San Jose Sharks: Making Sense of Newly Added Forward Depth

Five weeks ago, I wrote an article titled "San Jose Sharks' Forward Depth Is Better Than Ever." This is a claim that I'm willing to stand by.

The team's third line of Jamie McGinn, Michal Handzus and Torrey Mitchell were all plus-players five-on-five, bringing smart decisions, scoring big goals and playing great defense. They all contributed to the penalty kill as well, although that unit struggled.

The fourth line at the time consisted of Andrew Desjardins, Andrew Murray and Brad Winchester. All three brought a combination of smarts, physicality and youthful exuberance that this team had lacked in years past.

That was mid-January. The Sharks were 11-3-2 in their most recent 16 games, and the bottom two lines were a big reason why.

Since then, the team has struggled mightily. They are 7-9-2, and have fallen from third to seventh in the Western Conference. During this funk, some problems became apparent in the Sharks bottom six.

San Jose is a puck-possession team in every sense of the term. Their strategy is to possess the puck more often, sustain longer attacks and put more shots on goal than their opposition. The top two lines have been executing this strategy well all season long, while the bottom two lines struggled to keep up.

While the old bottom six had made a positive impact five-on-five and scored timely goals all year, their style of play clashed with the team strategy, which made it very difficult to play complete periods and complete games.

This was an obvious problem for San Jose all season, but the reason wasn't as apparent. Everyone involved with and around this team saw that shift to shift and period to period, the Sharks could not seem to play their game consistently.

The first key to playing a puck-possession game is winning draws. While the top two lines had elite faceoff guys in Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton and Logan Couture, the bottom six was stuck with Michal Handzus and Andrew Desjardins, who have each hovered around 50 percent all year.

So Doug Wilson went out and acquired Dominic Moore from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Moore brings a lot of positives to the lineup—speed, playoff success, scoring ability—but first and foremost, he brings elite faceoff skills to the bottom six.

Another big key to playing the puck-possession strategy successfully is the ability to forecheck and backcheck relentlessly. After trading for Moore, it became apparent that San Jose's bottom six still lacked a sufficient amount of either of these skills. While Moore's speed and good stick marginally helped the forecheck, Wilson realized that he needed to make a more drastic move.

Jamie McGinn was traded on deadline day for T.J. Galiardi and Daniel Winnik. It was tough to immediately understand what this deal was all about—McGinn had more goals and points than either of them, and almost as many hits as the two of them combined. Winnik may improve the penalty kill, but is that really it?

Well, no. Deeper statistical analysis shows that Galiardi and Winnik both bring this team something that not only meshes with their game plan, but something that they were gravely lacking: takeaway-giveaway ratio.

Logan Couture is adored by all Sharks fans for his hard skating, tenacity on the puck and incredible nose for the back of the net. But some fans who watch closely say that Couture's takeaway-to-giveaway ratio is equally as impressive as his goal totals. Couture has 49 takeaways and 25 giveaways. His 2-1 ratio is almost twice as good as any other Shark. 

Besides Galiardi and Winnik, that is. Galiardi has 42 takeaways to only 13 giveaways this year, while Winnik has 47 and 15.

Not only do those ratios look like typos next to the rest of the team, but just the sheer takeaway totals place these two at fourth and fifth on the team, behind Thornton, Pavelski and Couture.They are 19th and 20th on the team in giveaways.

With these two likely to be spread out between the third and fourth lines, the Sharks suddenly go from being a team with two excellent forechecking and backchecking lines to potentially four, and they add a very dangerous new element to their team.

The ability to roll four lines that will do essentially the same things—win faceoffs, steal the puck, keep the puck and get pucks to the net—will greatly help this team find their rhythm early in games, and keep playing their style every time they roll their lines. This will increase the pressure on their opposition, and in turn help San Jose later in games.

Fitting In

OK, so Moore, Galiard, and Winnik will help San Jose play their style more effectively. But these are still three new players who will take up three new roster spots. Since McGinn was the only NHL player moved for these guys, fitting all three into the lineup will require some tough decisions.

San Jose's current depth forwards vying for a job are as follows: Handzus, Mitchell, Desjardins, Winchester, Galiardi, Winnik, Moore, Benn Ferriero and Tommy Wingels. That's nine guys competing for six spots.

The third line will likely feature Handzus, Mitchell and Winnik. Galiardi's blazing speed is not necessary next to Mitchell's, even though he provides more offense than Winnik.

The loss of McGinn greatly diminishes this line's offensive punch. However, Mitchell caught fire down the stretch last season as part of a reworked third line, and the shakeup and a return to being the No. 1 scoring option could spark a similar hot streak.

The fourth line will almost certainly feature Winchester and Galiardi, and that's where it really gets interesting.

It should be noted that Martin Havlat's injury has allowed for Desjardins, Ferriero and Wingels to alternate skating with the second line over the last couple months. Until Havlat returns, this will continue. But once he does—assuming everyone else stays healthy—at least two of these three quality forwards will be healthy scratches.

I say at least two because it will likely be all three. Moore would provide the line with the best faceoff guy possible, and his speed and playoff success make him the best man for the job resume-wise.

While Desjardins, Ferriero and Wingels may not enjoy being injury replacements this postseason, San Jose should be thrilled to have these guys as options. Wingels can provide physicality should the team get soft. Desjardins can fill in for literally any injured forward on any line due to his ability to play center or wing, his size and his decent scoring ability.

Ferriero is simply a clutch goal scorer, and a great top-six injury replacement option.

Where's the Edge?

With these three new forwards making up half of San Jose's bottom six, it's important to take a step back and look at who these guys are truly displacing, and if their addition truly makes sense.

Winnik replaces McGinn on the third line and penalty kill. The third line will lose considerable offensive punch and physicality, but gain a defensive presence and improve greatly as a puck-possession line. While this may equal a slight drop-off in terms of the line's productivity, a line that meshes with the team's overall style is more likely to get good chances come playoff time, when the top lines are checked tighter.

The penalty kill will be much improved, as Winnik instantly becomes a key piece of the first unit.

Moore replaces Desjardins on the fourth line, dramatically improving the line's faceoff numbers, speed and experience. The only downside is the loss of hits, but that is made up for by the addition of Galiardi. He improves the line's speed, goal-scoring ability and puck-possession numbers, whether you consider him a replacement for Jim Vandermeer, John McCarthy or Andrew Murray.

Now it's time for everyone to get healthy so that these projected lineups can become real possibilities. How exciting!