UFC 144 Predictions: Why You Should Bet on Ryan Bader to Defeat Rampage Jackson

Ryan Bader is a 2-to-1 underdog in his fight with Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, but that's not going to stop him from playing spoiler tonight at UFC 144.

When this fight was made, I thought Jackson had it in the bag, but because of what's happened recently with Jackson, I'm not as confident as I once was.

Maybe this fight isn't the "gimme" fight that fans originally thought it would be. But then again, it's crazy to imagine Jackson suffering a loss at the hands of Bader. After all, Bader isn't in Jackson's league, so how in the world is he going to defeat him in Japan?

These are the reasons why Bader will pull off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history.

Rampage Missed Weight

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson has a tremendous amount of experience fighting in Japan, yet he missed weight by five pounds.

It's not my place to say that Jackson isn't taking this fight as seriously as he needs to, but I know one thing for sure: Ryan Bader isn't playing around.

The last time we saw somebody miss weight this badly was at UFC 142 when Anthony Johnson missed weight by 11 pounds, and you saw how Vitor Belfort reacted on fight night.

I expect Bader to have that same desire tonight against Jackson.

Rampage Doesn't Care About Wins and Losses

In the video displayed on this slide, Rampage Jackson made it clear that he doesn't care if he beats Bader.

All Jackson wants to do is put on an exciting show for the Japanese fans, so what is he going to do when Bader takes him down and frustrates him?

Jackson's temper has been building with the UFC about giving him wrestlers to fight, and if Bader's strategy is to constantly instigate the takedown, Jackson's temper might get him into trouble.

Jackson might react unusually by throwing caution to the wind and headhunting Bader. I firmly believe that Jackson will do whatever he can to make this fight exciting, even if it's at his expense.

The Mystery Injury

In his post-weigh-in interview with Ariel Helwani, Rampage Jackson stated that he suffered an injury in his camp that eventually led to him being overweight.

Jackson said it stopped him from running, so one would speculate that he might have injured his knee or leg. If that is the case, then it should make things a lot easier for Bader tonight.

It's kind of hard to stop a takedown when one of your legs is injured, you know?

Bader's Wrestling Ability

Take a good look at this Ryan Bader takedown instructional video, because you could be seeing a whole lot of this tonight against Jackson.

Bader might initially stand and trade punches with Jackson, but you know that he's got to have this takedown somewhere in his game plan.

Jackson has great takedown defense, but as you know, Bader was an All-American wrestler at Arizona State. Wrestling is his bread and butter, and I'm not so sure if Jackson can stop Bader's double-leg.

Did Rampage Get Up for This Fight?

I originally thought that Rampage Jackson would be pumped to fight in Japan again, but I just don't know if he's giving Bader the respect he deserves.

That just wasn't the same Jackson that I'm used to seeing at the weigh-in yesterday. Instead of being grumpy and looking like he was going to kill somebody, he was smiling.

Which leads me to my next question: Will Jackson have that mean streak in him tonight? Will he come to the ring howling and looking to knock Bader's head off?

I certainly hope so, and if this fight doesn't go Jackson's way, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jackson call it quits. It's no secret that he's frustrated with fighting wrestlers, and Jackson knows that Bader's best bet in this fight is to get the takedown.

Basically, what I'm getting at is that maybe Jackson isn't mentally prepared for another frustrating fight.

All of these questions give the betting man more incentive to bet for the underdog, and Bader could very well be on the verge of the biggest win in his MMA career.