NCAA Bracket 2012 Predictions: 4 Reasons Duke Blue Devils Will Fail Miserably

The Duke Blue Devils won't win the national championship this season. They won't even make the Final Four and may be lucky to even reach the Sweet 16.

I know they went 26-5 in the regular season and beat several ranked teams throughout the year. I know the great history of the program and know they have one of the greatest head coaches of all-time in Mike Krzyzewski. But with every great team, there are weaknesses and those will eventually catch up to the Blue Devils and end their tournament run in disappointing fashion.

This may be one of the more talented teams in the country, but they will not be one of the last teams in the tournament.

Now that I got your attention with the title, let's explain why Duke will fail miserably in this year's tournament.

Subpar Free-Throw Percentage

If you've read some of my other work on college basketball, you'll know that I absolutely hate teams that can't shoot free throws well. Teams like this don't last very long in the tournament, and I do whatever I can to make sure I avoid penciling them in for a deep run. 

Too many games come down to free throws, and the team that is poor at shooting them are the ones that usually end up losing the game.

With that said, Duke shoots 69.4 percent from the line, which means that there are 161 teams that shoot a higher percentage.

Only two players on the roster shoot 80 percent or better, the rest are 76 percent or below. Those statistics are actually very surprising considering this is such a great shooting team.

If you’re going to have Duke making a nice run in this year’s tournament, hopefully for you the game doesn’t come down to the wire.

Defense

Sure, Dukes offense is one of the best in the country as they average almost 79 points per game, but the defense isn't nearly as great. The Blue Devils allow 69.1 points per contest, which is 226th in the country, and allow opponents to shoot 47.7 percent from the field on two-point field goals.

Duke has allowed over 70 points a total of 15 times in the regular season, which just simply isn't going to get it done in the tournament.

Ohio State dropped 85 points on this team and North Carolina scored over 80 in both meetings, and those are two teams they'll obviously have to beat if they expect to move on in the tournament.

There have been too many teams this year that have been able to do whatever they want offensively on the Blue Devils and they have absolutely no answer for it.

If Duke can't tighten up on the defensive end they won't last very long in the tournament. I doubt they'll be able to make a great improvement in such a short amount of time. 

Austin Rivers

Now I love Austin Rivers. I love his cockiness, his confidence and the way he’s able to take over games when the Blue Devils are in a shooting slump. But despite the fact that he’s not a great defender, at times he seems to force shots and lets the confidence get to his head a bit too much.

It’s great for a player to believe in himself, but he’ll go on a streak at times where he’s the only one shooting the ball and not even attempting to pass it. Sure, he averages 15.3 points per game, which is the most on the team. But he also shoots the most of anyone on the team by far with 11.6 shots per game, which is at least four more shots than anyone else on the team.

He also leads the team with 2.35 turnovers a game.

I really don’t want to make it seem like I’m bashing the freshman guard, because I really like his game, but he still has to mature. The tournament isn’t going to be won by one player—this is a marathon that requires a whole team to get the job done.

If there is a game where Rivers becomes a little too selfish and careless with the ball, it may cause Duke to be eliminated from the tournament.

Jump Shots

Duke scores a lot of points, but relies heavily on the jump shot. A total of 38 percent of their field-goal attempts come beyond the three-point line as they attempt a total of 21.5 threes a game. That's the 51st most in the entire country.

Duke doesn't have much of a post-game beyond Mason Plumlee and Miles Plumlee, and that's extremely scary heading into the tournament. The majority of the top teams in the tournament have at least one dominant big man that can produce in the paint.

Duke on the other hand relies on jump shooters like Austin Rivers and Seth Curry to win games. Shots don't fall, Duke will likely lose.

In four of the five losses, Duke either shot below 40 percent from the field or below 30 percent from beyond the arc.

You live by the jump shot, you die by the jump shot. I rather go with a team that's more versatile and can win games in a variety of different ways.

For your printable bracket for the 2012 NCAA tournament, click here.