UEFA Champions League: How Napoli Can Finish Off Chelsea

Napoli can knock Chelsea out of the Champions League. Whether or not they want to admit it.

Chances are, they will progress to the quarter-finals. Though they still won't admit they're favourites.

In the immediate aftermath of his side's 3-1 win over Chelsea at the Stadio Sao Paolo last week in the Champions League's last 16, Napoli boss Walter Mazzarri did his best to wrap up a week-long show of underdog posturing on the part of the home team.

Never mind that Mazzarri's men had entered the match as near-consensus favorites. He still came off as almost believable.

"This team keeps on surprising me," he said, moments after coming curiously close to calling Chelsea the favorite in the upcoming return leg as well.

"(Not scoring a fourth goal is) a pity because we would have been calmer with a three-goal lead," Mazzarri had said earlier. "Chelsea are very strong at home, so we need another great performance there."

As a pre-game strategy, the us-against-the-world routine is both charming and effective. And Mazzarri hasn't been the only Napoli man using it.

In the previous days, Ezequiel Lavezzi and Marek Hamsik had hailed the first leg as a "match of the season" against big, bad Chelsea. Afterward, superstar Edinson Cavani—who himself has long been linked with Chelsea—portrayed the result as one of giants and giant-killers.

All the self-deprecation must have carried with it more than a hint of nudge-nudge, wink-wink, as we now know.

For a team who supposedly saw themselves as longshot underdogs in the first leg, Napoli sure did know right where to hit Chelsea. After falling behind to an against-the-run-of-play Chelsea opener, Napoli swarmed the visitors' backline, creating chance after chance and eventually running out deserved 3-1 winners.

Mazzarri and his men will probably offer up similar self-deprecation in the days before the second leg in two weeks' time.

Don't buy it.

With last week's win, Napoli charted their blueprint for beating Chelsea. If they're smart, they'll follow their own lead on March 14.

After falling behind to an unlikely Chelsea opener, Napoli scored three decisive goals largely on the back of a simple strategy. Targeting one area of Chelsea's defense repeatedly, Napoli overloaded one side by exploiting the space left open by Chelsea right back Branislav Ivanovic's foraying offensive runs.

It worked brilliantly. All three goals came on the same side, along with a large concentration of Napoli's positive passing.

Next month's return leg may not provide such an opening. Chelsea, as Mazzarri and his players will surely be quick to remind us, are much better at Stamford Bridge and probably will have devoted some tactical planning to eliminating Napoli's advantage there.

At the same time, though, Chelsea will be forced to come out of their own half in an effort to erase their two-goal deficit. What's more, veteran Chelsea defender John Terry should still be out.

That combination should ensure some space for Napoli's superb trio of attackers—Hamsik, Cavani and Lavezzi, who was the first leg's MVP and has recently earned lavish praise from his manager—to exploit again.

Even if they find space in and around Chelsea's backline, Napoli can't let themselves become too stretched. If experience is any guide, they won't.

Keeping their shape will be especially important because of Napoli's use of a three-man backline. In their first trip to England this season, however, Napoli did an excellent job of using the midfield to shield the defense against Manchester City.

Assuming they take a similar approach in the second leg against Chelsea, the tie could come down to which team makes fewer mistakes. That was an issue for both teams (see points 2 and 5) in the first leg, though it was a competition Napoli clearly won.

With a beatable, somewhat error-prone defense as a potential liability, the Italians must emphasize discipline at Stamford bridge.

Napoli entered the first leg trying to convince Europe they were underdogs against a reeling Chelsea. On March 14, Mazzarri and company will presumably use a similar strategy—both before and during the match.

The first time around, The Guardian called it a "swashbuckling" performance that took advantage of Chelsea's "lack of maturity." If and when it happens again, even Napoli will have to admit that it was no surprise.