Austin Rivers: Duke Star Will Be Top 5 Pick in 2012 NBA Draft

Austin Rivers is coming into his own, and his maturation is coming at the right time. Even with the Blue Devils' blowout loss to North Carolina in the regular season finale, Rivers still has had a solid month of basketball.

The upcoming games are high profile, and NBA scouts are out in force, prepping for their selections in the June draft. As of now, Rivers has to be one of the hottest names of all possible early entrants and seniors.

Going into the postseason, Rivers has solidified himself as the Blue Devils' go-to man. In February he had four 20-point performances, and was trusted to take the last-second shot to hand the Tar Heels a crushing defeat in Chapel Hill.

Rivers' game is taking the next step, and as we head into the conference tournaments and NCAA tournament, the spotlight will be on him.

Rivers raised his scoring average from 14 per game from November through January to 18 per game in February. The four 20-point performances were as many as he had the rest of the season combined. 

Among the most highly regarded guard prospects in the country, Rivers is in the top in one area of extreme importance: pure scoring.

As a isolation perimeter scoring threat, Rivers has no rival in the college game. We still haven't seen the full gamut of his scoring potential, because he has to curtail his aggressiveness to fit the system.

Rivers has a scorer's mentality, and the skills to have huge scoring nights. He is at his best in isolation situations, and these are far more prevalent on the NBA level. Scouts know this, and that will play a major factor in their evaluation of him.

His five free-throw attempts per game are a big indication of his off-the-dribble game. All big-time scorers get to the line, and this number will increase as he becomes more mature.

He needs to improve upon his 64 percent foul shooting, but that can certainly come with repetition and work ethic, which doesn't appear to be a problem.

Guards like Jeremy Lamb do not have the scorer's mentality that Rivers possesses. Lamb is a great athlete with great length, but he doesn't project as a potential number one scorer like Rivers. That is to me what separates Rivers from the rest of the guards in the country.

Rivers has proven you can put the ball in his hands at the end of a game, and go make a play. In the NBA, that skill is very rare and coveted.

When a player has that skill, you can live with other deficiencies, as Rivers' defense has been criticized by many. Jay Bilas of ESPN.com offer this analysis of Austin Rivers:

"

Austin Rivers is a tremendous ball-handler and shooter, but he's not as good of a defender or a true point guard as he could be.

"

This is certainly a valid point, but it isn't much different than the criticism Stephan Curry received coming out of Davidson. That said, Rivers is bigger and more athletic than Curry, and in my opinion, a better overall prospect at this same point in both their careers.

Though we haven't seen a lot of this type of explosion this season from Rivers, remember, this is the type of athlete he is.

One key for Rivers would be to match him with a team that already has a big point guard. Rivers can play both positions, but he will be at his best as a SG. At 6'3", he's a bit undersized, but if his backcourt mate is 6'4", a team can avoid mismatches on defense.

The worse thing that could happen is for a team to try to pigeonhole him into the point guard spot. He isn't a point guard, but he does need to handle it in the half court with regularity. 

There are teams that figure to be selecting in the top five picks of the draft that offer this type of scenario for Rivers.

Washington has John Wall at point guard; he's 6'4" with blazing speed, but he isn't a great shooter or scorer. He is at his best when he runs an offense, occasional dribble penetration and leads the team in transition.

In the half court, especially late in games, the Wizards don't have a go-to guy. Right now, that would be Nick Young, but Rivers represents an upgrade. Young's contract is up at the end of this year, and Rivers could be drafted and start in the same backcourt with Wall.

If the Wizards get the first or second pick in the draft, they could even trade back to a lower spot in the top five and still land Rivers while adding another asset.

It's a great fit for him.

However the final draft order shakes out, expect Rivers named to be called very early, provided he does come out, as I expect he will.

I predict Rivers will have a strong postseason for Duke, and that momentum will create a push for him to declare. Rivers is made for the NBA, and I expect him to answer the call in June.