UFC on FX 2: Forecasting Knockout, Submission and Fight of the Night

UFC on FX 2 is set to go down March 3, from Sydney, Australia (it airs March 2 in North America due to time difference).

The event will be capped off by a welterweight showdown between perennial top contenders Thiago Alves and Martin Kampmann.

Beyond the headliner, the show from the Land Down Under will feature the first round of the UFC Flyweight Champion Grad Prix, as well as an additional eight contests.

Here, we will examine which bouts are most likely to receive Fight of the Night honors, as well as which fighters have the best chance at bringing home the Knockout of the Night and Submission of the Night bonuses.

Knockout of the Night

Top Three Candidates:

Thiago Alves

The "Pitbull" is one of the most deadly strikers in the welterweight division, though he will be in tough against Martin Kampann, a good striker in this own right.

Despite the Dutchman's kickboxing background, three of Kampann's five losses have come via KO or TKO. We may see that number jump after his date his Alves.

Shawn Jordan

The "Savage" is a product of Jackson's Mixed Martial Arts, which means he will be entering his fight with England's Oli Thompson with a game plan.

Given Thompson's prowess on the mat and Jordan's clear advantage on the feet, that game plan will be to keep the bout standing. 

This match is a classic example of striker versus grappler. If the grappler, Thompson, fails to bring the fight to the mat, it will be but a matter of time before he is sprawled out on it.  

James Te Huna

One of Australia's most heralded combatants, Te Huna will enter what should be a wild slug-fest against Aaron Rosa.

Both men are more than willing to eat a punch to give one, but few can stand up to many of Te Huna's bombs.

Rosa has an iron chin, but Te Huna has some serious KO power.

Prediction:

James Te Huna. 

After succumbing to Joey Beltran's beating in the third round of his UFC debut, Rosa dropped to light heavyweight. He looked good in his divisional entry against Matt Lucas, but he throws too many wild punches to survive a full 15 minutes with Te Huna. 

Submission of the Night

Top Three Candidates:

Cole Miller  

Miller will be seeking to exact a measure of revenge against Steven Siler, who defeated Cole's younger bother, Micah, enroute to securing himself a spot on the last season of The Ultimate Fighter.

The strength of both combatants lies in their groundwork, but a noticeable edge lies with Miller, who has racked up 13 submissions in 18 wins. Added to that, Siler is susceptible to neck-based submissions.

This one has triangle written all over it.

Kyle Noke

The TUF alum will be taking on UFC newcomer Andrew Craig in his native Australia.

Noke has compiled two submission wins in four UFC contests and is one of the most active ground fighters on the ZUFFA roster.

Craig is a strong wrestler but has used that skill offensively during his young career, which suggests this fight is going to the mat one way or the other.

Regardless of whether he is on the top or bottom, Noke has the potential to end it on the ground. 

Mackens Semerzier

Semerzier burst onto the MMA scene in 2009 by submitting world class jiu-jitsu practitioner, Wagnney Fabiano.

While this win afforded the former WEC fighter no small degree of hype, he has struggled to capitalize on his initial success, having gone 1-3 in four bouts since.

His opponent, Daniel Pineda, has 10 submission wins of his own but also counts six submission defeats against his record. The combined 16 decisions by submission suggests that Pineda likes fighting on the ground.

If he tries to do so against Semerzier, he will be tapping. 

Prediction:

Cole Miller.

Miller will almost certainly win via submission in this fight.

The only thing preventing him from being a lock as Submission of the Night winner is that his submission may come easy enough that it looks unimpressive.

Also, it might be difficult because Miller is on a card stacked with submission machines like Noke, Semerzier, Joseph Benavidez, Anthony Perosh, T.J. Waldburger and Oli Thompson, any of whom could swoop in and claim the accolade. 

Still, he is my pick to take home Submission of the Night honors.

Fight of the Night

Top Three Candidates:

Joseph Benavidez - Yasuhiro Urushitani

The little guys always perform don't they?

Well, things just got littler than ever before in the UFC, so expect some balls-to-the-wall action on this card.

Benavidez and Urushitani are two guys that are comfortable fighting anywhere, though the latter most certainly likes to keep it standing. Expect a terrific mix of high level stand-up, lightning quick take downs and masterful groundwork in this one.

The one variable that may take some of the luster out of this flyweight bout is that Benavidez may be able to pull off a submission before things really get going. If he is unable, just sit back and enjoy.

Demetrious Johnson - Ian McCall

This bout has similar potential to the one mentioned above but may be a little more ground oriented.

Both combatants are capable strikers but have sound wrestling games, which each will look to control the fight with.

For anyone who has not seen McCall in action, get ready for a treat.

He is the embodiment of the high-energy, fast-paced fighting style that characterizes the lighter weight classes. Couple that with Johnson's own frantic pace, and this one should be a barn burner.

Aaron Rosa - James Te Huna

Both of these guys are aggressive strikers that don't mind being in a brawl. 

The obvious foil to this fight turning into an epic is the potential for a quick knockout. Both guys are capable of splaying the other out, despite both having a solid chin.

The Pick:

Aaron Rosa - James Te Huna.

I predict a knockout victory for James Te Huna, but I believe that Rosa has what it takes to survive at least one and a half rounds. 

Though most Fight of the Night winners last at least three rounds, the inclination most MMA fans hold towards the stand-up element of the sport will make this a real crowd pleaser, even if it only lasts eight or nine minutes.