2012 NFL Mock Draft: Full First Round Analysis After the Combine

We have entered mock draft purgatory—that time between the NFL Scouting Combine and free agency, a time to offer up a combine-skewed mock draft while we await player movement.

There are changes in this mock from its pre-combine version. Few players significantly helped or hurt themselves, but the striking differences were caused by slight changes--one player's movement can cascade into many changes elsewhere.

1. Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Previous Pick: Same

Nothing has changed. Everything is the same.

Despite the speculation that Robert Griffin III will overtake Luck as the No. 1 overall pick—and Griffin's blazing 40-yard-dash time—there is no doubt the former Stanford quarterback is going to be a Colt.

Even though Griffin had a fantastic combine, Luck cemented himself as the top pick by having a great one as well. He showed off his athleticism to the point where some were comparing him to Cam Newton.

Peyton Manning and Jim Irsay continue inching closer to consummating their divorce, and each passing day brings the franchise their quarterback of the future. It seems luck runs high in Indy like it did in Green Bay.

2. Cleveland Browns (from St. Louis Rams)

Pick: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Previous Pick: Same

The Rams have officially put this pick on the market, all but making a trade certain.

Cleveland, Washington, Miami and an unnamed suitor are all in play for this pick, but Cleveland has the most ammunition to move up with two 2012 first-round picks to burn. 

Even though there may be concerns about Griffin's anticipation as a thrower, his draft stock is at its peak after impressing at the combine. Despite not throwing (and drawing some flak for it), he burned the 40-yard dash with the second-best mark of all time, a 4.41. 

Questions about his height were also laid to rest as he measured in slightly above his listed height of 6'2". 

St. Louis is going to net a ransom fit for a franchise quarterback here, and Cleveland needs to cash in their chips to get that elusive team centerpiece.

3. Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Previous Pick: Same

The former Trojan removed all doubt that he is the top offensive lineman in the draft by excelling at the combine.

Kalil has a football pedigree—his brother Ryan was selected by Carolina in 2007, and his father played in the USFL—and it shows. The 6'6", 306-pound behemoth carries his weight well, and he is highly athletic as a result.

Left tackle is a big need for Minnesota. Even though Rick Spielman rarely drafts offensive linemen in the first round—Vernon Carey is the only one in his time as a general manager, with the Dolphins—Kalil makes too much sense to pass up.

4. St. Louis Rams (from Cleveland)

Pick: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

Previous Pick: Riley Reiff, OT/OG, Iowa

The Rams have needs in many places, cornerback included. With Claiborne being the best player available, they eschew needs at receiver and offensive tackle to bolster their secondary.

In the draft's first deviation from its pre-combine incarnation, Riley Reiff is replaced with Claiborne. Reiff was a bit of a reach here, and a poor combine showing and whispers that he would be better suited for guard at the next level have dropped his stock.

The Rams need a franchise offensive tackle, and Matt Kalil is the only one worth drafting in the top five. Their consolation prize is a fantastic cornerback.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Previous Pick: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

The Bucs really wanted Claiborne here, but the Rams force their hand after taking the talented cornerback. Picking a running back this high may be a bit quixotic in today's NFL, but Tampa Bay almost has no choice with the Alabama product being pegged at the top of their board.

It may seem the former Crimson Tide tailback was a big riser here—he was picked 17th in the first iteration of this draft—but this goes to show how much a single pick can affect the draft. The Rams taking Claiborne instead of Reiff really affected several other landing spots.

Richardson is a top 5 talent in this draft, and Tampa Bay is left with either the option of taking their best player available or reaching for the likes of Dre Kirkpatrick at a position of need.

They should opt to take Richardson here, who will make a great tandem with LeGarrette Blount and eventually become their every-down back.

6. Washington Redskins

Pick: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Previous Pick: Same

Not much has changed here with Tannehill not participating in the combine due to a broken foot. His pro day is well anticipated on March 29th.

The Redskins need a quarterback, and the former Aggie is their best shot at this point. It may be a bit of a reach, but Jake Locker was taken eighth last year and some (including Mike Mayock) say Tannehill is a better prospect than Locker.

Washington has been starved for a quarterback for years, and they may not be able to pass up Tannehill if Cleveland out-guns them for RGIII. 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

Previous Pick: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Drafting the purportedly capricious defensive end might be dangerous in the top ten, but he represents huge upside at a position of need for the Jaguars.

They also have a dire need at wide receiver, hence their pick of Wright in the last version of this draft. Wright did not blow the doors off the combine like he was expected to, however, and the Jaguars will likely be active in free agency to fill the need at that position. 

Despite his perceived motivational and motor issues, Coples is a 6'6", 281-pound, athletic and disruptive freak of nature. He quietly had a great combine to go along with a good Senior Bowl, solidifying himself at the top end of this draft.

8. Miami Dolphins

Pick: Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE, South Carolina

Previous Pick: Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

In a small stroke of good fortune, the Dolphins won their coin toss with Carolina for the eighth pick. The cruel irony is that the Dolphins lose out on the top tier talent at their positions of need, with the Jaguars nabbing Coples. This leaves them plenty to choose from the next tier at several positions, and Ingram fills the slot.

The problem Jeff Ireland might have with this pick is that he is just under 6'2". Ingram is not terribly big for a pass rusher, but he has plenty of leverage being 278 pounds. His short arms are a bit of a concern as well. 

In fact, Ingram's size might make him perfect for the hybrid defense Kevin Coyle plans to run. His good combine and Coples' early selection boosts Ingram's stock just enough to get him into the top ten.

9. Carolina Panthers

Pick: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Previous Pick: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Carolina has its pick of the litter at wide receiver, unlike last time when Kendall Wright was gone. Instead of taking Blackmon, though, the Panthers opt to go with Floyd here, who had a fantastic combine.

Were it not for Floyd's off-field issues, it is likely his draft stock would have started much closer to Blackmon's. All things being equal, Floyd tips the balance in his favor with his great combination of size (6'3") and speed (4.41 40), though some question Floyd's in-game speed.

The Panthers could use a defensive tackle, but taking their top receiver outweighs over-drafting a defensive tackle, especially because it is a deep class at the position.

10. Buffalo Bills

Pick: Courtney Upshaw, OLB/DE, Alabama

Previous Pick: Same

Even though the Bills are switching back to a 4-3, Upshaw makes a lot of sense for Dave Wannstedt's defense.

Upshaw is well suited to play outside linebacker and defensive end, though his 6'1" size falls short of ideal. Buffalo needs a pass rusher on the outside of Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus, however, and Coples and Ingram are off the table.

In the end, the talented linebacker represents talent the Bills cannot pass up with the 10th pick. They may be looking to go with an offensive lineman here, but their board should have Upshaw at the top.

11. Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

Previous Pick: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

A mumble arose as the 6'3", 346-pound mountain rumbled 40 yards with a unofficial 4.84 time. Pairing that with an impressive 40 225-pound bench press reps made Dontari Poe a combine star, propelling him here to the Chiefs, who need a nose tackle.

Mike Adams, in contrast, proved he is as fluffy as his scouting reports fear, knocking him out of this draft spot and possibly into the late first round.

Romeo Crennel and the Chiefs need a nose tackle to anchor their front seven. The addition of Poe, along with another free agent move or two, could take this defensive unit from good to elite.

12. Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

Previous Pick: Same

While slotting Perry here before the combine may have been a bit of a reach, his fantastic performance makes this much more of a possibility.

This pick goes beyond the USC connection with Pete Carroll; Perry represents the speed-rush sack artist that the Seahawks need opposite Chris Clemons.

13. Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Riley Reiff, OT/OG, Iowa

Previous Pick: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

Reiff's stock took a bit of a tumble at the combine, to the point where some teams left wondering if he should be moved inside to guard.

The big Iowa product has drawn some Robert Gallery comparisons, though those have more to do with his school and position more than skill and temperament. The fact is that Reiff's short arms and susceptibility to the bull rush can be a problem at the next level. At the very least, the combine proved that nobody else comes close to Matt Kalil.

Whereas the Rams reached a bit in taking him with the fourth pick in the first version of this draft, this landing spot is more in line with his value. Arizona needs help on the offensive line, and Reiff represents good value for them at this spot.

14. Dallas Cowboys

Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Previous Pick: Same

Another combine star, Kirkpatrick finds himself in the same slot because of team needs more than anything else. It is quite feasible that he squeaks into the top ten, but the Cowboys will not complain if he lands here.

Kirkpatrick was vital to a top-ranked Alabama pass defense, and he had a great combine to boot. Enough said? Enough said. 

David DeCastro is another possibility here as the Cowboys could use an offensive guard as well. But Kirkpatrick will help shore up a shoddy secondary behind a great front seven.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

Previous Pick: Same

Tackling. Machine.

Kuechly averaged almost 16 tackles per game last season in college, by far leading the nation. The fearsome linebacker dominated the combine, possibly vaulting him into the top ten when all is said and done.

For now, though, the Eagles catch a break, landing the middle linebacker they sorely need on defense.

Some mock drafts have Philadelphia taking a receiver here, which is certainly possible. DeSean Jackson was slapped with the franchise tag, though, meaning receiver is less of a priority for now.

16. New York Jets

Pick: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

Previous Pick: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina

The Jets need help at pass rush, hence the previous pick of Melvin Ingram, but DeCastro's availability here becomes a boon for New York after Ingram gets snapped up by the Dolphins. 

DeCastro's slight slide here is circumstantial—a couple of players leapfrogged him, not the other way around. Again, were it not a general principle to avoid drafting a guard in the top ten, the former Cardinal would get strong consideration that high.

The big guard represents a top-five talent in the draft, but the practice of avoiding guards too early causes the stud to drop into New York's laps.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)

Pick: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

Previous Pick: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

One guy who really helped himself at the combine is Gilmore, who solidified himself as a first-round pick.

At 6'0", Gilmore has good size for the position, and his 4.40 time in the 40 showcased his speed. The former Gamecock looked good in positional drills.

The Bengals lose out on Trent Richardson here. Yes, he was picked way back at No. 5, but had the Rams not taken Claiborne fourth this time around, Richardson could fall to here. Rather than chancing it, they play it safe and draft their best cornerback available here instead of 21st.

18. San Diego Chargers

Pick: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Previous Pick: Same

I have stared at this pick for a while, several times, without coming up with much to say.

Martin makes too much sense for the Chargers here. Andrew Luck's blindside guardian calls himself the best in the draft. While that may be a stretch, he is certainly good enough to become a franchise left tackle.

Philip Rivers got much better after San Diego snapped up Jared Gaither last season. Coincidence? Absolutely not. 

19. Chicago Bears

Pick: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Previous Pick: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Bears fans might be gleeful come draft day if Blackmon slides this far down to them. The fact remains that Marty Booker was the last Bear to have a 1,000-yard season—they have been few and far between over the past 25 years.

He may not possess the size and speed combination of Calvin Johnson or even Dez Bryant, but the former Cowboy is still a solid first-round pick. Jay Cutler could use an upgrade to his wide receiving corps.

Blackmon was already on a bit of thin ice going into the combine, and he chose not to perform in some drills. While some continue to say he is a top-five pick, falling this far is not unrealistic.

20. Tennessee Titans

Pick: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois

Previous Pick: Same

Tennessee needs a pass-rusher, and Mercilus is the last, best one available in the first round.

The nation's leading sack man had a good combine, likely locking him into the first round.

His two career starts before last year's 16-sack explosion may ultimately dog his draft stock, however. The specter of a one-year wonder looms over Mercilus, but the Titans cannot pass him up at this stage.

21. Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Cordy Glenn, OG/OT, Georgia

Previous Pick: Same

Glenn was so impressive at the combine that he garnered some buzz as a potential offensive tackle in the NFL.

Having addressed the cornerback position, the Bengals can go multiple ways here. While David Wilson and Lamar Miller are enticing running backs, winning in the trenches is a higher priority.

The former Bulldog might be talked about as a top-15 pick were it not for motivational issues plaguing his scouting report, similar to Quinton Coples'. He does not possess a "mean streak," which will cause teams to shy away from him early.

22. St. Louis Rams (from Atlanta Via Cleveland)

Pick: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Previous Pick: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Wes Welker. Antonio Brown. Arian Foster. These are just a few names with "poor" 40 yard dash times in combines of yesteryear.

The combine was not a good look on Wright, who was supposed to perform well. Other than measuring in at his listed height of 5'10"—apparently Baylor does not feel the need to inflate their players' measurables—the speedy receiver had a disappointing weekend.

His main issue, from a perception standpoint, is the 4.61 official time he ran in the 40. While there may be some controversy about whether official times are accurate or not, he was expected to run in the 4.3s. A poor performance instantly deflated his draft stock, even though the tape shows off Wright's football skills.

Still, Wright's lofty draft status from the pre-combine version of this mock was partially predicated on a great combine. His stock did not take a tumble here—rather, it is where it should have been all along.

23. Detroit Lions

Pick: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

Previous Pick: Same

It bears repeating: Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns in Week 17 against the Lions in a game Detroit badly wanted to win. Ouch.

Jenkins had an excellent combine, assuring himself a spot in the first round if his rehabilitated off-the-field image stays intact.

The 5'10" cornerback makes up for his lack of height with his athleticism. The Lions, much like the Cowboys, need secondary help to complement their front seven. This is a great match.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama

Previous Pick: Same

Not only are Larry Foote and James Farrior turning into winter chickens, one or both could be cap casualties as Pittsburgh desperately tries to get under the salary cap. This creates a major need at inside linebacker, and Hightower fits the bill perfectly.

Hightower was the field general for Nick Saban's top-ranked Alabama defense, one that played a 3-4. That alone makes him a great candidate for this pick. The only real problem with Hightower is his poor coverage skill, but everything else adds up for the Steelers here.

The Steelers just announced Hines Ward's release, and Mike Wallace might escape via free agency. Should the Steelers find themselves short on receivers come draft day, this pick could wind up being a surprise.

25. Denver Broncos

Pick: Fletcher Cox, DT/DE, Mississippi State

Previous Pick: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Cox had a fantastic combine, as some expected, increasing his draft stock in the process. 

This fills a big position of need for the Broncos, who somewhat puzzlingly did not draft a defensive tackle in last year's draft.

The former Bulldog may not be here this late if some mock drafts are any indication, but less need at defensive tackle in the middle of the first round allows him to fall to the Broncos here.

26. Houston Texans

Pick: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Previous Pick: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

Sadly, for the Texans, Poe's incredible combine likely pushes him too far up draft boards to fall to them. Houston gets a nice consolation prize in Jeffery this time around, however.

Andre Johnson needs a legitimate threat opposite him at wide receiver to command more defensive attention. Jeffery is a big receiver with excellent hands. 

He did not participate in certain events at the combine, much like Blackmon. He is still a good bet to go in the first round, though, and the Texans are a good fit here.

27. New England Patriots

Pick: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Previous Pick: Michael Brockers, DT/DE, LSU

New England selected Barron with the 31st pick in the previous mock, but positional need and Brockers' lukewarm combine performance have caused the Patriots to take the Alabama product a bit earlier in this mock version.

The Patriots need a safety in a bad way, and Barron fits too well here for them. The hard hitter will fill the strong safety position nicely opposite Patrick Chung.

28. Green Bay Packers

Pick: Michael Brockers, DT/DE, LSU

Previous Pick: Fletcher Cox, DT/DE, Mississippi State

With Green Bay's primary targets in Fletcher Cox and Mark Barron swiped out from under them, the Packers go with the best player available on their board.

Jarius Wynn and Ryan Pickett were not exactly stalwarts at defensive end for Green Bay, combining for three sacks and 11 quarterback pressures according to Pro Football Focus. 

With an offense humming to a good tune conducted by Aaron Rodgers, expect the Packers to focus on defense in the draft. 

29. Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

Previous Pick: Same

Even though Matt Birk has decided to come back for another season, the Ravens stick with Konz, whom they will groom behind Birk.

Konz is not a sexy pick, but he will provide stability at the center position as they transition away from the aging Birk. 

30. San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

Previous Pick: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

Perhaps the biggest combine riser is Stephen Hill. One of the biggest receivers in the draft at 6'3", Hill ran a blistering 4.36 official time, tied for the best among receivers. 

Hill is the latest in a line of big, athletic receivers to come out of Georgia Tech. Unfortunately for them, Paul Johnson's option attack has limited their game-day utilization and game tape and statistics as a result.

Hill was a dark horse to crack the first round before the combine, but his fantastic performance may make it a horse of a different color. He is raw, but the 49ers need wide receiver help.

31. New England Patriots

Pick: Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

Previous Pick: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

The Patriots replace one Andre with another as Carter is an aging veteran entering free agency.

Branch is also a dark horse to get into the first round, and I cannot see New England going with the likes of Mike Adams or Zach Brown. At 6'4" and 260 pounds, the defensive end fits in with the size Bill Belichick looks for at the position.

New England is a draft-day trader, so they may well opt to trade out of this spot (or the other, for that matter).

32. New York Giants

Pick: Mike Adams, RT, Ohio State

Previous Pick: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

The controversial prospect did not help himself with a poor combine showing. 

One team's loss is another team's gain as Adams falls to the Giants at a position of need, with Kareem McKenzie going on 33.

The Giants sure could use a tight end, and they very well may draft Orson Charles or Coby Fleener here. But games are won in the trenches, and the 6'7" offensive tackle from Ohio State is too good to pass up.

While he dropped far from his previous selection to the Chiefs at the 11th spot, a big part of the reason is Kansas City's pick of Dontari Poe in this mock.