Cincinnati Reds: Can They Really Afford to Keep Joey Votto?

Spring training for the 2012 season is under way and one of the big questions looming over the Cincinnati Reds' administration is whether or not they can sign Joey Votto. Although his contract isn't up until 2013, it's a hot topic and one that will dictate the future of the team for quite some time. Let's analyze the situation and see how realistic a contract extension for Joey Votto is.

First we'll look at the Reds current financial situation. Including offseason additions, the Reds currently sport a projected payroll of $80 million. This is about $6 million below the median payroll from 2011. This means there's a little room to spend some money and still be very middle of the road in terms of payroll expense.

Now let's look at the contracts that are expiring in the next two years. Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips, Sean Marshall, Ryan Madson, Ryan Ludwick, Miguel Cairo and Willie Harris come off the books after this season. Rolen and Cairo will likely retire and it's unlikely they will pursue resigning Harris. Ludwick is a question mark and his re-signing will depend heavily on his success in left field this season.

Those six contracts coming off the books would give the Reds about 34.4 million dollars to play with. So we're left with Phillips, Sean Marshall and Ryan Madson as the three likely candidates for an extension.

As of today at 2 p.m. today, John Fay and Sean Marshall have reported that Marshall and the Reds are nearing a contract extension. Marshall will turn 30 this season and is one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, so expect his contract to be between three to five years and worth about $18-30 million.

Let's split the difference and say four years 24 million. That would be $6 million a year bringing the Reds current projected payroll to 85 million and their available funds for 2013 to 31.3 million. Keep that number in mind.

2014 Reds' free agents include Joey Votto, Bronson Arroyo, Bill Bray and Nick Masset. The two contracts of Votto and Arroyo alone are worth $23.5 million; Bray and Masset are still subject to arbitration, so I expect them to receive one year deals.

Now, take that 31.3 million for 2013 and the 23.5 million for 2014, that gives the Reds about 54.8 million dollars of expiring contracts to spread around between Phillips, Votto, Madson and any players who will see their salary increase as stipulated in their contract, or in arbitration for a full list of those players visit this site.

I believe Madson will be a one-hit wonder with the Reds. His contract does have a one-year mutual option but with the extension for Marshall in the works, he could end up being the Reds closer of the future.

So with Madson out of the picture, assume there's 54.8 million for those players other than Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. Those two alone will command probably $32-35 million a year leaving the Reds with $19 million to account for big salary jumps for the likes of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake and Drew Stubbs and others.

In short, it's possible, but not likely. I want to believe Bob Castellini and Walt Jocketty will open up the pocket book for both but with the Reds history of being a low budget franchise, I doubt it.

Locking up both could put the Reds in a situation very similar to when Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn locked up a big portion of the payroll and handcuffed the rest of the organization.

I think I speak for all Reds fans when I say that I don't want to see the team revert to the years between 2000 and 2010.

Both players are reportedly in talks, with the team, to extend their contracts and I believe it will come down two things, which player is willing to give up a little more on their end in order to stay in Cincinnati and whether or not the team competes in 2012.

If the team struggles, then Phillips may not be extended. This would all but guarantee the extension of Votto. However, if the team makes a deep playoff run in 2012 then Phillips will likely be extended.

If Phillips is extended and the team competes in 2013 then Votto will have to be kept around through the season in order to make a run at a title. If that happens then he will likely be lost to free agency. If they re-up on Phillips' contract and the team flounders in 2013 then Votto will likely be traded.

My opinion is that it's one or the other. In a previous article, I wrote about how the organization must extend Phillips. However, I wrote that article assuming the Reds couldn't afford to keep Votto. If they can, then I would certainly bend on my "must extend Phillips" position.

Expect this saga to play out all season long and possibly into the 2013 season. However it plays out, I think the Reds will stay in pretty good shape to compete within the division.