NCAA Tournament Projections: Projecting Every Seed, Bubble Teams Missing Out

For the last three weeks, I have been writing a Bleacher Report Bubble Watch, addressing which teams were currently on the bubble, and their projection on whether they were looked to be in the field for the NCAA tournament.

This week, however, I will be taking a different approach and giving you my projections for the NCAA Tournament if today was Selection Sunday complete with all 68 teams and their seeds.

No. 1 Seeds

Kentucky (SEC)

Syracuse (Big East) 

Kansas (Big 12)

Duke (ACC)

The first two are simple. Kentucky and Syracuse have firmly established themselves as the top two teams in the country. It will be hard to find anyone who argues that at this point in the season. 

The second two No. 1 seeds though are far more tricky. Kansas held on to knock off Missouri at home, which puts them in a pretty solid spot at 14-2 in the Big 12. Duke beat Michigan State early in the season, which gives them a slight edge for the moment.

However, don't count out the Spartans, Missouri or North Carolina, who all are in a good position to make pushes at No. 1 seeds. As usual, the conference tournaments will decide everything. 

No. 2 Seeds

Missouri (Big 12) 

Michigan State (Big Ten)

North Carolina (ACC)

Ohio State (Big Ten)

I mentioned three of the four teams in the previous slide, and they all are still in the running for No. 1 seeds. The fourth, Ohio State, is not. 

The Buckeyes lost to Wisconsin at home on Sunday, which gives the Big Ten title to Michigan State, something Ohio State would have really needed to secure a No. 1 seed.

The good news for OSU, as well as all of these teams, is that the three line is not particularly strong, so they're not in any serious trouble of moving down. 

No. 3 Seeds

Marquette (Big East)

Georgetown (Big East) 

Baylor (Big 12) 

Michigan (Big Ten) 

Not many people seem to really be paying attention to Marquette this season, but they have quietly moved into second place in the Big East at 13-3 and boast a 24-5 overall record. They currently have the strongest resume of all No. 3 seeds, and could easily sneak into the two line if one of the teams above them slips up.

The other three teams appear to be headed in the wrong direction, or are at best neutral. Baylor has lost three out of their last six, The Hoyas fell to Seton Hall last week, and Michigan lost their first home game of the season against Purdue on Saturday.

Fortunately for them, Florida inexplicably lost to Georgia on Saturday keeping all of those teams on the three line, for now. 

No. 4 Seeds

Florida (SEC)

Louisville (Big East) 

Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Notre Dame (Big East) 

The team to watch amongst this group is Wisconsin. The Badgers picked up a huge win over Ohio State on Sunday, and can still finish as high as second in the Big Ten. 

Wisconsin got beat twice by Iowa this year, which could be their biggest downfall seeding-wise, but still a top four line is not bad for Bo Ryan's squad. 

Florida has been extremely inconsistent this year, but no one, and I mean no one will want to play them come tournament time. With guards like Kenny Boyton, Bradley Beal and Erving Walker this team can light it up. 

The two Big East squads seem locked into the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in that conference in the committee's eyes, especially since Notre Dame lost to St. John's this weekend. 

No. 5 Seeds

Indiana (Big Ten)

Wichita State (MVC)

Murray State (OVC)

Florida State (ACC)

The five line is a particularly intriguing group of teams at the moment. 

You have Tom Creen's resurgent Indiana, who will be making their first appearance in the dance since 2008. The Wichita State Shockers are capable of beating any team in the country. Murray State, who is the most recognizable mid-major this season and sports a 28-1 overall record, is a threat.

Florida State, who has beat both North Carolina and Duke this season, looks like good bet for a No. 5 seed. 

Traditionally, five seeds have been prime for an upset in the opening round (although less so now with the new play-in rules), but if it is, this group of teams, I don't see it. All have Sweet 16 and maybe more.  

No. 6 Seeds

UNLV (MWC)

Temple (A-10)

Vanderbilt (SEC)

St. Mary's (WCC)

The Commodores of Vanderbilt have struggled immensely in recent years in the NCAA Tournament, being knocked off by the likes of Richmond, Siena and Murray State.

This year, they should not suffer such a fate. With players such as John Jenkins, Festus Ezeli and Jeremy Taylor, Vandy should make a dent in this year's tournament.

UNLV and St. Mary's are excellent shooting teams that can do real damage if they get hot and Temple once again is the class of the a A-10.

However, if the Rebels and Owls can't get it together in the last couple weeks of the year, they could see their seed take a tumble before the Big Dance comes around. 

No. 7 Seeds

Gonzaga (WCC)

Creighton (MVC)

San Diego State (MWC)

Memphis (C-USA) 

People seem to be forgetting that Memphis was a top 10 team in the preseason, but after a rough start early the Tigers seem to be getting it together just in time to make an impact in the tournament.  There are very few teams who can match their athleticism.

San Diego State was looking at a potential No. 4 or No. 5 seed before they have fallen apart in the last two weeks, but Creighton and Gonzaga are two of the best mid-majors in the country. If you haven't heard of Doug McDermott by now, you will in March.

No. 8 Seeds

Virginia (ACC)

New Mexico (MWC)

Southern Mississippi (C-USA)

Iowa State (Big 12) 

The key when looking at No. 8 and No. 9 seeds is which of them if they can win their first game, can really challenge and potentially knock off a No. 1 seed.

In this criteria, I particularly like New Mexico and Iowa State among this group. The Lobos stormed into the MWC lead before losing two straight, but I really like them (even more than the other two MWC teams) come tournament time. 

Iowa State's Fred Hoiberg deserves Big 12 coach of the year honors for what he's done with his group of transfers seemingly thrown together. He has brought the Cyclones back to relevance, remember this team has already beaten Kansas this year.

Having said all that, don't count out the Cavaliers or Golden Eagles either, both of which are capable of hanging with top ranked teams. 

No. 9 Seeds

Kansas State (Big 12)

Washington (Pac 12)

Purdue (Big Ten)

Alabama (SEC)

While all four of these teams would still be considered "on the bubble" they have made their impact enough lately to move them comfortably in right now and on the nine line.

Kansas State did it by sweeping Missouri, a testament to how dangerous they can be come tourney time. I also really like Alabama this season. The Crimson Tide have lost their share of games, but they are an excellent defensive ball club and Anthony Grant really knows how to coach.

No. 10 Seeds

Saint Louis (A-10)

California (Pac 12)

Connecticut (Big East) 

Arizona (Pac 12) 

I've ranted in the past about the deceptiveness of UConn's computer numbers, but as good as they are, the defending champions won't miss the NCAA Tournament unless the committee wants to abandon its precedent. 

Once their in, make no mistake, the Huskies can be dangerous. They showed that twice this year against Syracuse. 

Although the Pac 12 is way, way down this year, that doesn't mean California doesn't have a solid team, they do. I wouldn't think twice about taking the Golden Bears over an overrated No. 7 seed if this is where they end up.

No. 11 Seeds

Mississippi State (SEC)

West Virginia (Big East)

Cincinnati (Big East)

BYU (WCC)

For now, the eleven line consists of the teams who are sitting on the bubble, but barely miss out on the dreaded "last four in" line, which means they will have to win an extra game just to get in the field of 64.

None of these teams are in great shape. The top two are really heading downward, especially the Bulldogs who have now fallen all the way to 6-8 in the SEC after five straight losses.

Cincy could have helped themselves out in a huge way after beating Louisville, but they lost a tight one to South Florida (who is getting closer and closer themselves to sneaking in). Instead, Cincinnati's status will be very much in question come tournament time if they can't beat Marquette this week.

No. 12 Seeds

Harvard (Ivy)

Seton Hall (Big East) 

Northwestern (Big Ten)*

Xavier (A-10)*

Texas (Big 12)*

Miami (FL) (ACC)* 

*-denotes play-in game

Lots to talk about with this group of teams. 

Let's with the Harvard, who will most likely NOT get an at-large bid if they can't win the Ivy league. The Crimson lost to Penn this week which now keeps puts them tied in the loss column with the Quakers.

Remember, Harvard won't get a chance to earn an automatic bid to a tournament if they can't win the regular season title. Thus, their Cinderella hopes will come down to their final two games on the road against Columbia and Cornell.

The other five teams are the final five at-larges. Only the Pirates avoid getting the play-in.

I'll save the bubble discussion for my bubble articles, but let's just say this much. The bottom of the bubble is very, very close and none of these four teams are locks by any means. Northwestern barely sneaks in right now to their first big dance, but still haven't done anything overly impressive that screams at-large birth. 

Miami did very well to knock off Florida State to add to their Duke victory, which puts them on the right side of my bubble.

Xavier continues to somehow hang on despite their loss to UMass this week, and Texas saved their season with an overtime victory over Texas Tech on Saturday.

No. 13 Seeds

Oral Roberts (Summit) 

Drexel (CAA)

Iona (MAAC)

Long Beach State (Big West) 

With the new play-in rules, thirteen seeds could now potentially become the seed known for first-round upsets.

Just look at these four teams as an example. ORU beat Xavier by 22 when they were the good Xavier, No. 9 in the country. Whoever comes out of the CAA right now (assuming if its one of the top three teams) is a real dangerous threat.

Drexel, VCU and George Mason are very dangerous teams out of a conference that has produced two final four teams in recent years.

Iona is leading the nation in both points and assists per game. Long Beach State is my number one Cinderella team. The 49ers took San Diego State to overtime, and played Kansas and UNC to single digits earlier in the season.

Long story short, all of these teams are really, really good, and you do not want to see your team matched up with them in the NCAA tournament. 

No. 14 Seeds

Nevada (WAC)

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt) 

Davidson (Southern)

One particular thing I noticed when making this was that there is a ton of good mid-major teams this season. 

Parody has never been apparent in college basketball, but this year is even more than usual. Look at those No. 14 seeds, those are not your typical cupcake teams.

Would anyone really be surprised to see Belmont win a game in the tournament? I know I wouldn't.

What about Nevada? The Wolfpack are 23-5 and own a win over Washington. MTSU crushed UCLA by twenty early this season.

Perhaps the most surprising No. 14 seed is Davidson. The Wildcats beat Kansas at Kansas, lost to Vandy by four and played Duke tough at Cameron. 

They could very well move up a line to 13, but either way they can play with anybody, so watch out. 

Am I picking any these teams? Probably not.

But they will certainly make for some interesting match ups and early tests for teams with championship aspirations. 

No. 15 Seeds

Valparaiso (Horizon)

Long Island (NEC)

Akron (MAC)

Weber State (Big Sky)

Come to think of it, the No. 15 seeds aren't half bad this year, either. 

LIU has the third longest home winning streak in the country, Akron beat West Virginia on the road early in the year, and Valpo is playing in a conference that has produced the last two national runner ups.

But there is one name in particular you need to be familiar with in this group. Damian Lillard of Weber State. 

Lillard is second in the nation in scoring, and is regarded as the No. 1 available in next year's draft. This guy is good. If Weber State can win the Big Sky tournament, he is the kind of guy who can will his team to a opening round upset. 

No. 16 Seeds

UT-Arlington (Southland)

Bucknell (Patriot)

UNC Asheville (Big South)

Stony Brook (America East)*

Mississippi Valley State* (SWAC)

Savannah State* (MEAC)

Finally, we wrap up with the current crop of No. 16 seeds, according to my projections.

Which of these low majors has the best chance to make history and become the first team ever to upset a No. 1 seed?

Your guess is as good as mine on that one.

After all, there is a pretty good chance at least half of these teams won't win their respective conference tournaments and make it into the Big Dance in the first place.

However, I'm going with UT-Arlington, who is currently undefeated in the Southland conference. The Mavericks played Baylor relatively tough on the road early in the year, so I'll give them the best chance. Whichever two No. 16 seeds avoid the play-in games will certainly have the advantage. 

First 10 In/ Last 10 out

I'll close it out with some bubble talk to keep it fresh this week. So, here is my last 10 in and first 10 out as of February 27.

Last Ten In

1. Northwestern

2. Miami (FL)

3. Xavier

4. Texas

5. Seton Hall

6. Cincinnati

7. Mississippi State

8. West Virginia

9. BYU

10. Arizona

First Ten Out 

1. South Florida

2. Colorado State

3. St. Joseph's

4. Oregon

5. VCU

6. Dayton

7. Central Florida

8. Colorado 

9. Wyoming

10. Marshall