2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Pre-Draft Analysis on the All the Top QBs

2012 is already shaping up to be a crazy year of football as the NFL's first regular-season game will be played on Wednesday, September 5th, instead of on its normal Thursday night appearance due to a conflict with President Barack Obama's speech at the Democratic National Convention that evening.

Why is that so crazy? Well, the reason is that it will mark the first time an NFL game will be played on a Wednesday since 1948, when the Los Angeles Rams beat the visiting Detroit Lions, 44-7.

What I'm trying to say here is that anything can and usually does happen between now and the first game of the season, but it never hurts to get a leg up on your fantasy competition when it comes to the rankings.

With that, here are my top-10 QBs for the 2012 fantasy year.

10. Michael Vick

I suppose the writing was on the wall concerning Vick’s plummet from fantasy immortality last season, but only one rushing touchdown? Really? Nobody saw that coming.

With that in mind, Vick will begin the 2012 season as a 32-year-old, overly athletic QB with something to prove—a situation that not only makes him a severely dangerous player to go up against each week (fantasy or otherwise), but quite possibly a major hazard to both your fantasy team and the Eagles.

When Vick is healthy and clicking on all cylinders, he’s the most lethal fantasy player in the entire league (depending on your scoring format, I suppose). However, the key words here are “when healthy,” which hasn’t been the norm for him throughout his career and shouldn’t be expected to change at his age.

That being said, the Eagles still possess a ton of weapons for Vick to throw to when he’s in there, with Jeremy Maclin and the newly franchise-tagged DeSean Jackson at receiver; LeSean McCoy at running back; and the resurgent Brent Celek at tight end.

An arsenal like that should produce a few fantasy week-winning games out of Vick, but I can’t advocate a higher ranking than this based on my belief he’ll last no more than 12 games this season.

9. Matt Schaub

Schaub has a ton of potential within this Texans offense, but there are a lot of "ifs" that need to happen for him to end up any higher than this.

First and foremost, can Andre Johnson be Andre Johnson and stay healthy for a full 16-game season? Will the Texans either draft or sign a better receiver than Jacoby Jones or Kevin Walter to play alongside Johnson? Can Owen Daniels stay healthy and return to form? Can the defense be as dominant as it was last season?

I’ll say this: If those first three questions are answered in the affirmative, Schaub is definitely a top-10 fantasy QB in 2012. As for the final question regarding the defense, it needs to be asked simply because most teams tend to run the ball more when their defense dominates as much as the Texans’ did in 2011—especially when it has a running back like Arian Foster to hand the ball off to.

If the defense falls off or reverts back to its 2010 form (gasp!), the Texans will need Schaub’s arm to keep them in games.

Of all the guys listed here in the top 10, the Texans’ QB is easily the biggest wild card.

8. Matt Ryan

Even though he was predicted by some to join the elite group of QBs last season, you had to know there would be a bit of a learning curve with a rookie wide receiver in the starting lineup.

That said, now that young Julio Jones has his rookie year in the rearview mirror, I expect Ryan and the Falcons to move toward becoming one of the more elite passing teams in the NFL.

In fact, with Roddy White and Jones split out wide, RB Michael Turner in obvious decline and TE Tony Gonzalez returning for one more season, I believe Matty Ice has the most potential of anyone to jump up into the top-five fantasy QBs in 2012.

Numbers close to 4,500 yards and 35 TDs aren’t out of the question. 

7. Cam Newton

Is it possible for Newton to put together better numbers than the ones he put up during his rookie campaign? Has anybody ever asked that question of a quarterback in NFL history?

The answer to that last question is for sure a whopping No. The answer to the former, however, is a little more complicated.

I can’t see a scenario where Newton’s rushing touchdowns actually go up from his record-breaking 14 in 2011. Then again, because the Panthers will no doubt ask him to use his arm more in the red zone, his passing TDs should go up from the 21 he tossed in 2011.

Another plus for Newton is that the odds say Carolina will either draft a nice receiver to complement Steve Smith next season or grab one in free agency.

Whatever happens, with Cam’s superior physical tools and now a year of experience under his belt, I can’t really see his fantasy production taking too much of a hit.

6. Eli Manning

Eli has really grown up over the years and now seems to understand what it takes to be an elite quarterback in the NFL.

Out from under his big brother’s shadow last season, Eli took his game up a notch and was finally able to display some of the finer points of the Manning family gene.

With the Giants' run game in the crapper, Eli did well to carry the team through a tough regular season and on into the playoffs (and an eventual Super Bowl victory), putting up career bests in fantasy numbers along the way.

He never threw for less than 223 yards in any game and joined Dan Marino as the only other QB in history to have three or more 400-yard passing games in a single season (Marino did it in 1984 and 1986).

Whether Mario Manningham returns to the team or not, the Giants will still have one of the better WR corps in 2012 with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz headlining, so no worries there.

WRs Ramses Barden, Jerrel Jernigan, Domenik Hixon and Devin Thomas are good enough combined to make up the difference, so I really don’t expect Manning's numbers to drop off at all from last season.

5. Tony Romo

Will Romo ever make that long-awaited jump into the crowned posse of elite fantasy QBs? He’ll turn 32 years old on April 21st, so the window is certainly closing, but 2012 will mark his best opportunity to do just that.

Assuming the Cowboys bring back WR Laurent Robinson (as they say they will), Romo could have the most lethal WR corps in the entire league to throw to in Robinson, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Throw in TE Jason Witten and a healthy RB combination of DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones and this could be the offense with the most potential in 2012.

The thing is Romo’s physical ability will never keep him from securing a top-five fantasy ranking, as he’s always had the tools to be there.

The real question here is will Romo ever be able to keep his head out of his ass long enough to be crowned?

4. Matthew Stafford

At this point, the only thing holding Stafford back from being a top-five fantasy QB for years to come is injury.

Last season’s numbers were a clear showing of what his potential amounts to when he’s healthy. However, that’s the key now, isn’t it…when he’s healthy?

Otherwise, “Second-Half Staff” has all the makings of a fantasy star. He has elite arm strength, upper-class accuracy, incredible skill-position players, a weak running game, a much improved offensive line, he plays indoors and maybe the most important factor—he has Calvin Johnson.

If Stafford can avoid falling into a Matt Schaub-esque injured-healthy-injured type of pattern, there’s no reason to think he won’t return as a top-five fantasy starter in 2012.

3. Tom Brady

Though the Stetson Man seems to have lost his ability to will his team to postseason victories, Tom's regular-season prowess remains intact.

Despite his age (he’ll be 35 at the start of the 2012 season), Brady did his part to make the NFL more of a pass-oriented league last season by compiling the second-best (2007) fantasy numbers of his career.

His main targets—Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez—are all staying put, so no worries on that front. Plus, if the Pats do what they normally do, Brady will be handed a new weapon to play with at some point during this offseason—one with likely a little more oomph than Ochostinko.

The only thing I can see holding Brady back fantasy-wise in 2012 is if the Patriots improve their pass defense a bunch over the next few months.

If so, Brady could take a slight hit, seeing that the Pats won’t have to put up a ton of points to win each week.

2. Drew Brees

Never before have we seen a yearlong performance like the one Drew Brees put on in 2011. He was the ultimate fantasy assassin for those who drafted him, winning a possible six-to-eight weekly match-ups for his owners all on his own.

The biggest bonus, however, was the work he put in during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17), when he threw for a combined 1,108 yards and 14 TDs—one of the finest three-game stretches in the history of the game.

Not much should change fantasy-wise for the Saints’ 33-year-old QB in 2012, though there could be a bit of an adjustment period, depending on which receiver the team loses: Marques Colston or Robert Meachem.

Luckily for fantasy owners, Brees is the type of QB for which it doesn’t really matter who goes out and runs the patterns for him, but I still expect a few bumps in the road early on in the season.

Either way, draft him with a smile and know you’ll be getting one of the few true difference-makers in fantasy.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is as close to a fantasy machine as you’ll see in today’s game, and as long as he has a full bevy of receivers to throw to there’s no way in hell he drops out of the top two scorers in 2012.

I would say staying healthy matters as well, but Rodgers also happens to be as tough as they come, missing just two games in his first four years as a starter (one each in 2010 and 2011).

The Packers have their five main receivers under contract for next season (Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, James Jones and Randall Cobb), so Rodgers is all set on that front. If they let go of Driver—as it’s been rumored they might—the move would likely be offset by the fact that Jennings will be playing for a new contract.

So basically, the combination of Rodgers’ consistency (first or second in fantasy points each of the last four seasons) and the NFL’s recent transformation into a quarterback league tells me it would be wise to jump on Aaron “it out” early in your fantasy draft this year.

Click Here for the QBs Ranked 11-25

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