Minnesota Vikings: Gauging the Flight Risk for 2012 Free Agents

The Big Dance starts on Tuesday, March 13. Most people reading that sentence would assume I'm talking about the NCAA Basketball Tournament, which starts that day with the two first round games in Dayton, Ohio.

For NFL fanatics however, the big dance that starts this year on the same day is that of NFL free agency. Hundreds of NFL players will hit the open market as both restricted and unrestricted free agents are free to sign with whoever they want (restricted free agents can obviously have offers matched by the team that holds their rights).

The NFL's version of a fantasy football draft will begin in earnest on that Tuesday morning as teams try to improve their rosters while trying to remain somewhat fiscally responsible. (The salary cap heading into the 2012 season is expected to be between $122 and 130 million.)

Across the NFL landscape teams are forced to make crucial decisions on what players they should re-sign, what players they should let go and what players from other teams that they should make offers to. 

Every team is trying to get better. Every team is trying to cut the fat. Every team has to stay under the salary cap or suffer huge fines and even lose draft picks. It's a delicate enterprise that now requires NFL front offices to crunch numbers year round in order to field the best possible teams.

Go and read the headline of this article again, and if you're a Vikings fan, have a good chuckle. Of the 18 free agents the Vikings have on their roster, you could make a pretty good argument that there isn't a flight risk in the bunch. Just go already, goodbye, don't let the door hit you when you leave.

Perhaps one of the few benefits when you're coming off of a 3-13 season.

While winning teams like the New Orleans Saints are facing the unenviable task of having to spread the wealth between Pro Bowlers like Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Carl Nicks, the Vikings do not have a lot of touch decisions to make.

Not only will the Vikings say goodbye to most of their free agents, but they will also cut several other players, including a few starters, in order to free up cap space to make some other additions.

As far as the Vikings free agents go, the toughest decision facing new General Manager RIck Spielman will be whether or not to hand a substantial raise to linebacker Erin Henderson. While it's generally assumed Minnesota will say goodbye to Erin's older brother E.J. (who at 32 years old and having made over $5 million last year, just isn't worth it), the Vikings haven't really tipped their hand when it comes to younger brother Erin. 

Coming off a season that can be called nothing more than "decent," Erin Henderson is probably hoping to get a bump in salary from his $1.2 million in 2011 to somewhere near the $4 million range moving forward. Were his 44 tackles, 1.5 sacks and two forced fumbles worth such a raise?

I expect the Vikings to deem it worth it and re-sign Erin, but it would certainly break no hearts in Minnesota if he signed somewhere else.

Other interesting decisions on the defensive side of the ball for the Vikings will be safety Husain Abdullah and defensive tackle Letroy Guion. Abdullah missed the last half of the 2011 season after suffering a concussion and while his play was nowhere near spectacular, it wasn't horrible either, which is about as good as it got in the Minnesota secondary last year. 

Doctors have given Abdullah the green light to resume playing football and the guess here is that the Vikings will re-sign him.

Minnesota will probably also re-sign Guion as well. Again, he was mediocre at best, but certainly outplayed Fred Evans and Remi Ayodele and is probably the Vikings' best bet to start next to Kevin Williams next year.

Over on offense the Vikings will have to make decisions on tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and receiver Devin Aromashodu. Shiancoe has been the good warrior for Minnesota, but was nearly invisible last season and would certainly have to agree to a pay cut from his $2.5 million salary to be back in purple. The Vikings should give the reigns at tight end to Kyle Rudolph and offer Shiancoe a backup's salary.

As far as Aromashodu goes, he still carries that "well, there could be something there" tag with him, but now six years into his career, it's clear he'll never be more than a fourth or fifth receiver. If he wants to be paid any more than that, you say goodbye faster than you do to a telemarketer. 

Look for the Vikings to also go ahead and cut veterans Steve Hutchinson, Cedric Griffin, Anthony Herrera and Remi Ayodele, none of whom can nearly play to the level that they are currently being paid at. It would be nice if Hutchinson would be willing to restructure his deal and spend a final year helping groom the younger members on the line, but that will be up to him.

As far as the rest of the Vikings free agents go, consider them as you would the 16th seeds in that other "big dance," thanks for coming, see you later.