Indianapolis Colts: Gauging the Flight Risk for Colts Free Agents

The 2011 season was a meltdown that we've really never seen in professional sports. The Indianapolis Colts have to make some major changes in the offseason to turn around a horrid 2-14 football team.

What makes this crazy to think about is the Colts have been to two Super Bowl's since the 2006 regular season, and have put together a string of 10-plus wins in a season that we've really never seen.

Blame all of this on last season and Bill Polian.

The Colts went from a AFC South division title and a Wild Card Round exit in the playoffs in the 2010 season, to a 2-14 record this past year, and broke many records that they didn't ever want to break.

Normally teams will lose players to retirement, free agency or injuries, but there's never this big of a change of culture with the loss of just one player that quickly.

That's why this offseason Colts owner Jim Irsay keeps saying the phrase "new era in Colts football." The VP Bill Polian is gone, the coaching staff is gone and most likely the face of the franchise will be gone.

If Manning goes, I believe this list of eight players will go too. Many of them are no brainers, but some of them the Colts don't need to keep if they're going to be rebuilding.

This slideshow is why the other 31 NFL franchises should be a little wary of signing these free agents.

Reggie Wayne

Reggie Wayne is one of two Colts players that are free agents that have the most to offer. I would love to see Wayne back in a Colts uniform, but if Peyton Manning is released, I don't think the franchise would want to spend the money and bring him back.

Wayne has been in the NFL 11 years with all being played in Indianapolis.

Wayne had 75 receptions last year for 960 yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers aren't too bad for many receivers, but for Reggie Wayne those aren't up to his standards.

The reason to be a tad wary of signing Reggie Wayne is one he's entering his 12th NFL season, and two his numbers were the worst he's had since 2003.

Wayne is slowing down a bit. I don't think he's going to be a liability by any means, but if another franchise signs him, they need to use him right.

He has 862 receptions for his career with 11,708 yards and 73 touchdowns. Those stats are extremely good, but he's declined last year and is aging.

He's going to be a risk, but not a very big one if the money is right.

Pierre Garcon

With Garcon turning down a recent offer from the Colts, I don't think he will be returning next season. He simply wants too much money, and the Colts aren't willing to dish out what he wants.

For teams looking to sign Garcon, based off last year, he's a solid receiver to sign. Where he becomes a flight risk, is he did this on a bad football team as teams forced the dismal Colts quarterbacks to look his way.

Garcon has had a solid four years in Indy, but many of his numbers are due to teams not giving him much attention due to Reggie Wayne's ability to hurt teams. Wayne got most of the coverage while Garcon was left many times single covered.

Another reason why Garcon may be a risk is due to him dropping a ton of easy passes.

Many Colts fans remember Garcon the last two years dropping tons of easy catches, but catching the hard ones. He can't be inconsistent like that on his new team due to him wanting to be a No. 1 receiver. The first option's aren't supposed to be inconsistent.

If he can back up next season with one he had this year, then Garcon will be a solid pick up. Be wary, though, of his risk of dropping passes.

Robert Mathis

Mathis like Reggie Wayne is the other player that's a free agent from the Colts that I'm not too concerned about. He's a solid Pro Bowl defensive lineman that can help any team.

Where he can be a slight risk is his size.

The Colts are looking to move from a base 4-3 to a base 3-4 next season. Most of the other NFL teams have gone to a 3-4 scheme as well. This affects Mathis due to most 3-4 schemes have big beefy linemen upfront.

Mathis is very undersized to play a down lineman in a 3-4 scheme. That means he would have to take on a new role of an outside linebacker.

That's a big risk to move a player entering his 10th NFL season to a new role nearing the end of his career.

Mathis' stats are in no doubt remarkable. He's had 395 tackles in his career, and 83.5 sacks. What's even more remarkable is he's had at least 9.5 sacks in a season every year except two (03, 07).

He's coming off of a 43 tackle and 9.5 sack season last year.

Another reason why Mathis is a risk is due to him getting older. As stated above, he's entering his 10th NFL season. Most guys don't make it that long.

Mathis has had nine years of getting beat up and pounded as an undersized lineman. That can take a toll on a player's body.

The risk is how much does he have left in the tank?

Anthony Gonzalez

Anthony Gonzalez would be a huge risk for another team to sign. He's had major injury problems the last few seasons and was actually healthy last year, but made no catches.

Gonzalez has played five years with 99 catches, 1,307 yards, and only seven touchdowns. The problem with those stats are most of these contributions came in his first two seasons as a Colt.

In 2007 and 2008, Gonzalez combined for 94 receptions, 1,240 yards and seven touchdowns. Since then, he has five catches for 67 yards and no touchdowns.

He missed a big chunk of time in 2010, and all of 2009 due to injuries.

With his decline in production and being injury prone, I think Gonzalez is a huge risk. I wouldn't be surprised if the best deal Gonzalez can get is a practice squad contract.

Jacob Tamme

Jacob Tamme would be another player that would be a risk to sign. Many will point to his 2010 season when he stepped in for an injured Dallas Clark and had a career year with 67 receptions, 631 yards and four touchdowns.

This year, when he had a chance to step up in a bigger role, he failed. Tamme only had 19 receptions for 177 yards and one touchdown.

Without the best quarterback to ever play the game to make him look good, Tamme is a below-average tight end. The problem with that is, unless he follows Manning to a new team, there's not really any other quarterback that can make him look that good.

Another risk to sign Tamme is he's a run blocking tight end not a playmaking one. Many teams will once again look to his 2010 production and think they can make him a playmaker, but in reality there's no other Peyton Manning's out there.

That's a big risk to take, especially when in his first two seasons he only had a combined six receptions for 47 yards.

Ryan Diem

Ryan Diem in my mind is another big risk. At one point in his career he was a solid offensive lineman, but he's been injured a lot the last few seasons, and isn't as productive.

Another reason he's a risk is due to his age.

Diem is 32 years old and with his injuries and the wear and tear on his body from playing so long, I don't think he has much left in him.

The final reason to why Diem is a risk is that he's so used to blocking for a great quarterback, he won't have that ability to do so anymore.

A lot of his weaknesses were exposed without having Manning behind center last year, and he won't thrive without a good quarterback hiding the line's mistakes.

Jeff Saturday

Jeff Saturday won't be much of a risk other than his age.

Saturday has been in the league since Peyton Manning's arrival, and really has shown to be burnt out. I don't think Saturday will return to playing next season without Manning.

Saturday is 36 years old and has played in almost every down. He hasn't been injured very seriously at all in his career and that's a huge advantage, but the wear and tear he takes every season is.

I don't think there will be much value out there for a former Pro Bowl center. His age is just too big of a risk.

Jacob Lacey

Outside of Anthony Gonzalez, there's no bigger risk to take in free agency than Jacob Lacey. I thought for most of this season, that Lacey was the worst cornerback in the history of the NFL.

I got sick and tired of seeing a corner's inability to defend someone tight and play 10-15 yards off the line of scrimmage every down. Lacey was beat on slant routes every week as receivers would have career days on him it seemed.

Lacey has 221 tackles in his three-year career with five interceptions.

He's a huge risk for another team to pick as he can't defend anyone. I know if I was a GM, you couldn't pay me enough money to take on Lacey.