Duke Basketball: Keys to Blue Devils' 2012 NCAA Tournament Run

While it has become a cheap cliche to say, the Duke Blue Devils enter the NCAA tournament as one of the favorites to win another national championship. 

This is not Mike Krzyzewski's best team, but he has won a lot of games throughout his career by maximizing the talent that is in place. 

With only two real dominant teams in college basketball this season, who is to say that the Blue Devils can't put together another surprising run, like they did in 2009?

All that you need is one great player who can help the rest of the team, and Austin Rivers isn't afraid of anything. His performance and leadership will determine just how far the Blue Devils are able to go when the tournament kicks off. 

It is going to be an interesting ride for the Blue Devils, and we are here to break down the keys for this team as the NCAA tournament gets ready to start. 

Superstars Who Must Shine

Austin Rivers

Being the most hyped freshman in the country comes with a lot of pressure, and Rivers was able to live up to all of it. 

As a 19-year-old playing under one of the most intense spotlights in all of college basketball, Rivers made himself into a superstar. He had arguably the most clutch shot of the season, against North Carolina on February 5. 

When the eulogy for this Duke team is written, it will be all about how far Rivers was able to take them. 

Mason Plumlee

Perhaps even more than Rivers, Plumlee is the biggest X-factor for Duke this season. They don't have a lot of size on the inside, and what size they do have is not able to matchup with some of the better teams in the country. 

Plumlee has averaged 11 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, but the Blue Devils are going to need more than that if they want to put together six wins in the tournament. 

Guards can carry a team to a title, but size in the paint makes life a lot easier.

Role Player Who Must Emerge

Andre Dawkins

Dawkins is the kind of player that every team wants to have, but there are so few like him around the country. 

He doesn't excel in one specific area. Instead, he is able to do a bunch of little things well. His best asset is his ability to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. 

It has been proven time and again this season that when Dawkins is playing well, the rest of the team follows suit. When he doesn't, it is difficult for the rest of the Blue Devils. 

The offense is going to run through Austin Rivers, but Dawkins has to become more of a focal point in order for them to win in the tournament. 

Offensive Strategy to Watch

Coach K's offensive system has never really changed in his time at Duke. He runs the 3-2 motion offense, which requires a lot of moving parts and athleticism. 

The system is most effective with a dominant low-post player. Mason Plumlee has a good presence in the paint, but teams don't load up the middle to stop him. 

Instead, Austin Rivers has to be the center of the offense. The good news is he has had no problems occupying that role thus far. He does have to be more effective shooting the ball, as well as incorporating more players into the offense. 

The Blue Devils live and die by the three-point shot. If they are hitting them early, they can force teams to change up their defense, which will allow Plumlee to be more dominant down low.

Plumlee has to dominate the block for them to make a deep run, but the shooters on the outside have to be effective to take pressure off him. 

Defensive Strategy to Watch

The Blue Devils have struggled this year when teams have spread the floor and forced them to play man-to-man. They aren't as athletic as a lot elite programs, so they have to play teams that aren't able to run up and down the floor on them.

Coach K is a master strategist, so he can make this team play well enough on defense when they play fast teams; but the deeper the tournament goes, the harder it is going to be for them to keep up. 

Teams like North Carolina and Ohio State have been able to exploit them this season, so it will be incumbent upon them to make the proper adjustments in order to make a deep run. 

They had success against Kansas by slowing the pace of the game, so it is not like they can't do it. The Blue Devils just have to make the right adjustments. 

Biggest NCAA Tournament Hurdle

Duke got a rough draw in the bracket, with Kentucky being the top seed in the South and Baylor right behind the Blue Devils at No. 3.

The Notre Dame-Xavier winner shouldn't be much of a problem, because neither team has the size needed to keep up with Duke. 

Baylor will have the best shot to knock off the Blue Devils early. The Bears are athletic, fast and can spread the floor, which has been the kryptonite for Duke this season. North Carolina, Miami and Florida State laid down the blueprint. 

Last-Second NCAA Tournament Prediction

Duke has made a habit of getting to the Sweet 16 under Coach K. This team should have no problems getting that far, but the magic carpet ride will end there. 

Baylor--or even UNLV, if the Rebels get that far--have the athletes to pick apart the undersized Blue Devils defense. It is possible that Austin Rivers and Seth Curry play the best six games of their lives, but short of that, they will have problems overcoming teams that have size on the inside. 

All you have to do is spread their defense out, and they give up a lot of open shots. Baylor is a matchup nightmare for this team in the Sweet 16. That will be the end of the season for Duke, and possibly Austin Rivers's college career.