Baltimore Ravens: What Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster Deals Mean for Ray Rice

The Baltimore Ravens used the franchise tag on running back Ray Rice as expected so that the star rusher wouldn't hit the free agency market next week. The tag, worth $7.7 million, is likely a precursor to a long-term deal, and the two sides have until mid-July to come to an agreement.

Hot on the heels of Rice being tagged, two high-profile running backs received new contracts from their respective teams.

The Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch received a four-year, $31 million contract that includes $18 million in guaranteed money, while Arian Foster of the Houston Texans was awarded $43.5 million over five years that includes $20.7 million in guaranteed cash and $30 million in the first three years.

It's been reported that Rice's agent, Todd France, would prefer Rice receive a deal akin to the seven-year, $100 million deal given the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson, though ESPN's John Clayton says that's not likely to happen, saying that four years sounds more reasonable of a length.

Lynch and Foster's deals both set a particular tone for the ongoing negotiations with Rice. Though Rice, through his agent, is seeking a Peterson-esque deal, look for the final product to fall somewhere in the higher side of between what Lynch and Foster got in the past days.

Rice is clearly the most important member of the Ravens offense at the moment, which should be reflected in his pay grade. However, as a running back, a high-priced deal is a huge risk to take.

Not only are backs simply worn down with season after season of heavy use, there has been a precedent set in recent years of rushers not giving their all after getting a long-term deal.

While that makes sense—they earned the contract by what they did before receiving it, and now that the payday is there, they don't need to wear themselves down as much—it also makes teams a bit wary of giving huge contracts to players prone to up-and-down performance.

Rice led the league in yards from scrimmage in 2011, which was the best season of his four-year professional career. There's little indication that he won't be able to play just as well in 2012, considering he was one of the few premier backs in the league to end last season relatively injury-free (he didn't miss a game). But signing a 25-year-old back to a seven-year deal like Peterson just doesn't make business sense for the Ravens.

Four or perhaps five years sounds like a good duration for Rice's new contract, with the number trending more toward what Foster received than Lynch. No matter the ultimate value of the deal, I expect Rice to get around $20 million guaranteed and, like many backs, see it heavily front-loaded.

It's clear that Rice has earned an elite payday. Now that Foster and Lynch have gotten their deals, they set a benchmark for running back value for 2012. There's a clear jumping off point for the remaining negotiations, and thus I fully expect Rice to get a new deal before the July 15th deadline.

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