are watching a team that fell out of the spotlight for some time and earned their way back into the great magnifying glass that is the bubble. Losing on Friday would all but soil their chances, but making it to Saturday and potentially beating Vanderbilt for the second time in a week would give the Vols a chance in making the field of 68. 

Ideally, Kentucky is the only team the Vols could lose to this weekend and still feel comfortable about their chances. 

If the Vols reach the SEC tournament championship game Sunday, they should be dancing. If not, it'll be the second time in two years Martin's team was snubbed (last year with Missouri State) and the first time in seven years that they miss out.