ACC Tournament 2012: Why Duke Would Be Wise to Look Ahead to NCAA Tourney

After an embarrassing home loss to North Carolina to finish the regular season, common wisdom would suggest that Duke would need a win the the ACC tournament to be a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.

Going a little deeper, though, the conference tournament should be the last thing on the minds of the Blue Devils. 

On balance, winning the ACC tournament would not be a good thing for Duke. There are a few reasons for this.

They Would Exert Too Much Energy With Nothing to Gain

Let's face it—winning a conference tournament is a grind. If Duke is going to reach the finals this week, they will have played three games in three days. For a team that isn't exactly loaded with depth, that is going to be extremely exerting. 

Now, if Duke's spot in the tournament was on the line, or they could really jump up in seeding with a win, then I would be singing a different tune. 

But the fact of the matter is that Duke is not only clearly a tournament team (obviously), they are going to be at worst a two seed. They are 26-5 with losses at Ohio State, at Temple and then at home vs. Florida State, Miami and North Carolina. 

They also beat Florida State and North Carolina on the road and beat Michigan State, Michigan and Kansas on neutral floors. This team clearly has a top-eight resume, which means they should be a two seed at the worst. 

Duke going all-out to win the tournament and a hypothetical No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament just isn't worth it. Their energy would be expended for a small bump, and the stay in the tournament would be short. 

Hypothetically, let's say they win the ACC Tournament and have plenty of energy left for the Big Dance. The No. 1 seed is not exactly a tremendous prize. 

No. 2 Is Better Than No. 1 

I understand this might seem a little hard to grasp, but it's not even a close contest in this case. Follow along. 

In Joe Lunardi of ESPN's most recent Bracketology, North Carolina is a No. 1 seed in the West, while Duke is a No. 2 in the East. Last week, their fortunes were reversed.

Logically, UNC beat Duke, so they got the nod. One would have to assume that if Duke wins the ACC tournament, they would switch again, especially if a win against the Tar Heels was a part of that. 

But let's really break this down. If the current projections hold, both teams are going to start their run to the Final Four in Greensboro, where both would enjoy a nice home-court advantage. But if they both win their first two games, Duke, the No. 2 seed, would have a clear advantage in travel. 

The Tar Heels would have to travel across the country to Phoenix for their Sweet 16, and if they advance, the Elite Eight. Obviously, that makes things more difficult not only on the players, but the fans.

It makes sense that a team will have a more passionate base at the games if they're playing closer to home. 

A No. 2 seed in the East would earn Duke a trip to Boston for the tournament's second weekend. That isn't quite Greensboro or Atlanta (where they would be if they were in the South Bracket), but it's not terribly hard for Duke fans to get up to Boston to see the Blue Devils play. 

For both of these reasons, Duke is better off breaking the cliche in sports. Ideally, you never want to look past your current opponent. Doing so will result in disaster nearly every time it happens. 

In Duke's case, the "disaster" would be at worst neutral compared to where they're at now. For that, they should look ahead as far as they want.

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