2012 NFL Free Agents: Mario Williams a Lock to Leave Houston Texans?

Houston Texans running back Arian Foster got his big-money contract extension Monday, and it is just a matter of time before defensive end Mario Williams receives a multiyear contract chock-full of guaranteed money.

But will that deal come from the Texans?

It appears as if that scenario is looking less and less likely. 

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Foster agreed to a five-year, $43.5 million contract extension Monday, which eliminated the need for the Texans to franchise-tag the former restricted free agent. While that leaves the option open for Williams to receive the tag, the $22 million it would cost the Texans to tender Williams makes that an unlikely path.

With the Texans already closing in on the $120 million salary cap number, it just doesn't seem feasible that Houston could squeeze in Williams without making significant adjustments to other players and contracts.

In addition to reporting that Williams and the Texans have "yet to engage in serious negotiations," Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk gave three other reasons for the Texans letting Williams walk this offseason.

1. Outside linebackers in a 3-4 defense can be filled with cheaper players, and Florio mentions the Pittsburgh Steelers as an example of a team that has let top edge pass-rushers walk.

2. The Texans were just fine after Williams went out with a season-ending pectoral injury in 2011. Houston finished third against the pass and fourth against the run last season.

3. Houston needs the cap space in case it wants to make a run at Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. It's a long shot, but something to consider once Manning is released on or before March 8.  

The Texans also have to re-sign center Chris Myers, who anchored Houston's running game in 2011 and has emerged as one of the NFL's top players at that position.

If Williams does hit the open market, he'll likely be the most-coveted free agent available. Back in March of 2010, Julius Peppers signed a six-year, $91 million ($42 million guaranteed) contract with the Chicago Bears. While I'm not convinced Williams will command that kind of money, he's likely looking at a contract that will get close to Peppers' huge deal.

Williams is just 27 years old and has 53 career sacks since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Texans in 2005. In this day and age of pass-dominated football, guys like Williams who can get after the quarterback are even more valuable. He also has experience in both the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses.  

Teams such as the New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys are rumored to be landing spots for Williams should he reach free agency, which begins on March 13.

The Texans have until 4:00 p.m. EST today if they want to tag Williams.